HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—(5:25 am) Mostly weaker: CH, -$.0025; SH, -$.0025; WH, -$.0450; KWH, -$.0250
• MACRO:  Markets are in a holding pattern, awaiting new details from the latest round of trade talks between the U.S. and China.  Asia: Mostly firm--Nikkei, +0.10%; Shanghai, +0.05%; Hang Seng, -0.42%. EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, unch%; FTSE, -0.47%; CAC, -0.34%.  WALL STREET: Futures are weaker: DOW, -31; S&P, -4.50; NAS, -8.25. EXTERNALS: March crude: +$0.52 @ $56.11; Gold:  +$11.20 @ $1,333;Mar $ Index, -0.010 @ 96.73 
• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, cool fronts continue sweep northward and dissipate every few days over the next two weeks, triggering scattered thunderstorms in varying areas at varying times, producing widespread coverage of near- and above-normal rainfall of 2.50” to 5.00”.  Hot weather in Argentina this week breaks Thu.-Fri., accompanied by scattered thunderstorms over Thu.-Mon. (Feb. 21-25); rainfall totals of 1.00” to 1.50” affect most corn and soybeans

·       CH, dn $.0025 @ $3.7450; CK, dn $.0025 @ $3.8250.  Friday’s trade found the funds even      

• SH, dn $.0025 @ $9.0725; SK, dn $.0025 @ $9.2125.  Funds: Bought 2 SB, 1 K SBM even 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $.96, -1; LY, $1.47
• WH, dn $.0425 @ $5.00; WK, dn $.0425 @ $5.0275.  The funds closed out the week, liquidating 4 K                              ​    

CORN/SORGHUM

·   &nb​sp;   Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 53.0 mbu needed; 29.3 last week.  Milo—2.4 needed; 3.3 last week

·       Consultant: In Argentina, the corn production estimate for 2018/19 is unchanged this week at 42.0 MMT.  Approximately 5% of the crop has surplus soil moisture vs. 7% last week.   The corn in general is ~60% pollinating

• T-storm Weather: In Argentina, dry weather prevails until a cool front triggers scattered thunderstorms in southern corn areas Thu.-Fri., central Sat.-Sun., and north Mon.-Tue.; generalized totals of 1.00”-1.50” over Feb. 21-25

·       The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, Growing Locally, Selling Globally, will be held this week on Feb. 21-22

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 36.0 mbu needed; 39.1 last week

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil, increased rainfall through late-month slows soybean harvesting; however, it arrives late or too-late in the north where the sensitive period for soybeans closes over the next few weeks

·       Consultant: In Brazil, the soybean production estimate for 2018/19 is unchanged this week at 113.0 MMT.  The harvest is 36% complete compared to 17% last year and 19% for the 5-year average according to AgRural

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 27.2 mbu needed; 20.7 last week

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., wet conditions continue this week for SRW wheat in the Delta as more systems pass

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLH19, +$0.52 @ $56.11; EBJ, -$0.09 @ $66.41; EBJ-QCLJ, -$0.58;RBH, -.0051; NGH, +.007; HOH, -0.0084

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.01875 @ $1.3375; basis values mostly weaker: New York, -$.00375 @ $.07250; Gulf, -$.00625 @ $.06750; Dallas, +$.00875 @ $.06250; Tampa, -.00125 @ $.15250; LA, -$.00125 @ $.18250   

·       Ethanol RINs, firmer: 2017’s, +0.25 @ 18 ½ -19; 2018’s,+0.75 @ 19 ½-20; 2019’s, +0.75 @ 22 – 22 ½                                       

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·       The March RBOB/March ethanol spread widened $.0614 on Friday to+$.2439    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            &nbs​p;                &n​bsp;         

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• Choice boxed beef increased 78-cents on Friday to $216.85, and is $1.50 higher compared to a week ago
• January USDA Cattle on Feed report, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, will be released on Feb. 22

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 39-cents on Fri. to $61.87, and is $1.83 lower versus last week

• CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.22 on Fri. to $55.02.  April futures were $0.75 higher and are $4.505 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather