HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mostly lower:  CZ, +$.0075; SX, -$.0075; WZ, -$.01; KWZ, -$.0050 

·       What caught my eye:  28-year low for corn harvest progress for the week just ended is 10%; results this afternoon should be a little better than that but in the lower 25% of the historical range

·       Awaiting US/PRC trade talks; fear U.S. economic weakness is spreading.  ASIA: Easier--Nikkei, -0.16%; Shanghai, closed; Hang Seng, closed.  EUROPE: Mostly lower —DAX, +0.02%; FTSE, -0.02%; CAC, -0.11%.  WALL STREET—Futures are lower-- DOW, -103; S&P, -11.50; NAS, -30.00.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: +$0.31 @ $53.11; Gold: -$5.20 @ $1,508; $ Index:+.096 @ 98.904

• Weather: Mostly dry weather occurs across the western U.S. Corn Belt through Wednesday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop on Thursday, with some moderate to heavy totals favoring southern and eastern areas.  Temps average mostly above normal through Thursday.  Dry weather is forecast for the eastern Corn Belt Monday into Thursday, before scattered showers develop on Friday.  Temps average near to above normal today, before warming to above normal Tuesday-Friday 
• CZ, up $.0075 @ $3.8550; CH, up $.0050 @ $3.9750.  The funds sold an estimated 5 K on Friday         
• SX, dn $.0075 @ $9.1550; SF, dn $.01 @ $9.2925.  Funds: Bot 4 SB, 2 SBM, & sold 2 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.69, -35; LY, $1.58
• WZ, dn $.01 @ $4.8950; WH, dn $.0075 @ $4.9675.  Fund buying at the end of the week was 1 K       

CORN/SORGHUM

• Consultant: Crop Progress report to peg U.S. corn Good/Excellent at 57%, unch v. last week but below 68% last year
• Weather: Dry conditions or just some light precipitation is forecast for the western U.S. Corn Belt Friday-Saturday.  Moderate to heavy rain is forecast for the eastern Corn Belt on Friday, followed by dry weather on Saturday

·       ATI Research: U.S. corn harvest from Sep. 29 to Oct. 6 on average increases 8% to 27%; this year, however, progress is projected at 17-18% complete, which will also be well behind last year’s 33% pace

·       Through Oct. 4, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for December 2019 corn futures has averaged $3.8844

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• Consultant: Crop Progress report to peg soybean Good/Excellent at 55%, unch v. last week but below 68% last year
• Weather: Dry conditions or just some light precipitation is forecast for the western U.S. Corn Belt Friday-Saturday.  Moderate to heavy rain is forecast for the eastern Corn Belt on Friday, followed by dry weather on Saturday

·       Through Oct. 4, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for November 2019 soybean futures has averaged $9.1531

·       Weather: Dryness is becoming of increasing concern for reproductive winter wheat in Western Australia

• ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat planting on average increases ~15% from Sep. 29-Oct. 6 to 54%; seen at 49% this year

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLX19, +$0.31 @ $53.11; EBZ, +$0.25 @ $58.62; EBZ-QCLZ, -.06; RBX, -.0005; NGX, -.028; HO​X, +.0104

·       Chicago ethanol fell $.1045 on Friday to $1.5525; basis values were firmer:  NYC, +$.0520 @ +$.04250; Gulf, +$.0195 @ -$.0025; Dallas, +$.0345 @ -$.0225; Tampa, +$.06450 @ +$.1275; LA, +$.0795 @ $.16250

·       Ethanol RINs firmed with 2018’s,+-$0.75 @ 13-17; 2019’s, +.50 @ 21 ½ -27                                               ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;

·       The November RBOB/November ethanol spread added another $.1136 on Friday to $.1854/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        &nb​sp;              

·       Choice boxed beef eased 10-cents on Friday to $211.96 and is 62-cents lower compared to a week ago

• Cash cattle on Friday traded anywhere from $3 to $4 higher than last week's weighted average in the South at $107

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 76-cents on Fri. to $74.44 but is still $2.14 higher versus last week 

·         CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.51 on Fri. to $59.23.  October futures declined $0.025 but are $3.17 above the index                           <​/wbr>

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather