HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mostly lower:  CZ, -$.02; SX, +$.0250; WZ, -$.0550; KWZ, -$.0275 

·       What caught my eye:  Most soybean and corn producing  areas in Brazil will be near normal to drier than normal into mid-November while Central and Northern Argentina will benefit from heavy rains, but not drought-stressed wheat in the south

·       Once again, news is scarce; optimism over possible U.S./China trade discussions?  ASIA: Higher--Nikkei,+0.30%; Shanghai, +0.85%; Hang Seng, +0.84%.  EUROPE: Mostly weak—DAX, +0.26%; FTSE, -.34%; CAC, -0.04%.  WALL STREET—Futures are higher-- DOW, +67; S&P, +22.25; NAS, +5.75.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$0.22 @ $56.44; Gold: +$3.50 @ $1,508; $ Index: -.072 @ 97.759

• T-storm Weather®: unseasonable mildness affects most areas through today.  Thereafter, a strong cool front slowly sags southward and causes temps to plummet over Tue.-Thu., dropping minimums to the 30s-40s for several days, inducing frost in corn and soybean  areas of  and adjacent the northwest Corn Belt.  Regarding rainfall, heavy totals of 1.00” to 3.00” affect the northwest half of the Corn Belt and much of the Plains through Wed.-Thu. as a strong system and the cool front slowly pass
• CZ, dn $.02 @ $3.8475; CH, dn $.0175 @ $3.9550.  Fund activity was said to be even on Friday                
• SX, up $.0250 @ $9.2275; SF, up $.0225 @ $9.3675.  Funds: Sold 6  SB; 3 K SBM & 3 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.88, +4; LY, $1.41
• WZ, dn $.0550 @ $5.1225; WH, dn $.0475 @ $5.1875.  Managed money buying in wheat was estimated at 2 K            

CORN/SORGHUM

• USDA Crop Progress report expected to show corn Good/Excellent crop ratings at 55-57% versus 56% last week.  Harvest is estimated to be near 40% compared to 30% last week, 61% last year and the 5-year average of 61%
• T-storm Weather®: temps briefly warm next weekend, but another cool front follows a few days later that will induce more frost across a wider area next Mon. and Tue. mornings.  A few days of drying follow the exit of rain on Thu.

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 39.6 mbu needed; 20.9 last week.  Milo—2.0 needed; 0.8 last week

·       Through Oct. 25, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for December 2019 corn futures has averaged $3.9020

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• USDA Crop Progress report to peg soybean harvest near 60% v. 46% last week, 69% last year & the 5-year avg. of 78%
• T-storm Weather®: temps briefly warm next weekend, but another cool front follows a few days later that will induce more frost across a wider area next Mon. and Tue. mornings.  A few days of drying follow the exit of rain on Thu.

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybean, 34.2 mbu needed; 47.6 last week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.1 mbu needed; 20.8 last week

• T-storm Weather®: 0.50"-1.00" of rain falls in Victoria and New South Wales, Australia Nov. 2-3, but likely arrive too late for much benefit on wheat 

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLZ19, -$0.226 @ $56.44; EBZ, -$0.17 @ $61.85; EBZ-QCLZ, +.03; RBZ, -.0028; NGZ, +.075; HOZ, -.0017

·       Chicago ethanol rose 4 ½ cents on Friday to $1.57/gal; basis values were weaker:  NYC, -$.0150 @ +$.07; Gulf, -$.0050 @ +$.05; Dallas, -$.0050 @ +.07; Tampa, -$.0250 @ +$.17; LA, -$.0250 @ +$.25

·       Ethanol RINs were mixed: 2018’s, unch @ 6 -8; 2019’s, -.125 @ 15 ½ -16; 2020’s, +.3750 @ 24 ½ -25 ¼                             &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                    

·       The November RBOB/November ethanol spread lost $.0132 as it tightened in to $.2000/gallon  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                              &n​bsp;        

&midd​ot;       Choice boxed beef eased 18-cents on Friday to $225.44 but is still up $7.40 compared to a week ago    

• Cattle on Feed:Oct. 1 on feed, 98.9% (98.9% avg est); Sep placed, 102.0% (101.5%); Marketed in Sep, 101.1% (101.1%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $2.64 on Friday to $76.21 but is still 80-cents lower vs. last week

·       CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.40 on Fri. to $65.09.  December futures gained $0.375 but are still $0.165 below the index              

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®