HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mostly lower:  CZ, -$.0125; SX, +$.0150; WZ, -$.0150; KWZ, -$.0450
• What caught my eye:  NASS people clearly over-stated last fall’s soybean crop to the tune of 116 million bushels. Some of the same issues may have resulted in the 2^nd largest summer feed/residual use ever and a 70%/430 mbu increase over LY.  Maybe?

·       Again, a slow news day with U.S. futures higher.  ASIA: Mostly firm--Nikkei, +0.59%; Shanghai, closed; Hang Seng, closed.  EUROPE: Weaker —DAX, -0.06%; FTSE, -0.35%; CAC, -0.13%.  WALL STREET—Futures are higher-- DOW, +71; S&P, +7.75; NAS, +26.75.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: +$0.53 @ $54.50; Gold:  +$1.20 @ $1,474; $ Index: +.079 @ 99.456

• T-storm Weather®: unseasonable mildness through Thursday across the central U.S. produces more rain across much of the Plains and northwest two-thirds of the Corn Belt, including heavy totals in / near IA, NE, and WI.  Coolness produces frost on corn and soybeans in the Dakotas and northwest Corn Belt Thu. and Fri., and potentially a wider area next Mon. and Tue., but unlikely killing freezes
• CZ, dn $.0125 @ $3.8675; CH, dn $.01 @ $3.9650.  2^nd largest summer feed/residual = Funds buy 30,000 K          
• SX, up $.0150 @ $9.0759; SF, up $.0125 @ $9.2075.  Funds: Bought 20 SB, 4 SBM, & 5 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.64, -6; LY, $1.55
• WZ, dn $.0150 @ $4.9425; WH, dn $.0125 @ $5.0125.  The funds bought 6 K 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       ATI Research: Grain Stocks report suggests JJA corn feed/resid of 1.012 bbu rivals 04/05 as largest summer total ever

·       U.S. corn crop is rated 57% Good/Excellent, unchanged from last week but below 69% last year.  Corn mature is 43% vs. 84% last year and the 5-year avg. of 73%.  Corn harvest is 11% vs. 25% last year and the 5-year avg. of 19%

·       U.S. sorghum crop is rated 65% Good/Excellent, unchanged versus last week but well above 54% last year

• T-storm Weather®: heavy rain totals of 1.00” to 3.00” affect the northwest half of the Corn Belt and much of the Plains through Wed.-Thu. as a strong cool front slowly passes; wettest in a swath from eastern NE through IA and WI

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• ATI Research: after the USDA Grain Stocks report adjustments, projected soybean 19/20 carry-out falls to 533 mbu

·       U.S. soybean crop is rated 55% Good/Excellent, up a point from last week but below 68% last year.  Dropping leaves is 55% vs. 81% last year & the 5-year avg of 76%.  Soybean harvest is 7% vs. 22% last year & the 5-year avg. of 20%

• T-storm Weather®: frost Wed. and Thu. in soybean areas of and adjacent the Dakotas and northwest Corn Belt
• ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to range from 13-20 mbu per week short-term
• U.S. winter wheat planting is 39% vs. the 5-year avg. of 38%; spring wheat harvest at 90% vs. the avg. of 99%

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLX19, +$0.53 @ $54.50; EBZ, +$0.61 @ $59.86; EBZ-QCLZ, +.10; RBX, +.0223; NGX, -.016; HOX, +.0182

·       Chicago ethanol soared $.1150/gallon post-USDA report to $1.64 yesterday; basis values were weaker:  NYC, -$.0550 @ $.0000; Gulf, -$.0350 @ $.01; Dallas, -$.0850 @ -$.06; Tampa, -$.0850 @ $.06; LA, -$.0550 @ $.10

·       Ethanol RINs were down with 2018’s, -$1.75 @ 7 ½ -9; 2019’s, -2.25 @ 16 ½-18                                &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;               

·&n​bsp;      The October RBOB/October ethanol collapsed $.1415 to $.0329/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                      ​; 

• Choice boxed beef was 14-cents lower on Monday at $212.44 and is down $4.01 versus last week    
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price gained $3.01 last week to $104.63/cwt but is $5.72 lower v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was up 75-cents on Mon. at $73.05 and is $3.52 higher versus a week ago 

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $45.36/cwt vs. last week’s $43.50, last month’s $40.65 and last year’s $35.73                         &nbs​p; 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather