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TRENDS Mostly lower CU, Down 15, SU, Up 4, WU, Down 2

August 13, 2019 07:12 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Mostly lower:  CU, -$.1375; SU, +$.0525; WU, -$.02; KWU, -$.0175.  Del’y: SB: 182; SBM: 66; SBO: 25
  • What caught my eye: Various comments---“The acreage story is settled (+/- 1 million)”; or, Lance Honig, NASS crop chief . . . prevent plant numbers were “not directly factored into our estimates” in yesterday’s WASDE (Bloomberg).  Time will tell . . .

·       Hong Kong unrest; Argentina Peso crashes; state of U.S. economy? Asia: Down--Nikkei, -1.11%; Shanghai, -0.63%; Hang Seng, -2.10%.  EUROPE: Down—DAX, -0.99%; FTSE, -0.59%; CAC, -0.65%.  WALL STREET—Futures are again, lower: DOW, --70; S&P, -8.00; NAS, -34.75.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: +$0.05 @ $55.90Gold:  +$26.40 @ $1,544; $ Index+.06 @ 97.44

·       T-storm Weather®: The central U.S. remains sandwiched between heat to the southwest and coolness to the northeast over the next two weeks, causing temps to fluctuate but average close to normal.  Near-normal rainfall is also probable, aiding some corn and soybeans, but leaving others drier than ideal; highest coverage affects the Corn Belt through today as a quasitropical wave passes, followed by some thunderstorms along the edge of fluctuating heat over Aug. 15-20

  • CU, dn $.1375 @ $3.7150; CZ, dn $.12 @ $3.8075.  Larger than expected crop leads to 15 K in fund selling, others say it was 60 K      
  • SU, up $.0525 @ $8.7150; SX, up $.05 @ $8.8425.  Funds: Sold 6 SB, 4 K SBM, & bot 1 K SBO.  Board Crush: $1.06, +2; LY, $1.79
  • WU, dn $.02 @ $4.6975; WZ, dn $.02 @ $4.7425.  The Funds were estimated to have sold 13 K          

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn crop is rated 57% Good/Excellent, unch v. last week but below 70% last year.  Crop development remains well behind normal: dough is at 39% vs. 71% last year & the 5-year avg. of 61%.  Dent: 7% vs. 24% last year & 16% avg.

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2019 U.S. corn crop is 167.5 bpa versus August USDA projection of 169.5.  U.S. corn ending stocks for 19/20 are now forecast at 2.155 bbu (USDA at 2.181)

  • T-storm Weather®: Rain ends west to east into mid-week, before returning in NE Thu. night.  Rainfall then focuses on / near IA, MN, and WI for several days as warmth further expands before breaking next Mon.-Tue.   

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean crop rated 54% Good/Excellent, steady vs. last week but below 66% last year.  Blooming is at 82% v. 95% last year & the 5-year avg. of 93%, while setting pods is at 54% v. 83% last year & the 5-year avg. of 76%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield est. for 2019 U.S. soybean crop is 47.8 bpa vs. August USDA projection of 48.5.  U.S. soybean ending stocks for 19/20 are now forecast at 832 mbu (USDA at 755)

  • ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat crop est. is dn 5 mbu to 554.  Harvest is at 8% vs. 32% last year & 5-year avg. of 30%$

·       T-storm Weather®: Drought further intensifies over the next 7 to 10 days forAustralia wheat

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLV19, +$0.05 @ $54.90; EBV, -$0.13 @ $58.45; EBV-QCLV-.19; RBV,+.0018; NGV, +.004HOV, +.0034

·       Chicago ethanol fell $.0830 to $1.37450 on Monday; basis values were mostly firmer: NYC, +$.0155 @ $.1230; Gulf, -$.0020 @ $.09550; Dallas, +$.0430 @ $.16550; Tampa, +$.0270 @ $.27550; LA, +$.0430 @ $.2455

·       Ethanol RINs were sharply lower again: 2018’s down 5.50 @ 4 -6 and 2019’s 3.50 lower @ 11 -13                                      ​;                        ​                        ​

·       The September RBOB/September ethanol spread widened $.0972 to $.3292/gallon; trading $.3690 this a.m.  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             ​;          

  • ​ Choice boxed beef increased $2.25 on Monday to $218.62 and is up $3.92 compared to a week ago
  • 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $1.45 v. last week to $112.37/cwt but is $1.39 higher v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 39-cents on Mon. to $88.98 and is up $2.56 versus last week  

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $34.34/cwt vs. last week’s $33.81, last month’s $38.79 & last year’s $20.92

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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