HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mostly lower: CK, -$.0025; SK, +$.0125; WK, -$.03; KWK, unch 
• What caught my eye: Steller corn exports, not so with beans; somewhat surprised at trade ideas expecting planting progress to be in the 16-20% range.  Del’y: SBM, 300; SBO, 703; RR, 352; C, 856; O, 130; SB, 453; SRW, 1,016
• Mixed opening, will rising oil prices stifle the market rally? Mostly lower--Nikkei, closed; Shanghai, +0.52%; Hang Seng, -0.65%.  EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -0.07%; FTSE, -0.19%; CAC, -0.38%.  WALL STREET—Mostly lower --DOW, +1; S&P, -1.00; NAS, -8.50.  EXTERNALS: June crude: +$0.64 @ $64.14;Gold:  +$5.50 @ $1,288; $ Index: -0.221 @ 96.300
• T-storm Weather: In the U.S., an onslaught of weather systems produce widespread coverage of above-normal rainfall over the next two weeks, including rain in varying areas every single day, and likely causing corn and spring wheat planting to fall far behind schedule by mid-May.  April will have been the 9th consecutive month of above-normal precipitation in the Corn Belt for the first time in more than 125 years, and June-April will be the wettest in more than 125 years
• CK, dn $.0025 @ $3.5175; CN, dn $.0125 @ $3.6050.  The funds were said to be even in Monday’s trading    
• SK, up $.0125 @ $8.4875; SN, up $.0050 @ $8.6125.  Funds: Sold 5 SB, 4 SBM, bot 4 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.13, +4; LY, $1.59
• WK, dn $.03 @ $4.2375; WN, dn $.04 @ $4.3125.  The funds sold 8 K on Monday    

CORN/SORGHUM

• USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of April 28 at 15% vs. 15% last year and the 5-year average of 27%
• T-storm Weather: Widespread coverage of above-normal rain is likely for at least two more weeks across a wide area; generalized totals of 2.00”-4.00” in central / southern Plains, Corn Belt, & Delta, & 1.00”-2.00” in the northern Plains

·       Consultant: Brazil corn crop est. is unch at 96.5 MMT with a neutral bias.  The weather in Brazil has turned drier over the last few weeks, which is normal for this time of year.  Dryness is not expected to impact yields in central areas

• ATI Research: Range for near-term U.S. corn exports is 35-45 mbu per week with a bias toward the higher end

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• USDA estimates U.S. soybean planting progress as of April 28 at 3% vs. 5% last year and the 5-year average of 6%
• T-storm Weather: Widespread coverage of above-normal rain is likely for at least two more weeks across a wide area; generalized totals of 2.00”-4.00” in central / southern Plains, Corn Belt, & Delta, & 1.00”-2.00” in the northern Plains
• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports is 20-30 mbu/week

·       ATI Research: U.S. Good/Excellent up 2% to 64%; winter wheat model pegs ‘19 crop @ 1.324 bbu; +4 mbu v. last week

• USDA est. spring wheat planting progress as of April 28 at 13% vs. 9% last year but well below the 5-year avg. of 33%

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLM19, +$0.64 @ $64.14; EBM, +0.65 @ $72.69; EBM-QCLM, +.06; RBM, +.0203; NGM, +.011; HOM, +.0176

·       Chicago ethanol was steady on Monday at $1.3400; basis values were mixed: New York, unch @ $.1150; Gulf, -$.0050 @ $.1050; Dallas, -$.0050 @ $.0750; Tampa, +$.0050 @ $.17; LA, -$.0050 @ $.3350  

·       Ethanol RINs were firmer:  2018’s, +1/2 @ 10-11; 2019’s, +1 @ 16 ½ -17 ½                                   &nb​sp;                       

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread narrowed further, $.0118 to +$.74680/gal    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY          &n​bsp;                     ​       

• Choice boxed beef was 15-cents higher on Monday at $233.14, but is still down $1.34 compared to last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was dn $1.73 v. last week at $126.69/cwt, but is up $2.96 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 78-cents on Mon. to $83.27, but is still down $3.06 v. a week ago

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $65.17/cwt vs. last week’s $71.74, last month’s $63.01 & last year’s $41.72

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather