HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mostly lower: CK, -$.0150; SK, +$.0325; WK, -$.0150; KWK, -$.0050 
• What caught my eye: Some analytical work suggests the corn market ”typically” has a $.40-$.45 per bushel “weather”premium built into prices at this time of year.  $3.35 CZ by December 1 if yields are near trend and acres are as forecast? 
• Global markets mostly lower, largest contraction in S Ko GDP since 2008.  Asia: Mostly lower--Nikkei, +0.48%; Shanghai, -2.43%; Hang Seng, -0.86%. EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.01%; FTSE, -0.27%; CAC, -0.16%.  WALL STREET—Futures are mixed--DOW, -13; S&P, +0.50; NAS, +9.50.  EXTERNALS: June crude: +$0.28 @ $66.17; Gold:  unch @ $1,279; $ Index, -.055 @ 96.740
• T-storm Weather: A strong system brings rain today to the eastern Corn Belt, with the heaviest amounts of 0.75”-1.50” occurring over Ohio and the southern half of Indiana.  Widespread rain of 0.50”-1.50” also occurs throughout the Delta.  Two potent waves then produce significant rainfall within the northern half of the central U.S. Saturday-Sunday, including some snow, though a snowstorm is not expected; 0.50”-1.00” of rain most common across SD, southern MN, northern IA, southern WI & southern MI
• CK, dn $.0150 @ $3.4525; CN, dn $.0150 @ $3.5450.  Funds continue to sell with 15 at midweek   
• SK, up $.0325 @ $8.5850; SN, up $.0325 @ $8.72.  Funds: Sold 7 SB, 1 SBM, 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.13, +4; LY, $1.39
• WK, dn $.0150 @ $4.3075; WN, dn $.0175 @ $4.3675.  Funds sold 8 K, larger Canadian acreage number   

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales report to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 24-39 for 18/19 corn

• T-storm Weather: Above-normal rainfall of 1.50”-3.50” is likely April 29-May 8 across the U.S. Corn Belt and Delta as a somewhat classic setup for substantial totals begins; the result is likely to be an increase in wet or flooded conditions

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,048,000 barrels/day for week end April 20—up 32 thou v. last week & 6.4% above last year

• Consultant: Argentina corn production estimate is unchanged at 48.0 MMT with a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward.  Corn yields continue to surpass earlier expectations

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ​;Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-26 mbu for 18/19 soybeans; soymeal, 125-325 K MT; soyoil, 5-30 

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean production est. steady at 56.0 MMT with a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward

• T-storm Weather: Above-normal rainfall of 1.50”-3.50” is likely April 29-May 8 across the U.S. Corn Belt and Delta as a somewhat classic setup for substantial totals begins; the result is likely to be an increase in wet or flooded conditions

·       Export Sales report to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 7-17 mbu for 18/19 all wheat and 4-11 for 19/20

• T-storm Weather: Near to above-normal rain is forecast April 29-May 8 for HRW wheat across Kansas & Oklahoma

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLM19, +$0.28 @ $66.17; EBM, +0.90 @ $75.46; EBM-QCLM, +.60; RBM, +.0185; NGM, +.008; HOM, +.0142

·       Chicago ethanol was $.01625 weaker at $1.31625; basis, mixed: New York, -$.01875 @ $.10375; Gulf, +$.00375 @ $.12625; Dallas, -$.00125 @ $.08375; Tampa, -$.00125 @ $.16875; LA, +$.00125 @ $.28875   

·       Ethanol RINs were steady/firm:  2018’s, unch @ 9 ½ -10 ½; 2019’s, +.1250 @ 16- 16 ¼                             ​;                        ​    

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread widened $.0219 yesterday to+$.82250/gal   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            &nb​sp;          

• Choice boxed beef declined $1.15 on Wednesday to $232.96, but is still 20-cents higher versus a week ago
• Light-to-moderate cash cattle trade occurred on Wed. in Kansas & Texas at $126-$127, unch to $1 higher v. last week

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.23 on Wed. to $85.84, but is still 53-cents higher versus last week

·       CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.72 on Wed. to $82.79.  May futures gained $1.35 and are $6.385 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather