HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mostly Lower: CK, -$.0025; SK, +$.0025; WK, -$.0475; KWK, -$.0375.  USDA Supply/Demand report at 11:00 am CDT
• What caught my eye: to state the obvious but in no way are we short moisture:  topsoil moisture is 32% surplus/61% adequate and versus 20%/67% LY; subsoil is 28% surplus/64% adequate against 30% and 62% a year ago
• U.S. futures are slightly weaker as earnings seasons begins.  Asia: Mostly firm--Nikkei, +0.19%; Shanghai, -0.16%; Hang Seng, +0.27%.  EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +0.09%; FTSE, +0.17%; CAC, +0.21%.  WALL STREET—Futures, lower--DOW, -12; S&P, -1.75; NAS, -8.25.  EXTERNALS: June crude: +$.07 @ $64.40;Gold:  +$4.80 @ $1,307; $ Index, -.125 @ 95.485
• T-storm Weather: A large and intense system unleashes a blizzard in parts of IA, NE, MN, SD, and WI Wed.-Thu., and 1.25” to 2.50” of water along and north of Interstate 80; 10” to 20”+ of wind-driven snow is plausible in western NE, SD, southern MN, and northern IA.  Except for the Delta and eastern Corn Belt, most to the south will be dry but windy as it passes.  The next system affects the Delta and southeast third to half of the Corn Belt Sat.-Sun. 
• CK, dn $.0025 @ $3.5975; CN, dn $.0025 @ $3.6825.  The funds began the week selling 4 K                      
• SK, up $.0025 @ $8.99; SN, unch @ $9.1175.  Funds: Bought 1 SB, 2 SBM & sold 4 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.99, -2; LY, $1.57
• WK, dn $.0475 @ $4.6050; WN, dn $.0425 @ $4.6450.  Fund selling on Monday was estimated at 3 K              

CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA Supply/Demand report 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade est. for U.S. corn 18/19 carryout, 2.013 bbu vs. 1.835 in March

·       USDA report: Avg. trade est. 18/19 Brazil corn crop, 94.7 MMT (94.5 in Mar); Argentina corn, 46.8 MMT (46.0 in Mar)

• ATI Research: U.S. corn 18/19 ending stocks estimated at 2.205 bbu compared to latest USDA estimate of 1.835 bbu

·       U.S. corn planting progress as of April 7 was 2%, which is steady with both last year and the five-year average

·       Consultant: Argentina corn crop estimate is unchanged at 47.0 MMT with a neutral to higher bias

• T-storm Weather: Except IN-OH, mainly dry weather affects the southern half of the Corn Belt until Sat.-Sun.

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA Supply/Demand report 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade est. U.S. soybean 18/19 carryout, 0.913 bbu v. 0.900 in March

·       USDA Supply/Demand: Avg trade est. 18/19 Brazil soybean crop, 116.1 MMT (116.5 Mar); Argentina soy, 55.5 (55.0)

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean production estimate is unchanged at 115.0 with a neutral to slightly higher bias

• ATI Research: U.S. soybean 18/19 ending stocks est. at 0.904 bbu compared to latest USDA estimate of 0.900 bbu

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. all wheat 18/19 carryout is 1.076 bbu vs. 1.055 in March

·       ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat Good/Excellent, +4% to 60%; model pegs ‘19 crop @ 1.315 bbu, +18 mbu v. last week

ENERGY

·       Higher:  CLM19, +$.07 @ $64.40; EBM, +0.02 @ $71.12; EBM-QCLM, -0.06;RBM, +.0041; NGM, +.001; HOM, +.000

·       Chicago ethanol rose $.0125 Monday to $1.30625; basis, mixed: New York, unch @ $.14625; Gulf, +$.0275 @ $.14875; Dallas, -$.0125 @ $.11875; Tampa, -$.01250 @ $.21875; LA, -$.0025 @ $.39875   

·       Ethanol RINs, weaker: 2018’s, -0.50 @ 12 -12 ½; 2019’s, -0.6250 @ 15 ¾ -16                                        &nbs​p;          

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread was $.0063 wider at +$.6730/gallonMonday    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    &​nbsp;                  

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• Choice boxed beef was $1.74 higher on Monday at $228.67, and is up $1.83 versus last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was dn $1.04 v. last week at $125.30/cwt, but is up $8.57 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.16 on Monday to $81.72, and is 98-cents higher v. a week ago

• Current nearby board hog crush value is $71.16/cwt vs. last week’s $62.16, last month’s $49.69 & last year’s $43.64

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

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