HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mostly lower: CK, -$.0075; SK, -$.0050; WK, +$.0050; KWK, -$.0075 
• What caught my eye: Another week of very disappointing soybean exports at just 14 mbu; nearly 39 per week are needed and we have barely been doing 25+ since the first of March  
• Market awaits more earnings; global oil supplies “worrisome”.  Asia: Mostly lower--Nikkei, +0.19%; Shanghai, -0.51%; Hang Seng, unch.  EUROPE: Mostly lower—DAX, -0.23%; FTSE, +0.24% CAC, -0.23%.  WALL STREET—Futures are weaker--DOW, -17; S&P, -2.50; NAS, -5.50.  EXTERNALS: June crude: +$0.41 @ $65.96; Gold:  -$2.40 @ $1,275; $ Index, NA
• T-storm Weather: A few showers affect the southern half of Corn Belt today-Wed., but only 0.05”-0.25” is expected.  Separately, a large system spins into southern Plains today-Wed. & produces heavy rain of 1.00”-2.00” in much of OK & TX, then weakens as it exits via the Delta Thu.-Fri. where 0.67”-1.33” falls.  Another system then affects parts of the northern half of the Corn Belt & Plains Sat.-Sun., producing 0.25”-0.75” totals, though it is unclear whether it will focus on MN, ND, SD, or nearby areas of IA & NE
• CK, dn $.0075 @ $3.54; CN, dn $.0075 @ $3.6275.  Funds sold 10 K on Monday as weather continues to be debated    
• SK, dn $.0050 @ $8.7650; SN, dn $.0050 @ $8.9025.  Funds: Sold 4 SB, 2 SBM, 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.04, +1; LY, $1.39
• WK, up $.0050 @ $4.3625; WN, up $.01 @ $4.4275.  Funds were sellers of 5 K on Monday   

CORN/SORGHUM

• USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of April 21 at 6% vs. 5% last year and the 5-year average of 12%
• T-storm Weather: In the U.S., a stormier period likely begins Apr. 29-30; at least near-normal rainfall is probable in most areas over Apr. 29-May 6 (and especially the Corn Belt and eastern Plains where 1.00” to 2.00” is expected)

·       Consultant: Brazil corn crop est. is steady at 96.5 MMT with a neutral bias.  Drier weather over the last few weeks in southern Brazil could keep the safrinha (double crop) corn crop in the state of Parana from reaching its full potential

• ATI Research: Range for near-term U.S. corn exports is 30-40 mbu per week with a bias toward the higher end

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• USDA estimates U.S. soybean planting progress as of April 21 at 1% vs. 2% last year and the 5-year average of 2%
• T-storm Weather: In the U.S., a stormier period likely begins Apr. 29-30; at least near-normal rainfall is probable in most areas over Apr. 29-May 6 (and especially the Corn Belt and eastern Plains where 1.00” to 2.00” is expected)
• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports is 15-30 mbu/week

·       ATI Research: U.S. Good/Excellent up 2% to 62%; winter wheat model pegs ‘19 crop @ 1.320 bbu; +2 mbu v. last week

• USDA estimates U.S. spring wheat planting progress as of April 21 at 5% vs. 3% last year and the 5-year avg. of 22%

ENERGY

·       High​er: CLM19, +$0.41 @ $65.96; EBM, +0.30 @ $74.34; EBM-QCLM, -.12;RBM, +.0044; NGM, +.0062; HOM, +.0064

·       Chicago ethanol was $.00125 firmer at $1.33625; basis, mostly weaker: New York, -$.01375 @ $.12125; Gulf, +$.01875 @ $.11875; Dallas, -$.00625 @ $.08875; Tampa, -$.00125 @ $.18375; LA, -$.01125 @ $.35875   

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker:  2018’s, -0.75 @ 9 ½ -10; 2019’s, -.50 @ 16 -16 ¼                                            &nb​sp;            

·      &​nbsp;The May RBOB/May ethanol spread traded $.0566 wider on Monday to+$.7958/gal; @ $.7767 this am    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               &n​bsp;                       

• Choice boxed beef increased 83-cents on Monday to $234.48, and is $3.50 higher versus a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $2.23 v. last week at $128.42/cwt, and is up $6.71 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 19-cents on Mon. to $86.33, and is 40-cents higher vs. last week

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $71.74/cwt vs. last week’s $70.64, last month’s $67.06 & last year’s $46.23

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather