HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—(5:30 am) Mostly lower: CH, -$.0050; SH, +$.0075; WH, -$.0350; KWH, -$.0125
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MACRO: Border agreement hopefully moving ahead; U.S./China trade resolution in the not-too-distant future? Asia: Lower--Nikkei, -0.02%;Shanghai, -0.05%; Hang Seng, -0.23%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.36%; FTSE, +0.28%; CAC, +0.70%. WALL STREET: Futures are higher: DOW,+98; S&P, +8.50; NAS, +27.25. EXTERNALS: March crude: +$0.63 @ $54.53; Gold: -$6.40 @ $1,309; Mar $ Index, +0.022 @ 96.96
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T-storm Weather: In Brazil, organized rains affect varying areas over the next five days – especially central and north. Scattered thunderstorms then linger next week, but coverage and amounts will be more diffuse. In Argentina, most areas will be dry over the next week. Temps remain very cool today, then turn sharply warmer as a moderate-duration heat wave begins and lasts five to seven days, including highs in the mid-90s over much of the period. A cooler period with rain follows from Feb. 21-22 forward
· CH, dn $.0050 @ $3.7825; CK, dn $.0050 @ $3.8625. Fund buying was estimated at 1 K on Wednesday
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SH, up $.0075 @ $9.1725; SK, up $.0050 @ $9.3125. Funds: 0 SB, 1 K SBM & sold 3 SBO. Board Crush: $.96, 0; LY, $1.46
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WH, dn $.0350 @ $5.1875; WK, dn $.0425 @ $5.2175. The funds were also buyers of 1 K in wheat contracts
CORN/SORGHUM
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST. Trade expects 20-35 mbu for combined corn sales for all marketing years
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Consultant: In Argentina, range for 18/19 corn production is 39.0-44.0 MMT v. 32.0 MMT last year (USDA). Outside of saturated areas & the late planted corn in northern regions, the corn crop is doing very well with good yield prospects
· T-storm Weather: In Argentina, upcoming heat begins to break Feb. 21-22 as a cool front triggers a round of rain. The end result is for 1.00”-2.00” of rain to affect most corn over the next 2 weeks, but not starting in earnest for 7-10 days
· Ethanol grind: Total of 1,029,000 barrels/day for the week ending Feb. 8—up 6.4% vs. prior week & up 1.3% vs. 2018
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales released at 7:30 am CST. Trade expects 22-51 mbu for combined soybean sales for all marketing years
· Consultant: In Brazil, range for 18/19 soybean production is 105.0-116.0 MMT v. 120.8 MMT last year (USDA). Recent rainfall amounts have been increasing, but only about half of the crop could be helped by the improved conditions
· T-storm Weather: In Brazil, near & above-normal rain affect wide soybean area next 2 weeks. Organized rain through Sunday is followed by lesser-coverage scattered thunderstorms; 2.25”-4.50” south, 3.50”-6.50” central and north
· Export Sales released at 7:30 am CST. Trade expects 7-20 mbu for combined wheat sales for all marketing years
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T-storm Weather: Very dry and mild across EU wheat over the next 7 to 10 days, but drought is no longer an issue
ENERGY
· Higher: CLH19, +$0.63 @ $54.53; EBJ, +$1.04 @ $64.65; EBJ-QCLJ, +$0.44; RBH, +.0274; NGH, +.030; HOH, +0.0275
· Chicago ethanol was $.01125 higher @ $1.37250; basis values firmed: New York, +$.01375 @ $.08; Gulf, +$.00625 @ $.0625; Dallas, +$.00375 @ $.0375; Tampa, +.00625 @ $.13; LA, +$.00875 @ $.1375
· Ethanol RINs, firmer: 2017’s, +1.25 @ 17 ¾ -18 ¼; 2018’s,+0.50 @ 18 ¼ -18 ¾ @ 18 ½; 2019’s, +0.375 @ 21 – 21 ½
· The March RBOB/March ethanol spread added $.0219 to $.1201; trading at +$.155002/gal this morning
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef was 72-cents lower on Wednesday at $216.44, and is $1.13 lower compared to a week ago
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In cash cattle markets, live bids on Wed. were at $122 in Texas while dressed bids in the North were at $200 per cwt.
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.11 on Wed. to $62.71, and is $1.72 lower versus last week
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CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.36 on Wed. to $55.55. February futures eased $0.025, and are $0.40 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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