HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mostly Higher: CN, $.02; SN, -$.0075; WN, +$.0625; KWN, +$.0425 
• What caught my eye: Brazil FOB SB values have moved out to as much as a $26 per MT/$.70/bu premium to the Gulf and will likely result in considerable non-PRC business work to the U.S., much like last summer as long as trade riff remains
• Déjà vu . . . trade worries continue to over-shadow the market.  Asia: Lower--Nikkei, -0.62%; Shanghai, -1.36%; Hang Seng, -1.58%.  EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -1.96%; FTSE, -1.48%; CAC, -1.87%.  WALL STREET—Futures sharply lower--DOW, -248; S&P, -29; NAS, -102.75.  EXTERNALS: July crude: -$1.08 @ $60.35;Gold:  +$2.50 @ $1,277; $ Index: NA
• T-storm Weather: GFS output has numerous t-storm clusters developing each day over the next week, especially central and north.  he exact output shows around 1.00" to 4.00" in most of the central U.S. through then with particularly high totals from northwest TX through much of KS, IA, and into WI.  June-May Corn Belt rainfall will far surpass the totals of the next wettest period which were the Mississippi River Floods of 2010-2011 and the Great Mississippi Flood of 1926-27   
• CN, up $.02 @ $3.9650; CU, up $.0175 @ $4.055.  The funds were buyers again at mid-week, estimated at 8 K          
• SN, dn $.0075 @ $8.2775; SQ, dn $.0050 @ $8.35.  Funds: Bot-- 5 SB, 4 SBM, 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.28, +2; LY, $1.47
• WN, up $.0625 @ $4.79; WU, up $.0550 @ $4.8625.  The funds sold 4K Wednesday 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Expor​t Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 8-24 mbu for 18/19 corn and 2-18 mbu for 19/20

• With 78% of the corn planted last year, CZ18 closed at $4.23 ¼ on May 22, 10 ½ cents higher than this year and despite 2019’s record low May 19^th planting pace
• Consultant sees possibility of corn planted area falling to 89.0 million, or lower (USDA: 92.0) and with late planting likely to act as a drag on yield, the latter potential is on the order of 167.0 (USDA: 176.0)
• Ethanol grind: Total of 1,071,000 barrels/day for week end May 17; up 20 thou v. prior week and 4.2% above last year  
• Widespread t-storms formed as expected overnight through central Missouri and much of Illinois, and are now moving across Indiana.

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ​Export Sales report.  Trade expects 0-15 mbu for 18/19 soybeans and 4-15 for 19/20; soymeal, 50-300 K MT for 18/19 and 25-100 for 19/20; soyoil, 4-25 K MT for 18/19 (range for 19/20 is not available) 

• Consultant on Prevent Plant—5 yr corn average is 1.5 and for soybeans, 780 thousand with this year having the potential for 5-6 million between the two crops
• SX19 closed at $8.55 14 on Wednesday, May 22 or $1.83 ¾ below 2018’s May 22^ndSX18 closing price

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects (4)-7 mbu for 18/19 all wheat and 4-18 mbu for 19/20

• T-storm Weather: At least 1/2” of rain will fall on the NW 1/3^rd to ½ of Ohio today

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLN19, -$1.08 @ $60.35; EBN, -1.20 @ $69.79; EBN-QCLN, -.14; RBN, -.0222; NGN, +.009; HON, -.0317

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0275 lower Wedneday, easing to $1.3650; basis values were firmer: New York, +$.0075 @ $.1150; Gulf, +$.0075 @ $.07; Dallas, +$.0075 @ $.07; Tampa, +$.0125 @ $.19; LA, +$.0125 @ $.2400  

·       Ethanol RINs were lower:  2018’s, -.25 @ 9- 9 ½; 2019’s, -.25 @ 13 ½ -14                                                                   ​  

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol spread was $.0031 lower, slipping to +$.6242/gal      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                          ​             

• ​Choice boxed beef was steady Wednesday at $219.58 and is up 1 cent versus last week 
• June live cattle futures on May 22 closed at $110.650, which is $0.950 higher compared to May 15

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.33 Wednesday to $83.47 and is $1.64 lower versus a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index was up $.020 Tuesday at $84.39.  June futures lost $0.450 and are $5.260 above the index 

Sources: Bloombeg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

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