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TRENDS Mostly higher CK, Unchanged, SK, Down 2,WK, Up 4

March 14, 2019 07:07 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Mostly higher: CK, +$.0075; SK, -$.01; WK, +$.04; KWH, +$.0325. Dely: SBM-42; C-163; HRW, 12; SB-222; SRW-9
  • What caught my eye:  Chinese corn buying rumors at the same time one wire service was reporting Chinese government was purchasing up to 3 MMT of domestic supplies to support producer prices
  • Asia: Mostly lower-Nikkei, -0.02%; Shanghai, -1.20%; Hang Seng, +0.15%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.10%; FTSE, +0.49%; CAC, +0.59%.  WALL STREET: Mixed: DOW, -5; S&P, unch; NAS, +5.75.  EXTERNALS: April crude: -$0.04 @ $58.22 Gold:  -$11.20 @ $1,298; Mar $ Index+0.228 @ 96.740. 
  • T-storm Weather: In Brazil, scattered thunderstorms continue for safrinha (double crop) over the next 10 to 14 days.  Temps will vary but average near- to above-normal north and below-normal south.  As a result, weather will remain favorable for corn as reproductive phases approach and/or begin into late month.  In Argentina, all areas stay much cooler than normal by 3°F to 8°F over the next 2 weeks, which is near-ideal for filling late-corn and soybeans.  High coverage of organized rainfall is not expected 

·        CK, up $.0075 @ $3.6725; CN, up $.0050 @ $3.7675.  Fund buying 2 K on Chinese corn rumors?           

  • SK, dn $.01 @ $9.00; SN, dn $.01 @ $9.1375.  Funds: Bought 3 SB, 3 SBM, & sold 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $.99, 0; LY, $1.33
  • WK, up $.0450 @ $4.5175; WN, up $.0375 @ $4.59.  The funds sold 3 K yesterday   

CORN/SORGHUM

·        Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT for the week ending March 7; trade expects 31-47 mbu for 2018/19 corn sales

·        T-storm Weather: In Argentina, 48% of late-crop corn production was drier than normal over the 30 -day period ending Mon., indicating some more rain would be ideal; but temps were cool in recent weeks, likely aiding filling

  • Consultant: In Argentina, some corn production areas could use more rain; e.g. southwestern region.  While yields will probably be disappointing in this area, very good yields from central Argentina should more than compensate

·        Ethanol grind: Total of 1,005,000 barrels/day for week end March 8—down 1.9% v. prior week and down 2.0% v. 2018

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT for the week ending March 7; trade expects 44-70 mbu for 2018/19 soybean sales

·        Consultant: In Brazil, the last soybean areas to be harvested are Rio Grande do Sul (far south) & northeast.  The trend of increased rain of late will be closely monitored in these regions as excessive moisture could impact seed quality

·        T-storm Weather: Soybean areas of northeast Brazil are forecast to see slightly above-normal rain through March 20

·        Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT for the week ending March 7; trade expects 15-22 mbu for 2018/19 wheat sales

·        T-storm Weather: Temps turn sharply colder today for U.S. HRW wheat in the Plains & stay below-normal for a week

ENERGY

·        Mixed: CLJ19-$0.04 @ $58.22; EBK, +$0.07 @ $67.62; EBK-QCLK, +$0.14; RBJ, +.0105; NGJ, +.008HOJ, -0.0054

·        Chicago ethanol rose was $.0265 higher at $1.3275; basis, mostly weaker : New York, +$.00125 @ $.11500; Gulf, -$.01375 @ $.10250; Dallas, -$.02125 @ $.11; Tampa, -$.02375 @ $.21250; LA, -$.00625 @ $.2175   

·        Ethanol RINs, mixed: 2017’s, +1.00 @ 9-11; 2018’s, -.125 @ 16 -16 ½; 2019’s, -.125 @ 18-18 ¾                            &nbs​p;                 

·&nb​sp;       The April RBOB/April ethanol spread edged wider yesterday, $.0223 to+$.5268/gallon     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​;                     &nb​sp;                   

  • Choice boxed beef firmed 2-cents on Wednesday to $228.24, and is up $3.31 versus last week 
  • Light cash cattle trading occurred on Wednesday in Nebraska and Iowa at $127, which is $1 lower than last week

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 25-cents on Wed. to $66.15, & is $4.66 higher vs. a week ago 

  • CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.74 on Wed. to $53.12.  April futures fell $0.175 but are still $10.355 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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