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TRENDS Mostly higher CH, Up 2, SH, Up 4, WH, Down 3

February 12, 2019 09:17 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—(5:38 am) Mostly higher: CH, +$.0250; SH, +$.0425; WH, -$.00275; KWH, -$.0075
  • MACRO: Markets are higher on tentative deal to avoid government shutdown; ball is in White House court. Asia: Mostly higher--Nikkei, +2.61%; Shanghai, +0.68%Hang Seng, +0.10%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +1.20%; FTSE, +0.37%; CAC, +1.11%.  WALL STREET: Futures are much higher: DOW, +192;S&P, +18.00; NAS, +57.50.  EXTERNALS: March crude: +$0.90 @ $53.30; Gold:  +$4.80 @ $1,317; Mar $ Index, -0.007 @ 96.850.CONAB/Brazil est:  SB down 3.5 MMT to 115.3; Corn up 462 K to91.65
  • T-storm Weather: Widespread rain eases dryness across Brazil over the next 10 to 14 days as numerous cool fronts sweep northward and trigger frequent thunderstorms for the first time since November.  In Argentina, dry weather occurs for 10 days starting today, becoming more notable with time given the coverage of 14-day dryness recently shot sharply higher and that far-southern areas were also drier than normal over the last 30 days.  That said, temps will be unseasonably cool through Thursday

·       CH, up $.0250 @ $3.7525 CK, up $.025 @ $3.8325.  Fund selling continues wit 3 K on Monday  

  • SH, up $.045 @ $9.0925; SK, up $.0450 @ $9.2375.  Funds: Sold—6 K SB, 2 K SBM & 7 K SBO.  Board Crush:, $.98,0; LY, $1.36
  • WH, dn $.0075 @ $5.1750; WK, dn $.01 @ $5.1950.  The funds sold the 2 K they had purchased Friday                        

 

   ​ CORN/SORGHUM

·       Consultant: Argentina corn production estimate is unchanged at 42.0 MMT.  The forecast looks drier in Argentina, especially in southern production areas.  Drier weather going forward could impact later planted corn in this region

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, most corn areas will be dry over the next 10 days.  However, temps will initially be sharply cooler than normal by 10°F to 20°F through Thursday with highs only in the 70s and lows in the 40s-50s

·       ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 corn ending stocks estimate is 1.849 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 1.735 bbu

·       The base pricing period for 2019 crop insurance has begun; avg. for December 2019 corn futures to date is $4.0121

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: B​razil soybean crop estimate is unchanged at 113.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias going forward

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil,  scattered thunderstorms develop in soybean areas each of next 10-14 days.  Widespread coverage of near- & above-normal rain occurs (2.00”-4.00” south & 3.50”-6.50” central & north), slowing harvest

·       ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 soybean ending stocks estimate is 0.969 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 0.910 bbu

·       Base pricing period for 2019 crop insurance has begun; avg. for November 2019 soybean futures to date is $9.5721

·       ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 HRS wheat ending stocks estimate is 0.265 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 0.262 bbu

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., heavy rain (4.00”-6.00”) in the Delta & SE Corn Belt impacts SRW wheat into late-Feb.

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLH19, +$0.90 @ $52.30; EBJ, +$1.15 @ $62.66; EBJ-QCLJ, +$0.27; RBH, +.0282; NGH, +.038HOH, +0.0263

·       Chicago ethanol was $.04 higher Monday @ $1.34125; basis values weaker: New York, -$.0350 @ $.07375; Gulf, -$.02250 @ $.07625; Dallas, -$.035 @ $.05375; Tampa, -$.04 @ $.14875; LA, -$.04 @ $.14875   

·       Ethanol RINs, mostly steady: 2017’s, 0 @ 16 ½ -17; 2018’s, 0 @ 17 ½ -18; 2019’s, +0.25 @ 20 ½ - 21                                    

​ ·       The March RBOB/March ethanol spread shed $.0372 Monday to+$.1012/gal; trading $.1263 this morning   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                &nbs​p;      

  • Choice boxed beef increased $1.53 on Monday to $216.88, but is still down 77-cents compared to a week ago
  • 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $1.11 v. last week at $124.98/cwt, but is $1.17 lower v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 47-cents on Mon. to $64.17, but is still $2.40 lower vs. last week

  • CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.39 on Mon. to $56.14.  February futures gained $0.125, but are $0.965 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

  



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