HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mostly firm:  CZ, +$.01; SX, +$.0225; WZ, -$.0125; KWZ, +$.0050 

·       What caught my eye:  The thinking here is South American corn exports are a ways from backing off and Ukraine’s exports are likely to have accelerated from below 200 K in September to a record 2 MMT for the month of October; and there’s more to come

·       Favorable earnings lift most global equity markets slightly.  ASIA: Mostly firm--Nikkei,+0.55%; Shanghai, -0.02%; Hang Seng, +0.87%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.55%; FTSE, +.86%; CAC, +0.49%.  WALL STREET—Futures are firm-- DOW, +25; S&P, +3.25; NAS, +32.50.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$0.35 @ $55.62; Gold: -$4.10 @ $1,492; $ Index: +.009 @ 97.500

• T-storm Weather®: most U.S. corn and soybeans stay dry through Friday.  Thereafter, the exact setup is difficult to determine, but 0.50” to 1.00” of rain is probable across the Delta and southeast half to two-thirds of the Corn Belt Fri.-Sat. as an upper-level system passes.  Next, a strong system pulls unseasonably cold air southward Mon.-Wed., causing a mix of light to moderate rain and snow to affect a wide swath area with generalized totals of 0.25” to 0.75” in the central Plains and Corn Belt
• CZ, up $.01 @ $3.8875; CH, up $.01 @ $4.0075.  The funds were again even in the mid-week session               
• SX, up $.0225 @ $9.36; SF, up $.0175 @ $9.50.  Funds: Bot 1 K SB; 2 K SBM & sold 3 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.82, +1; LY, $1.38
• WZ, dn $.0125 @ $5.1950; WH, dn $.0125 @ $5.2475.  Fund buying on Wednesday amounted to 2 K            

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 16-28 mbu for 19/20 corn (32.4 needed)

• T-storm Weather®: a much drier period for U.S. corn begins Oct. 30-31.  Freezes occur within Oct. 30 - Nov. 1 for much of the 74% of production that did not experience a killing event Oct. 14 as temps fall below 28°F at least once

·       ATI Research: the low cost exporters of corn to Japan are Argentina and Ukraine at a C&F price of $201.00 per MT, respectively.  Brazil corn is $7.75 higher at $208.75, while U.S. PNW corn at $219.25 is highest of the 4 major suppliers

• Ethanol grind: 0.996 mbpd for the week ending Oct. 18—up 25 thou v. prior week but dn 29 Kbpd (2.7%) v. last year   
• Through Oct. 24, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for December 2019 corn futures has averaged $3.9060

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 29-59 for 19/20 soybeans (24.2 needed); 50-300 for 19/20 soymeal (176.2 needed); and 0-22 for 19/20 soyoil (11.7 needed)

• T-storm Weather®: a much drier period for U.S. soybeans begins Oct. 30-31.  Freezes occur within Oct. 30 - Nov. 1 for much of the 77% of production that did not experience a killing event Oct. 14 as temps fall below 28°F at least once

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-22 mbu for 19/20 all wheat (13.4 needed)

• T-storm Weather®: mainly dry conditions persist for Australia wheat the next 7-10 days as the growing season closes

ENERGY

·       Mi​xed: CLZ19, -$0.55 @ $55.62; EBZ, -$0.21 @ $60.96; EBZ-QCLZ, +.15; RBZ, -.0122; NGZ, +.021; ​HOZ, -.0035

·       Chicago ethanol picked up $.01450 yesterday to $1.4850/gal; basis values were mostly weaker:  NYC, -$.0095 @ +$.1050; Gulf, +$.0105 @ +$.0750; Dallas, -$.0095 @ +.1100; Tampa, -$.0145 @ +$.22; LA, -$.0145 @ +$.31

·       Ethanol RINs were steady/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 6 -8; 2019’s, +.375 @ 15 ¾ -16 1/8; 2020’s, +.500 @ 23 ½-24 ½                                   &nbs​p;                        ​;                                        

·   &n​bsp;   The November RBOB/November ethanol spread widened $.0230 yesterday to $.2209/gallon  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                &nb​sp;                      

·       Choice boxed beef was $2.35 higher on Wednesday at $223.28 and is up $5.00 compared to a week ago   

• December live cattle futures on Wed. closed at $115.25—the highest settlement price for the contract since May 1

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.07 lower on Wed. at $74.41 & is down $2.30 versus last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.25 on Wed. to $65.72.  December futures gained $0.325 & are $0.105 above the index               

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®