HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mostly firm: CU, +$.02; SQ, +$.0375; WU, -$.01; KWU, +$.0050     
• What caught my eye:  Demand side has taken a back seat but Monday’s corn exports were dismal.  Sales the past month rival the lows of 11/12 and 12/13.   The latter year saw the export forecast drop from 1.9 bbu to 735 by year’s end.  Eerie parallel?
• Market ascent pauses after new highs are reached.  Asia: Mostly firm--Nikkei, +0.11%; Shanghai, -0.03%; Hang Seng, +1.17%.  EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, -0.20%; FTSE, +0.49%; CAC, -0.07%.  WALL STREET—Futures are lower--DOW, -33; S&P, -3.25; NAS, -17.75.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude:-$0.11 @ $58.98; Gold:  +$6.50 @ $1,396; $ Index: -.13 @ 96.72
• T-storm ® Weather: U.S. temps remain sharply warmer than normal across a wide area through today.  Changes unfold from northwest to southeast Wed.-Sun. as temps initially fall to below-normal levels in central and northern Plains, then more-so across the rest of central U.S. Fri.-Sun.  Scattered thunderstorms gradually expand southeastward from MN to affect all of the Corn Belt through Wed.-Thu., while continuing across the northern third to half of the Plains.  Rain then shifts further to the south Fri.-Sun.
• CU, up $.02 @ $4.1750; CZ, up $.0175 @ $4.2425.  More fund selling, estimated at 30 K on Monday, weather looking favorable                      
• SQ, up $.0375 @ $8.9350; SU, up $.0375 @ $9.00.  Funds: Sold 15 K SB, 10 K SBM; 4 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.93, -7; LY, $1.86
• WU, dn $.01 @ $5.1075; WZ, dn $.0150 @ $5.2275.  The funds were again sellers of 15 K           

CORN/SORGHUM

• USDA Crop Progress report pegs U.S. corn emergence at 94% compared to 89% last week and 100% for both 2018 & the 5-year avg.  Good/Excellent crop ratings are 56%, which is unchanged vs. last week but well below 76% in 2018

·       T-storm ® Weather: Temps forecast to be cooler than normal across northeast third to half of central U.S. July 8-15 & near-normal elsewhere; rain forecast within a wide area, likely focused on southwest half to two-third of central area

·       Corn export inspections were just 10.7 mbu, sharply below the 61.8 mbu needed to reach annual USDA forecast

• USDA says that in July they will collect updated information on 2019 acres in 14 states; updates to be released Aug. 12

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• USDA Crop Progress report pegs U.S. soybean planting at 92% vs. 85% last week, 100% last year & 5-year avg. of 99%.  Good/Excellent crop ratings are 54%, which is unchanged versus last week but well below 71% in 2018

·       T-storm ® Weather: Temps forecast to be cooler than normal across northeast third to half of central U.S. July 8-15 & near-normal elsewhere; rain forecast within a wide area, likely focused on southwest half to two-third of central area

·       ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat Good/Excellent is up 2 points at 63%; ATI crop model est. 2019 crop @ 1.282 bbu

• T-storm ® Weather: Rains return Friday-Sunday (July 5-7) to U.S. HRW wheat in the central and southern Plains

ENERGY

·       Down: CLQ19, -$0.11 @ $58.98; EBU, -$0.26 @ $64.80; EBU-QCLQ, -.16; RBQ, -.0031; NGQ, +.004; HOQ, -.0055

·       Chicago ethanol lost $.0325 to $1.4875; basis values were mixed: New York, -$.00025 @ $.12; Gulf, +$.00725 @ $.1125; Dallas, +$.00725 @ $.0975; Tampa, 0$.00025 @ $.21; LA, -$.00025 @ $.2450  

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker:  2018’s, -0.75 @ 22 -23 ½; 2019’s, -1.00 @ 25 ¼ -26 ¼                                                           &nb​sp;                   <​/wbr>

·       The August RBOB/July ethanol spread began the week a penny wider at$.4575/gal 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY           ​                &nbs​p;           

<​ul>

Choice boxed beef gained 6-cents on Monday to $219.72 but is still down 2-cents compared to a week ago

5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was dn $0.35 v. last week at $110.13/cwt, but is up $3.26 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 94-cents on Monday to $71.32 and is $4.59 lower versus last week 

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $42.30/cwt vs. last week’s $42.94, last month’s $55.30 & last year’s $41.65              

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather