TRENDS Mixed CZ, Up 1, SX, Up 3, WZ, Down 3

September 6, 2019 07:00 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

TRENDS—Mixed: CZ, +$.0125; SX, +$.0350; WZ, -$.0250; KWZ, -$.0150. Dely: SM, 340; BO, 43; RR, 28; C, 686; ETOH, 22: HRW, 28; SB, 580; SRW, 36
What caught my eye: IF USDA #’s are right, the Mid-South should be deficit nearly 140 mbu in storage capacity and have double the exportable surplus of last year, just at a time when the U.S. is facing a very weak SON Gulf export outlook

· Aug non-farm payroll data & unemployment are the morning’s focus. ASIA: Up--Nikkei, 0.54%; Shanghai, +0.46%; Hang Seng, +0.66%. EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, +0.28%; FTSE, -0.16; CAC, -0.03%. WALL STREET—Futures are positive-- DOW, +72; S&P, +7.25; NAS, +10.75. EXTERNALS: Nov crude: -$0.81 @ $55.35; Gold: -$10 @ $1,516; $ Index: +.04 @ 98.450

· T-storm Weather®: A stormy period affects the central U.S. over the next 10 days as a sharp temperature gradient helps thunderstorms to occasionally affect a wide area from this weekend forward, producing heavy totals of 1.25” to 2.50” across much of the central / northern Plains and northwest two-thirds of the Corn Belt. A cooler period follows, but a killing freeze is not expected for corn and soybeans

CZ, up $.0125 @ $3.60; CH, up $.01 @ $3.7275. The funds were buyers of 2 K, RFS optimism
SX, up $.0350 @ $8.65; SF, up $.03 @ $8.7850. Funds: Sold 7 K SB, 5 K SBM, 6 K SBO. Board Crush: $0.91, +1; LY, $1.58
WZ, dn $.0250 @ $4.6375; WH, dn $.0225 @ $4.7025. The funds were again buyers of 5 K

CORN/SORGHUM

· ; Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT. Trade expects 0-4 mbu for 18/19 corn and 20-31 mbu for 19/20

T-storm Weather®: scattered rain occurs Sat.-Sun. in the Dakotas & northwest half of the U.S. Corn Belt; 0.25”-0.75” in/near IA, MN, NE, & the Dakotas. A stormy period follows Sep. 9-15 within northwest two-thirds of the central U.S.
ATI Research: Sluggish development of the 2019 U.S. corn crop is reflected in crop progress. Corn dented on average increases 14% over Sep. 1-8 to approx. 77%; however, corn dented this year as of Sep. 1 was only at 41%

· Ethanol grind: Total of 1,013,000 barrels/day for week end Aug. 30—dn 25 thou v. prior week and 6.8% lower v. 2018

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

· Export Sales report. Trade expects (6) - 4 mbu for 18/19 soybeans and 7-22 for 19/20; soymeal, 25-75 K MT for 18/19 and 100-250 for 19/20; soyoil, 0-20 K MT for 18/19 and 0-8 for 19/20

T-storm Weather®: a cooler period occurs in 1-2 weeks, but there is little chance for a killing freeze in U.S. soybeans

· Export Sales report. Trade expects 15-29 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

T-storm Weather®: at least near-normal rainfall is forecast over Sep. 7-13 for all un-harvested U.S. HRS wheat

ENERGY

· Weak: CLX19, -$0.81 @ $55.35; EBX, -$0.46 @ $60.49; EBX-QCLX, +.32; RBX, -.0210; NGX, -.029; HOX, -.0242

· Chicago ethanol again slightly firm, up $.00125 to $1.32125; basis values were mixed: NYC, +$.01375 @ $.13875; Gulf, -$.00625 @ $.10375; Dallas, -$.00125 @ $.11375; Tampa, -$.00125 @ $.22875; LA, +$.00875 @ $.22875

· Ethanol RINs were mixed with 2018’s off .50 @ 7 -9 ½ and 2019’s up 1.50 @ 16 -18 ½    

· The October RBOB/October ethanol spread narrowed $.0189 to $.2230/gal yesterday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  

Choice boxed beef was $1.23 lower on Thursday at $229.42 and is down $2.77 versus a week ago
October live cattle futures on Thursday posted a contract low of $97.175 and settled $1.15 lower at $97.875

· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.27 on Thu. to $71.83 but is still up $1.07 versus last week

· CME Lean Hog Index eased $1.32 on Thu. at $65.25. October futures fell $0.825 but are still $1.05 above the index ;

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

...

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HIGHLIGHTS

TRENDS—Mixed: CZ, +$.0125; SX, +$.0350; WZ, -$.0250; KWZ, -$.0150. Dely: SM, 340; BO, 43; RR, 28; C, 686; ETOH, 22: HRW, 28; SB, 580; SRW, 36
What caught my eye: IF USDA #’s are right, the Mid-South should be deficit nearly 140 mbu in storage capacity and have double the exportable surplus of last year, just at a time when the U.S. is facing a very weak SON Gulf export outlook

CZ, up $.0125 @ $3.60; CH, up $.01 @ $3.7275. The funds were buyers of 2 K, RFS optimism
SX, up $.0350 @ $8.65; SF, up $.03 @ $8.7850. Funds: Sold 7 K SB, 5 K SBM, 6 K SBO. Board Crush: $0.91, +1; LY, $1.58
WZ, dn $.0250 @ $4.6375; WH, dn $.0225 @ $4.7025. The funds were again buyers of 5 K

CORN/SORGHUM

· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT. Trade expects 0-4 mbu for 18/19 corn and 20-31 mbu for 19/20

T-storm Weather®: scattered rain occurs Sat.-Sun. in the Dakotas & northwest half of the U.S. Corn Belt; 0.25”-0.75” in/near IA, MN, NE, & the Dakotas. A stormy period follows Sep. 9-15 within northwest two-thirds of the central U.S.
ATI Research: Sluggish development of the 2019 U.S. corn crop is reflected in crop progress. Corn dented on average increases 14% over Sep. 1-8 to approx. 77%; however, corn dented this year as of Sep. 1 was only at 41%

· Ethanol grind: Total of 1,013,000 barrels/day for week end Aug. 30—dn 25 thou v. prior week and 6.8% lower v. 2018

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

· Export Sales report. Trade expects (6) - 4 mbu for 18/19 soybeans and 7-22 for 19/20; soymeal, 25-75 K MT for 18/19 and 100-250 for 19/20; soyoil, 0-20 K MT for 18/19 and 0-8 for 19/20

T-storm Weather®: a cooler period occurs in 1-2 weeks, but there is little chance for a killing freeze in U.S. soybeans

· Export Sales report. Trade expects 15-29 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

T-storm Weather®: at least near-normal rainfall is forecast over Sep. 7-13 for all un-harvested U.S. HRS wheat

ENERGY

· Weak: CLX19, -$0.81 @ $55.35; EBX, -$0.46 @ $60.49; EBX-QCLX, +.32; RBX, -.0210; NGX, -.029; HOX, -.0242

· Ethanol RINs were mixed with 2018’s off .50 @ 7 -9 ½ and 2019’s up 1.50 @ 16 -18 ½      

· The October RBOB/October ethanol spread narrowed $.0189 to $.2230/gal yesterday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  

Choice boxed beef was $1.23 lower on Thursday at $229.42 and is down $2.77 versus a week ago
October live cattle futures on Thursday posted a contract low of $97.175 and settled $1.15 lower at $97.875

· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.27 on Thu. to $71.83 but is still up $1.07 versus last week

· CME Lean Hog Index eased $1.32 on Thu. at $65.25. October futures fell $0.825 but are still $1.05 above the index  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

...

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HIGHLIGHTS

TRENDS—Mixed: CZ, +$.0125; SX, +$.0350; WZ, -$.0250; KWZ, -$.0150. Dely: SM, 340; BO, 43; RR, 28; C, 686; ETOH, 22: HRW, 28; SB, 580; SRW, 36
What caught my eye: IF USDA #’s are right, the Mid-South should be deficit nearly 140 mbu in storage capacity and have double the exportable surplus of last year, just at a time when the U.S. is facing a very weak SON Gulf export outlook

CZ, up $.0125 @ $3.60; CH, up $.01 @ $3.7275. The funds were buyers of 2 K, RFS optimism
SX, up $.0350 @ $8.65; SF, up $.03 @ $8.7850. Funds: Sold 7 K SB, 5 K SBM, 6 K SBO. Board Crush: $0.91, +1; LY, $1.58
WZ, dn $.0250 @ $4.6375; WH, dn $.0225 @ $4.7025. The funds were again buyers of 5 K

CORN/SORGHUM

·  Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT. Trade expects 0-4 mbu for 18/19 corn and 20-31 mbu for 19/20

T-storm Weather®: scattered rain occurs Sat.-Sun. in the Dakotas & northwest half of the U.S. Corn Belt; 0.25”-0.75” in/near IA, MN, NE, & the Dakotas. A stormy period follows Sep. 9-15 within northwest two-thirds of the central U.S.
ATI Research: Sluggish development of the 2019 U.S. corn crop is reflected in crop progress. Corn dented on average increases 14% over Sep. 1-8 to approx. 77%; however, corn dented this year as of Sep. 1 was only at 41%

· Ethanol grind: Total of 1,013,000 barrels/day for week end Aug. 30—dn 25 thou v. prior week and 6.8% lower v. 2018

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·   Export Sales report. Trade expects (6) - 4 mbu for 18/19 soybeans and 7-22 for 19/20; soymeal, 25-75 K MT for 18/19 and 100-250 for 19/20; soyoil, 0-20 K MT for 18/19 and 0-8 for 19/20

T-storm Weather®: a cooler period occurs in 1-2 weeks, but there is little chance for a killing freeze in U.S. soybeans

· Export Sales report. Trade expects 15-29 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

T-storm Weather®: at least near-normal rainfall is forecast over Sep. 7-13 for all un-harvested U.S. HRS wheat

ENERGY

·   Weak: CLX19, -$0.81 @ $55.35; EBX, -$0.46 @ $60.49; EBX-QCLX, +.32; RBX, -.0210; NGX, -.029; HOX, -.0242

· Ethanol RINs were mixed with 2018’s off .50 @ 7 -9 ½ and 2019’s up 1.50 @ 16 -18 ½      

·   The October RBOB/October ethanol spread narrowed $.0189 to $.2230/gal yesterday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  

Choice boxed beef was $1.23 lower on Thursday at $229.42 and is down $2.77 versus a week ago
October live cattle futures on Thursday posted a contract low of $97.175 and settled $1.15 lower at $97.875

· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.27 on Thu. to $71.83 but is still up $1.07 versus last week

· CME Lean Hog Index eased $1.32 on Thu. at $65.25. October futures fell $0.825 but are still $1.05 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

...

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HIGHLIGHTS

TRENDS—Mixed: CZ, +$.0125; SX, +$.0350; WZ, -$.0250; KWZ, -$.0150. Dely: SM, 340; BO, 43; RR, 28; C, 686; ETOH, 22: HRW, 28; SB, 580; SRW, 36
What caught my eye: IF USDA #’s are right, the Mid-South should be deficit nearly 140 mbu in storage capacity and have double the exportable surplus of last year, just at a time when the U.S. is facing a very weak SON Gulf export outlook

CZ, up $.0125 @ $3.60; CH, up $.01 @ $3.7275. The funds were buyers of 2 K, RFS optimism
SX, up $.0350 @ $8.65; SF, up $.03 @ $8.7850. Funds: Sold 7 K SB, 5 K SBM, 6 K SBO. Board Crush: $0.91, +1; LY, $1.58
WZ, dn $.0250 @ $4.6375; WH, dn $.0225 @ $4.7025. The funds were again buyers of 5 K

CORN/SORGHUM

·   Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT. Trade expects 0-4 mbu for 18/19 corn and 20-31 mbu for 19/20

T-storm Weather®: scattered rain occurs Sat.-Sun. in the Dakotas & northwest half of the U.S. Corn Belt; 0.25”-0.75” in/near IA, MN, NE, & the Dakotas. A stormy period follows Sep. 9-15 within northwest two-thirds of the central U.S.
ATI Research: Sluggish development of the 2019 U.S. corn crop is reflected in crop progress. Corn dented on average increases 14% over Sep. 1-8 to approx. 77%; however, corn dented this year as of Sep. 1 was only at 41%

· Ethanol grind: Total of 1,013,000 barrels/day for week end Aug. 30—dn 25 thou v. prior week and 6.8% lower v. 2018

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

· Export Sales report. Trade expects (6) - 4 mbu for 18/19 soybeans and 7-22 for 19/20; soymeal, 25-75 K MT for 18/19 and 100-250 for 19/20; soyoil, 0-20 K MT for 18/19 and 0-8 for 19/20

T-storm Weather®: a cooler period occurs in 1-2 weeks, but there is little chance for a killing freeze in U.S. soybeans

· Export Sales report. Trade expects 15-29 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

T-storm Weather®: at least near-normal rainfall is forecast over Sep. 7-13 for all un-harvested U.S. HRS wheat

ENERGY

· ; Weak: CLX19, -$0.81 @ $55.35; EBX, -$0.46 @ $60.49; EBX-QCLX, +.32; RBX, -.0210; NGX, -.029; HOX, -.0242

· Ethanol RINs were mixed with 2018’s off .50 @ 7 -9 ½ and 2019’s up 1.50 @ 16 -18 ½      

· The October RBOB/October ethanol spread narrowed $.0189 to $.2230/gal yesterday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  

Choice boxed beef was $1.23 lower on Thursday at $229.42 and is down $2.77 versus a week ago
October live cattle futures on Thursday posted a contract low of $97.175 and settled $1.15 lower at $97.875

· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.27 on Thu. to $71.83 but is still up $1.07 versus last week

· CME Lean Hog Index eased $1.32 on Thu. at $65.25. October futures fell $0.825 but are still $1.05 above the index ;

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

...

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HIGHLIGHTS

TRENDS—Mixed: CZ, +$.0125; SX, +$.0350; WZ, -$.0250; KWZ, -$.0150. Dely: SM, 340; BO, 43; RR, 28; C, 686; ETOH, 22: HRW, 28; SB, 580; SRW, 36
What caught my eye: IF USDA #’s are right, the Mid-South should be deficit nearly 140 mbu in storage capacity and have double the exportable surplus of last year, just at a time when the U.S. is facing a very weak SON Gulf export outlook

CZ, up $.0125 @ $3.60; CH, up $.01 @ $3.7275. The funds were buyers of 2 K, RFS optimism
SX, up $.0350 @ $8.65; SF, up $.03 @ $8.7850. Funds: Sold 7 K SB, 5 K SBM, 6 K SBO. Board Crush: $0.91, +1; LY, $1.58
WZ, dn $.0250 @ $4.6375; WH, dn $.0225 @ $4.7025. The funds were again buyers of 5 K

CORN/SORGHUM

· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT. Trade expects 0-4 mbu for 18/19 corn and 20-31 mbu for 19/20

T-storm Weather®: scattered rain occurs Sat.-Sun. in the Dakotas & northwest half of the U.S. Corn Belt; 0.25”-0.75” in/near IA, MN, NE, & the Dakotas. A stormy period follows Sep. 9-15 within northwest two-thirds of the central U.S.
ATI Research: Sluggish development of the 2019 U.S. corn crop is reflected in crop progress. Corn dented on average increases 14% over Sep. 1-8 to approx. 77%; however, corn dented this year as of Sep. 1 was only at 41%

· Ethanol grind: Total of 1,013,000 barrels/day for week end Aug. 30—dn 25 thou v. prior week and 6.8% lower v. 2018

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

· Export Sales report. Trade expects (6) - 4 mbu for 18/19 soybeans and 7-22 for 19/20; soymeal, 25-75 K MT for 18/19 and 100-250 for 19/20; soyoil, 0-20 K MT for 18/19 and 0-8 for 19/20

T-storm Weather®: a cooler period occurs in 1-2 weeks, but there is little chance for a killing freeze in U.S. soybeans

· Export Sales report. Trade expects 15-29 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

T-storm Weather®: at least near-normal rainfall is forecast over Sep. 7-13 for all un-harvested U.S. HRS wheat

ENERGY

· Weak: CLX19, -$0.81 @ $55.35; EBX, -$0.46 @ $60.49; EBX-QCLX, +.32; RBX, -.0210; NGX, -.029; HOX, -.0242

· Ethanol RINs were mixed with 2018’s off .50 @ 7 -9 ½ and 2019’s up 1.50 @ 16 -18 ½    

·   The October RBOB/October ethanol spread narrowed $.0189 to $.2230/gal yesterday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  

Choice boxed beef was $1.23 lower on Thursday at $229.42 and is down $2.77 versus a week ago

October live cattle futures on Thursday posted a contract low of $97.175 and settled $1.15 lower at $97.875

· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.27 on Thu. to $71.83 but is still up $1.07 versus last week

· CME Lean Hog Index eased $1.32 on Thu. at $65.25. October futures fell $0.825 but are still $1.05 above the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

...

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HIGHLIGHTS

TRENDS—Mixed: CZ, +$.0125; SX, +$.0350; WZ, -$.0250; KWZ, -$.0150. Dely: SM, 340; BO, 43; RR, 28; C, 686; ETOH, 22: HRW, 28; SB, 580; SRW, 36

What caught my eye: IF USDA #’s are right, the Mid-South should be deficit nearly 140 mbu in storage capacity and have double the exportable surplus of last year, just at a time when the U.S. is facing a very weak SON Gulf export outlook

· Aug non-farm payroll data & unemployment are the morning’s focus. ASIA: Up--Nikkei, 0.54%; Shanghai, +0.46%; Hang Seng, +0.66%. EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, +0.28%; FTSE, -0.16; CAC, -0.03%. WALL STREET—Futures are positive-- DOW, +72; S&P, +7.25; NAS, +10.75. EXTERNALS: Nov crude: -$0.81 @ $55.35; Gold: -$10 @ $1,516; $ Index: +.04 @ 98.450

· T-storm Weather®: A stormy period affects the central U.S. over the next 10 days as a sharp temperature gradient helps thunderstorms to occasionally affect a wide area from this weekend forward, producing heavy totals of 1.25” to 2.50” across much of the central / northern Plains and northwest two-thirds of the Corn Belt. A cooler period follows, but a killing freeze is not expected for corn and soybeans

CZ, up $.0125 @ $3.60; CH, up $.01 @ $3.7275. The funds were buyers of 2 K, RFS optimism

SX, up $.0350 @ $8.65; SF, up $.03 @ $8.7850. Funds: Sold 7 K SB, 5 K SBM, 6 K SBO. Board Crush: $0.91, +1; LY, $1.58

WZ, dn $.0250 @ $4.6375; WH, dn $.0225 @ $4.7025. The funds were again buyers of 5 K

CORN/SORGHUM

· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT. Trade expects 0-4 mbu for 18/19 corn and 20-31 mbu for 19/20

T-storm Weather®: scattered rain occurs Sat.-Sun. in the Dakotas & northwest half of the U.S. Corn Belt; 0.25”-0.75” in/near IA, MN, NE, & the Dakotas. A stormy period follows Sep. 9-15 within northwest two-thirds of the central U.S.

ATI Research: Sluggish development of the 2019 U.S. corn crop is reflected in crop progress. Corn dented on average increases 14% over Sep. 1-8 to approx. 77%; however, corn dented this year as of Sep. 1 was only at 41%

· Ethanol grind: Total of 1,013,000 barrels/day for week end Aug. 30—dn 25 thou v. prior week and 6.8% lower v. 2018

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

· Export Sales report. Trade expects (6) - 4 mbu for 18/19 soybeans and 7-22 for 19/20; soymeal, 25-75 K MT for 18/19 and 100-250 for 19/20; soyoil, 0-20 K MT for 18/19 and 0-8 for 19/20

T-storm Weather®: a cooler period occurs in 1-2 weeks, but there is little chance for a killing freeze in U.S. soybeans

· Export Sales report. Trade expects 15-29 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

T-storm Weather®: at least near-normal rainfall is forecast over Sep. 7-13 for all un-harvested U.S. HRS wheat

ENERGY

· Weak: CLX19, -$0.81 @ $55.35; EBX, -$0.46 @ $60.49; EBX-QCLX, +.32; RBX, -.0210; NGX, -.029; HOX, -.0242

· Chicago ethanol again slightly firm, up $.00125 to $1.32125; basis values were mixed: NYC, +$.01375 @ $.13875; Gulf, -$.00625 @ $.10375; Dallas, -$.00125 @ $.11375; Tampa, -$.00125 @ $.22875; LA, +$.00875 @ $.22875

· Ethanol RINs were mixed with 2018’s off .50 @ 7 -9 ½ and 2019’s up 1.50 @ 16 -18 ½ ; 

· The October RBOB/October ethanol spread narrowed $.0189 to $.2230/gal yesterday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  

Choice boxed beef was $1.23 lower on Thursday at $229.42 and is down $2.77 versus a week ago

October live cattle futures on Thursday posted a contract low of $97.175 and settled $1.15 lower at $97.875

· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.27 on Thu. to $71.83 but is still up $1.07 versus last week

· CME Lean Hog Index eased $1.32 on Thu. at $65.25. October futures fell $0.825 but are still $1.05 above the index   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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