HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mixed:  CZ, unch; SX, +$.02; WZ, -$.0325; KWZ, -$.0175 

·      What caught my eye:  COFCO comment about China soon needing corn—would help as after 8 years of steady growth in Non PRC/Non Exporter demand, we are looking at a slight decline TY.  And, competition has about 500 mbu MORE to ship Sep-Jan

·      Global equities are again weaker with an eye on trade discussions.  ASIA: Lower--Nikkei,-0.57%; Shanghai, -0.50%; Hang Seng, -0.44%.  EUROPE: Mostly lower—DAX, -0.22%; FTSE, -.11%; CAC, +0.20%.  WALL STREET—Futures are lower-- DOW, -8; S&P, -1.25; NAS, -0.75.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$0.02 @ $55.52; Gold: +$1.50 @ $1,492; $ Index: -.038 @ 97.652

• T-storm Weather®: A large and strong system produces heavy rainfall of 0.75” to 1.50” across the U.S. Delta and southeast half to two-thirds of the Corn Belt today-Thursday (including 1” to 3” of snow in / near KS, NE, northern MO, eastern IA, northern IL, and WI), further slowing and stopping corn and soybean harvesting by focusing on areas that received heavy rainfall several days ago.  Temperatures will be much colder than normal over the next 10 to 14 days as Arctic cold fronts pass every few days
• CZ, unch @ $3.8625; CH, dn $.0050 @ $3.9550.  The funds bought 3 K on Tuesday                
• SX, up $.02 @ $9.2025; SF, up $.0250 @ $9.36.  Funds: sold 4 K  SB; 2 K SBM & bot 2 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.89, +2; LY, $1.46
• WZ, dn $.0325 @ $5.0825; WH, dn $.0375 @ $5.1375.  The funds were even in yesterday’s trade              

CORN/SORGHUM

• T-storm Weather®: after Thursday, a sharply drier period occurs for the U.S. Corn Belt and lasts at least one week, except in northern areas where a few systems race eastward and produce light rain & snow showers every 1-3 days
• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is in the 15-25 mbu per week range

·      Consultant: delayed soybean planting in Parana & Mato Grosso do Sul to cause safrinha (double crop) corn to be planted outside ideal planting window; in ‘19, these 2 states combined accounted for 33% of Brazil’s safrinha acreage

• Ethanol margins: $0.25 per gallon—up from $0.23 last week and well above $0.09 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Consultant: in Brazil, soybean planting in the top producing state of Mato Grosso picked up noticeably last week, but dryness is delaying progress in south-central areas and some replanting will be necessary due to poor germination

• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports is in the 35-45 mbu per week range

·      T-storm Weather®: drought for wheat in southern Argentina to persist through at least first 7-10 days of November

·      ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports is in the 10-16 mbu per week range

ENERGY

·      Mixed: CLZ19, -$0.02 @ $55.52; EBZ, -$0.13 @ $61.72; EBZ-QCLZ, +.16; RBZ, +.0078; NGZ, +.004; HO​Z, +.0015

·      EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +0.5 (-1.7); Gasoline, -2.2 (-4.7); Distillates, -2.4 (-1.6).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 1.006 mbpd (range: 0.999-1.020).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 21.619 mb (range 21.064-22.060) 

·      Chicago ethanol declined $.0230 to $1.5393/gal; basis values were mostly firm:  NYC, +$.0080 @ +$.08575; Gulf, +$.0130 @ +$.05325; Dallas, +$.0080 @ +.0875; Tampa, +$.0180 @ +$.18575; LA, -$.0020 @ +$.23575

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker: 2018’s, -.50 @ 5-7; 2019’s, -.25 @ 14 ¾ -15; 2020’s, -.25 @ 23 -25                                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;          

·      ​;The November RBOB/November ethanol spread widened $.0249 to $.24070/gallon  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   ​                     ​

·      Choice boxed beef increased $2.65 on Tuesday to $230.55 and is $9.62 higher compared to a week ago     

• December live cattle futures on Tue. closed at $116.825—the highest settlement price for the contract since April 29

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 40-cents on Tuesday to $75.72 and is up 24-cents vs. last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.61 on Tue. to $63.51.  December futures fell $1.325 but are still $0.815 above the index              

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®