HIGHLIGHTS

TRENDS—Mixed:  CZ, unch; SX, +$.0075; WZ, +$.0175; KWZ, +$.0250.  Del’y: SB, 3; RR, 1 

·      What caught my eye:  The USDA sees global corn trade down over 11 MMT (440 mbu) in the coming year.  Yet, exports in the Oct-Sep year just completed for the 4 big guys were up 15%/760 mbu! And during the past 4 months, up nearly 9% year to year

·      Déjà vu—hope the U.S./China will roll back tariffs.  ASIA: Higher--Nikkei, +1.76%; Shanghai, +0.54%; Hang Seng, +0.49%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, +0.12%; FTSE, +0.40%; CAC, -0.02%.  WALL STREET—Futures are higher-- DOW, +73; S&P, +7.25; NAS, +25.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: +$0.42 @ $56.96; Gold: -$3.80 @ $1,5073; $ Index: +.023 @ 97.528

• T-storm Weather®: a series of cold fronts slide across the central U.S. every few days, leaving a wide area considerably colder than normal over the next 10 to 14 days with highs mostly in the 30s-40s & lows in the 20s-30s, averaging -6°F to -12°F from normal for most corn & soybeans.  Except for light rain & snow showers in northern areas at times, most will be dry over the next 7 to 10 days, except for a swath of moderate rainfall Thu. in the Delta & far southern Corn Belt when a passing system produces ~1.00”
• CZ, unch @ $3.8325; CH, dn $.0025 @ $3.9475.  The Funds opened the week by selling 10 K as private yield estimates increase                   
• SX, dn $.0050 @ $9.2525; SF, dn $.0150 @ $9.3650.  Funds: Even SB; sold 2 K SM, bot 10 K BO.  Board Crush: $0.90, +45; LY, $1.10
• WZ, up $.0175 @ $5.1150; WH, up $.0125 @ $5.1750.  Fund selling on Monday totaled 5 K             

    CORN/SORGHUM

·      Nov. 8 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2019 U.S. corn crop: 13.604 bbu (range 13.030-13.786) and 13.779 in Oct.

• Nov. 8 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn carryout--19/20, 1.800 bbu (range 1.479-2.065) and 1.929 in Oct.
• Corn Good/Excellent at 58% v. 56% last week & 68% last year.  Harvest at 52% v. 74% in 2018 & 5-year avg. of 75%

·      T-storm Weather®: some rain and snow potentially re-develop across U.S. corn in 10 to 14 days; best overall chances will be in wetter areas of the Delta and eastern Corn Belt, and lowest chances in the western Corn Belt and Plains

·      ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 19/20 U.S. corn 2.017 bbu versus October USDA est. of 1.929

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Nov. 8 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2019 U.S. soybean crop: 3.513 bbu (range 3.441-3.609) and 3.550 in Oct.

·      Nov. 8 WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean carryout--19/20, 0.432 bbu (range 0.330-0.521) and 0.460 in Oct.

·      U.S. soybean harvest is pegged at 75% compared to 81% last year and the 5-year average of 87%

·      ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 19/20 U.S. soybean 0.444 bbu versus October USDA est. of 0.460

·      T-storm Weather®: substantial rainfall to ease dryness on soybean areas of Brazil over the next one to two weeks

·      Nov. 8 WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. all wheat carryout--19/20, 1.030 bbu (range 0.958-1.078) and 1.043 in Oct.

·      U.S. winter wheat planting is pegged at 89% compared to 83% last year and 88% for the 5-year average  

ENERGY

·      Firmer: CLZ19, +$0.42 @ $56.96; EBF, +$0.67 @ $62.80; EBF-QCLF, +.23; RBZ, +.0144; NGZ, +.077; HOZ, +.0058

·      Chicago ethanol shed $.04 on Monday, easing to $1.52/gal; basis values were mostly steady/firm:  NYC, unch @ +$.12; Gulf, +$.01 @ +$.09; Dallas, +$.02 @ +.0850; Tampa, +$.05 @ +$.1950; LA, unch @ +$.19

·       Ethanol RINs were lower: 2018’s, -1.00 @ 4 -5; 2019’s, -1.1250 @ 12 ¾ -13 ½; 2020’s, -.9750 @ 22 ¾ -24                             ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;                      

·     ​ The December RBOB/November ethanol spread closed $.0080 wider at $.2127/gallon Monday   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                         ​               ​​​​​​​​​​​

·      Choice boxed beef increased $1.61 on Monday to $234.81 and is up $6.91 compared to a week ago      

• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price gained $2.90 last week to $113.03/cwt but is $1.92 lower v. last year

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value soared $3.40 on Mon. to $78.29 and is up $2.97 versus the previous week

·        Current nearby board hog crush value is $47.77/cwt vs. last week’s $48.00, last month’s $50.26 and last year’s $39.60               

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®