HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mixed:  CZ, steady; SX, -$.0050; WZ, +$.0150; KWZ, +$.0075 

·       What caught my eye:  U.S. corn exports may continue to struggle . . . while competitor exports are flat to lower in 19/20, non-Chinese/non-U.S.  demand growth is forecast as just 75 mbu, versus an average of 850 mbu/year the prior 3 years

·       Little news; Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey out, are they still cautious?  ASIA: Mostly firm--Nikkei,+0.22%; Shanghai, +0.48%; Hang Seng, -0.49%.  EUROPE: Weak—DAX, -0.25%; FTSE, -.52%; CAC, -0.07%.  WALL STREET—Futures are sort of firm-- DOW, +4; S&P, +2; NAS, +12.25.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$0.06@ $56.17; Gold: +$2.60 @ $1,507; $ Index: -.001 @ 97.630

• T-storm Weather®: for U.S. corn and soybeans, upper-level and quasi-tropical systems near TX merge and bring substantial rainfall of 1.00” to 2.00” to the Delta and southeast half of the Corn Belt today-Sat.  Dry and seasonable to mild weather follow Sunday, after which a very strong cold front passes over Mon.-Wed., most likely generating 0.25” to 0.75” of rain across the Corn Belt and Delta (mixed with some snow as the system exits the Corn Belt)
• CZ, unch @ $3.8675; CH, unch @ $3.98.  The funds sold 3 K on Thursday, sales at the low end of trade ideas               
• SX, dn $.0050 @ $9.3275; SF, dn $.0050 @ $9.465.  Funds: Even SB; sold 4 K SBM & bot 8 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.84, +2; LY, $1.40
• WZ, up $.0150 @ $5.1750; WH, up $.0125 @ $5.2250.  Fund selling yesterday was estimated at 4 K on weak export sales         

   CORN/SORGHUM

·       ATI Research: South American competition has depleted demand for U.S. corn; e.g. unshipped 19/20 export sales of U.S. corn as of Oct. 17 were 304 mbu—dn 40% from last year’s 510 mbu & 33% from 456 mbu on the books in 2017

• T-storm Weather®: after rain ends around Oct. 30, temps plummet to produce record-setting coldness for late-October and a killing freeze for corn within the northern half of the central U.S.; five to seven days of drying follow 

·       Consultant: Argentina corn planting as of late last week at 28.7%--3.9% slower than ‘18; production est. is 50.0 MMT  

·       Through Oct. 24, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for December 2019 corn futures has averaged $3.9039

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: Unshipped 19/20 export sales of U.S. soybeans as of Oct. 17 were 444 mbu, which is down 19% from last year’s 547 mbu and 37% from the 707 mbu on the books two years ago

• T-storm Weather®: after rain ends around Oct. 30, temps plummet to produce record-setting coldness for late-October and a killing freeze for soybeans within northern half of the central U.S.; five to seven days of drying follow 

·       ATI Research: Black Sea and EU supplies are crimping demand for U.S. wheat; e.g. unshipped 19/20 export sales of U.S. all wheat as of Oct. 17 were 152 mbu—down 11% from last year, 13% below the 5-year avg. & a 10-year low

·       T-storm Weather®: rainfall of 0.50”-1.00” affects driest wheat in Argentina Sat.-Mon., but more would be ideal

ENERGY

·       Weak: CLZ19, -$0.06 @ $56.17; EBZ, -$0.08 @ $61.58; EBZ-QCLZ, -.02; RBZ, +.0001; NGZ, -.009; HOZ, -.0022

·       Chicago ethanol was $.04 higher on Thursday, reaching $1.5250/gal; basis values were weaker:  NYC, -$.02 @ +$.0850; Gulf, -$.02 @ +$.0550; Dallas, -$.0350 @ +.0750; Tampa, -$.0250 @ +$.1950; LA, -$.0350 @ +$.2750

·       Ethanol RINs were mixed: 2018’s, unch @ 6 -8; 2019’s, -.25 @ 15 ¾ -16; 2020’s, +.50 @ 24-25                                                                 ​                         ​          

·      ​; The November RBOB/November ethanol spread narrowed $.0077 to $.2132/gallon  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  ​                     ​

·       Choice boxed beef increased $2.34 on Thursday to $225.62 and is $7.51 higher versus last week    

• Estimates for today’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Oct. 1 on feed, 98.9%; Placed in Sep., 101.5%; Marketed in Sep., 101.1%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 84-cents on Thursday to $73.57 & is $1.95 lower versus a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.23 on Thu. to $65.49.  December futures declined $1.275 & are $0.940 below the index              

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®