HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mixed:  CZ, -$.01; SX, +$.0075; WZ, +$.0050; KWZ, +$.0225 

·       What caught my eye:  Weather impact in Northern Plains/Corn Belt versus China wanting more discussions prior to signing off on “phase one” of the trade deal versus doubts about the overall strength of world commodity demand

·       Can we talk some more--China?  ASIA: Higher--Nikkei, Closed; Shanghai, +1.15%; Hang Seng, +0.81%.  EUROPE: Lower —DAX, -0.88%; FTSE, -0.64%; CAC, -1.00%.  WALL STREET—Well, that rally was short-lived-- DOW, -110; S&P, -13; NAS, -42.75.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: -$1.22 @ $53.48; Gold: +$10.70 @ $1,499; $ Index: +.100 @ 98.401

• Weather: Dry weather is forecast for western U.S. Corn Belt today.  Dry conditions or just a little light rain is likely Tue., while dry weather is forecast Wed.-Thu.  Temps avg. near to below normal today, below normal Tue., near to below normal Wed. & near to above normal Thu.  Dry weather is forecast for eastern Corn Belt today.  Light rain is likely Tue., but dry weather is forecast Wed.-Thu.  Temps avg. near to below normal today, near to above normal Tue., below normal Wed., & near to above normal Thu.
• CZ, dn $.01 @ $3.9675; CH, dn $.0175 @ $4.06.  Trade agreement on the horizon as funds buy 35 K to close out the week?           
• SX, up $.0075 @ $9.3675; SF, up $.0050 @ $9.51.  Funds: Bot 8 SB, 4 SBM, & 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.77, -4; LY, $1.53
• WZ, up $.0050 @ $5.0850; WH, up $.0050 @ $5.1450.  The funds bought an estimated 10 K on Friday           
• December 2019 corn futures on Friday closed at $3.97 ¾--highest settlement price for the contract since Aug. 9
• Weather: NWS 6-10 day forecast for Oct. 19-23 calls for above to much above normal precip for the entire Midwest.  Temps are forecast to be above normal for most areas except Northern Plains where normal readings are projected
• Through Oct. 11, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for December 2019 corn futures has averaged $3.8986  

·       ATI Research: USDA Crop Progress report is delayed until Tuesday due to the holiday.  The five-year average for corn mature for week ending Oct. 13 is 92%; however, corn mature as of Oct. 6 was only 58% 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• November 2019 soybean futures on Friday closed at $9.36--highest settlement price for the contract since June 20
• Weather: NWS 6-10 day forecast for Oct. 19-23 calls for above to much above normal precip for the entire Midwest.  Temps are forecast to be above normal for most areas except Northern Plains where normal readings are projected

·       Through Oct. 11, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for November 2019 soybean futures has averaged $9.2003

• Chicago SRW December wheat futures on Fri. closed at $5.08--highest settlement price for the contract since July 29

·       Dryness concerns persist for reproductive wheat in Western Australia—largest wheat producing state in the country

ENERGY

·       Down: CLX19, -$1.22 @ $53.48; EBZ, -$1.45 @ $59.06; EBZ-QCLZ, -.20; RBX, -.0329; NGX, +.069; HOX, -.0365

·       Chicago ethanol was up $.05 on Friday at @ $1.67; basis values were mostly weaker:  NYC, -$.0150 @ +$.16; Gulf, +$.01 @ +$.06; Dallas, -$.0050 @-.0050; Tampa, -$.01 @ +$.07; LA, -$.01 @ $.13

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker with 2018’s,-0.75 @ 7 -9; 2019’s, -0.25 @ 16 ½ -18 ½                            ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                      

·       The November RBOB/November ethanol spread lost $.0205 on Friday to close at $.1310/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​;                   ​       

·    &​nbsp;  Choice boxed beef increased 3-cents on Friday to $215.66 and is $3.70 higher compared to a week ago

• December live cattle futures on Friday closed at $112.150—highest settlement price for the contract since Aug. 1

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 96-cents on Fri. to $77.02 and is $2.58 higher versus last week

·       CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.53 on Fri. to $61.18.  October futures firmed $0.525 and are $1.745 above the index                          &​nbsp; 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN