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TRENDS Mixed CU, Up 4, SU, Up 3, WU, Unchanged

August 15, 2019 07:22 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Mixed:  CU, +$.0275; SU, +$.02; WU, -$.03; KWU, +$.0175.  Del’y: SB: 143; SBM: 69; SBO: 0
  • What caught my eye: The poor corn export outlook is getting a lot of attention but at the same time, combined old/new crop unshipped soybean sales are at a 14-year low and new crop interest is really struggling

·       Recession fears appear to be gaining momentum.  ASIA: Sort of firm-Nikkei, -1.21%; Shanghai, +0.25%; Hang Seng, +0.76%.  EUROPE: Sharply lower—DAX, -1.62%; FTSE, -1.39%; CAC, -1.19%.  WALL STREET—futures, deja vu-- DOW, -148;S&P, -14.00; NAS, -72.75.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: -$1.08 @ $54.17Gold:  +$3.80$1,531; $ Index-.014 @ 97.850

·       T-storm Weather®: U.S. corn and soybeans remain divided by heat to the southwest and coolness to the northeast over the next two weeks, causing temps to fluctuate, but average near to only slightly warmer than normal.  Near-normal rainfall is probable for most, though rapid temperature fluctuations and uncertainties in the exact setup make pinpointing rains difficult.  That said, significant totals are probable within the northwest half to two-thirds of corn and soybeans through Tue.

  • CU, up $.0275 @ $3.6175; CZ, up $.0275 @ $3.73.  The funds sold 5 K at mid-week      
  • SU, up $.02 @ $8.6750; SX, up $.02 @ $8.80.  Funds: Sold 4 SB, 3 K SBM, & even SBO.  Board Crush: $1.03, -1; LY, $1.74
  • WU, dn $.03 @ $4.7075; WZ, dn $.03 @ $4.7525.  Fund buying estimated at 1 K yesterday             

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 4-12 mbu for 18/19 corn and 4-16 mbu for 19/20

  • T-storm Weather®: Several strong thunderstorm clusters form within the northwest half of U.S. corn over today-Sat. and produce 0.50” to 1.50”, except for higher totals of 1.00” to 3.00” in / near parts of IA and MO
  • ATI Research: Delayed development of 2019 U.S. corn crop is illustrated in dough stage.  The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn dough increases approx. 15% from Aug. 11-18 to 76%; but corn dough for 2019 as of Aug. 11 was only at 39%
  • Ethanol grind: Total of 1,045,000 barrels/day for week end Aug. 9—up 5 thou v. prior week but down 2.5% v. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 2-11 mbu for 18/19 soybeans and 4-15 for 19/20; soymeal, 75-200 K MT for 18/19 and 100-200 for 19/20; soyoil, 8-22 K MT for 18/19 and 0-10 for 19/20 

  • T-storm Weather®: Several strong thunderstorm clusters form within the northwest half of U.S. soybeans over today-Sat. and produce 0.50” to 1.50”, except for higher totals of 1.00” to 3.00” in / near parts of IA and MO

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 7-18 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

·       T-storm Weather®: Drought across Australia wheat intensifies the next 7-10 days, despite some rains in/near Victoria

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLV19, -$1.08 @ $54.47; EBV, -$1.26 @ $58.22; EBV-QCLV-.16; RBV,-.0323; NGV, +.005HOV, -.0268

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0025 higher at $1.3050 at mid-week; basis values were weaker: NYC, -$.04 @ $.07; Gulf, -$.0425 @ $.06500; Dallas, -$.0425 @ $.1250; Tampa, -$.0525 @ $.2350; LA, -$.0525 @ $.2350

·       Ethanol RINs were $.25 lower with 2018’s @ 4 ½ - 5 and 2019’s @ 11 ½ -12                                                          &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;   

·       The September RBOB/September ethanol spread lost $.0276 to $.4208/gallon; trading $.3725 this a.m.  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            &n​bsp;          

  • Choice boxed beef was $5.98 higher on Wednesday at $232.34 and is up $15.85 compared to a week ago
  • Choice boxed beef has increased $20.17 (9.5%) since July 26, and is at the highest level since April 29

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 58-cents on Wed. to $87.34 but is still up 7-cents vs. last week  

·       CME Lean Hog Index fell $1.09 on Wed. to $79.86.  October futures gained $2.200 but are $13.085 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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