HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mixed:  CU, +$.02; SQ, -$.0075; WU, +$.0075; KWU, +$.0225. Del’y: SB: 1,226; SBM: 238; SBO: 736
• What caught my eye: Is U.S. corn uncompetitive in the world market or what?  Brazil corn on a FOB basis is $.34 per bushel cheaper than the Gulf and delivered into Far East, it has a $.62/bushel cost advantage

·      Futures rebound after yesterdays’ post rate cut decline.  Asia: Mostly lower--Nikkei, +0.09%; Shanghai, -0.81%; Hang Seng, -0.76%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.48%; FTSE, +0.15%; CAC, +0.69%.  WALL STREET—Futures are up: DOW, +68;S&P, +7.00; NAS, +27.25.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: -$0.72 @ $57.91; Gold:  -$18.50@ $1,419; $ Index: +.365 @ 98.881

·      T-storm Weather®: Coolness affects most U.S. corn, soybeans, & spring wheat over the next 10 days.  Rainfall will be limited over the next week, though heavy rain affects a small area of the southwest Corn Belt, & a few thunderstorms form in the central / northern Plains & Delta.  A warmer period unfolds from late next week or weekend forward, which is probable to develop a more favorable setup for occasional thunderstorms, especially within the southern half to two-thirds of corn & soybean production

• CU, up $.02 @ $4.0225; CZ, up $.0175 @ $4.1175.  Heavy fund selling, 25 K with no heat in the forecast & improved rain ideas    
• SQ, dn $.0075 @ $8.6325; SU, dn $.0025 @ $8.6875.  Funds: Sell 15 K SB, 4 K SBM, & 7 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.97, +4; LY, $1.59
• WU, up $.0075 @ $4.88; WZ, dn $.0025 @ $4.93.  The funds sell 7 K at mid-week as row crop weakness spills over to wheat     

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·      Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 6-16 mbu for 18/19 corn and 6-18 mbu for 19/20

• T-storm Weather®: Cool surface-level high pressure near the Corn Belt leaves highs in 70s-80s & lows in the 50s-60s the next several days; rainfall of 1.00”-3.00” falls in/near eastern KS-NE & western IA-MO, but most areas will be dry 
• ATI Research: Our bias on near-term U.S. sorghum exports continues at 1-3 mbu per week
• Ethanol grind: Total of 1,031,000 barrels/day for week end July 26—dn 8 thou v. prior week and dn 3.1% v. last year
• December 2019 corn futures on Wed. closed at $4.10—the lowest settlement price for the contract since May 23

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Export Sales report.  Trade expects (2)-9 mbu for 18/19 soybeans and 6-17 for 19/20; soymeal, 50-250 K MT for 18/19 and 100-200 for 19/20; soyoil, 5-25 K MT for 18/19 and 0-10 for 18/19 

• T-storm Weather®: Cool surface-level high pressure near the Corn Belt leaves highs in 70s-80s & lows in the 50s-60s the next several days; rainfall of 1.00”-3.00” falls in/near eastern KS-NE & western IA-MO, but most areas will be dry 

·      Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-22 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

• T-storm Weather®: Drought intensifies over next 7-10 days across eastern Australia wheat, but cooler than normal

ENERGY

·      Down: CLV19, -$0.72 @ $57.91; EBV, -$0.62 @ $6.42; EBV-QCLV, +.09; RBV,-.0221; NGV, +.007; HOV, -.0198

·      Chicago ethanol dropped $.0425 to 1.47375 at mid-week; basis values were mostly lower: NYC, -$.01325 @ $.09375; Gulf, -$.00825 @ $.08875; Dallas, -$.00075 @ $.11625; Tampa, +$.00425 @ $.22625; LA, -$.01075 @ $.18625

·      Ethanol RINs were 1.8750 lower with 2018’s @ 15 ½ -16 ½; and 2019’s @ 19 ½ -20 ½                                             &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                

·      The September RBOB/August ethanol spread leaked out $.0241 per gallon on Wednesday to $.4540

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   ​                     

• Choice boxed beef declined 49-cents on Wednesday to $213.54 and is 6-cents lower compared to a week ago 
• Light cash cattle trade occurred on Wednesday in Texas at $111 per cwt

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 78-cents higher on Wed. at $86.15 and is up $6.07 versus last week

·      CME Lean Hog Index gained $1.31 on Wed. to $83.41.  August futures fell $2.975 and are $4.085 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mixed:  CU, +$.02; SQ, -$.0075; WU, +$.0075; KWU, +$.0225. Del’y: SB: 1,226; SBM: 238; SBO: 736
• What caught my eye: Is U.S. corn uncompetitive in the world market or what?  Brazil corn on a FOB basis is $.34 per bushel cheaper than the Gulf and delivered into Far East, it has a $.62/bushel cost advantage

·      Futures rebound after yesterdays’ post rate cut decline.  Asia: Mostly lower--Nikkei, +0.09%; Shanghai, -0.81%; Hang Seng, -0.76%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.48%; FTSE, +0.15%; CAC, +0.69%.  WALL STREET—Futures are up: DOW, +68;S&P, +7.00; NAS, +27.25.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: -$0.72 @ $57.91; Gold:  -$18.50@ $1,419; $ Index: +.365 @ 98.881

·      T-storm Weather®: Coolness affects most U.S. corn, soybeans, & spring wheat over the next 10 days.  Rainfall will be limited over the next week, though heavy rain affects a small area of the southwest Corn Belt, & a few thunderstorms form in the central / northern Plains & Delta.  A warmer period unfolds from late next week or weekend forward, which is probable to develop a more favorable setup for occasional thunderstorms, especially within the southern half to two-thirds of corn & soybean production

• CU, up $.02 @ $4.0225; CZ, up $.0175 @ $4.1175.  Heavy fund selling, 25 K with no heat in the forecast & improved rain ideas    
• SQ, dn $.0075 @ $8.6325; SU, dn $.0025 @ $8.6875.  Funds: Sell 15 K SB, 4 K SBM, & 7 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.97, +4; LY, $1.59
• WU, up $.0075 @ $4.88; WZ, dn $.0025 @ $4.93.  The funds sell 7 K at mid-week as row crop weakness spills over to wheat     

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·      Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 6-16 mbu for 18/19 corn and 6-18 mbu for 19/20

• T-storm Weather®: Cool surface-level high pressure near the Corn Belt leaves highs in 70s-80s & lows in the 50s-60s the next several days; rainfall of 1.00”-3.00” falls in/near eastern KS-NE & western IA-MO, but most areas will be dry 
• ATI Research: Our bias on near-term U.S. sorghum exports continues at 1-3 mbu per week
• Ethanol grind: Total of 1,031,000 barrels/day for week end July 26—dn 8 thou v. prior week and dn 3.1% v. last year
• December 2019 corn futures on Wed. closed at $4.10—the lowest settlement price for the contract since May 23

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Export Sales report.  Trade expects (2)-9 mbu for 18/19 soybeans and 6-17 for 19/20; soymeal, 50-250 K MT for 18/19 and 100-200 for 19/20; soyoil, 5-25 K MT for 18/19 and 0-10 for 18/19 

• T-storm Weather®: Cool surface-level high pressure near the Corn Belt leaves highs in 70s-80s & lows in the 50s-60s the next several days; rainfall of 1.00”-3.00” falls in/near eastern KS-NE & western IA-MO, but most areas will be dry 

·      Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-22 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

• T-storm Weather®: Drought intensifies over next 7-10 days across eastern Australia wheat, but cooler than normal

ENERGY

·      Down: CLV19, -$0.72 @ $57.91; EBV, -$0.62 @ $6.42; EBV-QCLV, +.09; RBV,-.0221; NGV, +.007; HOV, -.0198

·      Chicago ethanol dropped $.0425 to 1.47375 at mid-week; basis values were mostly lower: NYC, -$.01325 @ $.09375; Gulf, -$.00825 @ $.08875; Dallas, -$.00075 @ $.11625; Tampa, +$.00425 @ $.22625; LA, -$.01075 @ $.18625

·      Ethanol RINs were 1.8750 lower with 2018’s @ 15 ½ -16 ½; and 2019’s @ 19 ½ -20 ½                                              &nbs​p;                        ​;               

·      The September RBOB/August ethanol spread leaked out $.0241 per gallon on Wednesday to $.4540

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   &nb​sp;                    

• Choice boxed beef declined 49-cents on Wednesday to $213.54 and is 6-cents lower compared to a week ago 
• Light cash cattle trade occurred on Wednesday in Texas at $111 per cwt

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 78-cents higher on Wed. at $86.15 and is up $6.07 versus last week

·      CME Lean Hog Index gained $1.31 on Wed. to $83.41.  August futures fell $2.975 and are $4.085 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather