HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mixed:  CU, +$.0125; SU, +$.03; WU, -$.0375; KWU, -$.0325
• What caught my eye: Based on the latest South American corn production estimates and exports through mid-summer, combined shipments from Argentina and Brazil during the Sep-Nov period are expected to be approximately 225-250 mbu higher this fall

·       Yield curve again, with 10 & 2 yr rate at -6 basis points.  ASIA: Mostly lower-Nikkei, +0.11%; Shanghai, -0.29%; Hang Seng, -0.19%.  EUROPE: Mostly lower—DAX, -0.73%; FTSE,+0.25%; CAC, -0.59%.  WALL STREET—Futures are struggling-- DOW, +20; S&P, +3.50; NAS,+5.75.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: +$0.78 @ $55.71; Gold:  unch @ $1,552; $ Index: +.010 @ 98.10

·       T-storm Weather®:  Coolness dominates over the next week, which is typically ideal for corn and soybeans at this time of year by lengthening the fill period.  Some warming follows, but only near- or below-normal temperatures occur in one to two weeks, and there is no risk of a killing freeze.  The rainfall forecast is more uncertain as some hints of significant totals exist in parts of the central Plains and western Corn Belt Fri.-Sat., and have been slightly increased amounts to account for several possibilities. 

• CU, up $.0125 @ $3.5825; CZ, dn $.0025 @ $3.6650.  The funds went home even on Tuesday       
• SU, up $.03 @ $8.4925; SX, up $.03 @ $8.6225.  Funds: Sold 5 K SB, 2 K SBM, & 1 K SBO.  Board Crush: $1.03, +1; LY, $1.51
• WU, dn $.0375 @ $4.70; WZ, dn $.0350 @ $4.7325.  The funds were again buyers of 1 K yesterday                    

CORN/SORGHUM

T-storm Weather®:  Temperatures will be ideally cool for the U.S. through next week, followed by some warming with a mixed rainfall outlook. 

·       August corn exports are expected to fall to a 6-year low of 105-100 mbu, less than ½ of the August 2018 total and the the Sep-Nov period is likely to see a 45% decline from the 633 shippped last year due to large S Am crops

·       ATI Research: Near-term corn exports remain estimated at 15-25 per week, versus model at 15-22

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• T-storm Weather®: The soybean outlook could be better if rain chances in the coming week improve; it will be favorable cool across the U.S during the period

·       The September forecastcalls for dryness in Central Brazil with a generally favorable start in Southern Brazil as adequate rains are forecast.  Dryness in Mato Grosso to start is generally yield neutral but could delay safrinha corn

·       U.S. soybean exports for the month of  August are on a record pace and likely to finish the month around 170 mbu, or about 50 million more than 2018.  Expect near-term shipments of 30-40 million per week

• T-storm Weather®: periods of rain will benefit Western Australia while drought will continue in the East

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLV19, +$0.78 @ $55.71; EBV, +$0.75 @ $60.26; EBV-QCLV, -.04; RBV, +.0123; NGV,+.037; HOV, +.0221

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude, -2.1 (-11.1); Gasoline, -0.4 (-0.3); Distillates, +0.9 (-2.5).  Ethanol: production, 1.03 mbpd with a range of 1.02-1.03; Stocks, 23.04 mb and a range of 22.867-23.297 mb

·       Chicago ethanol gained $.00125 Tuesday to $1.32625; basis values were mixed: NYC, +$.00375 @ $.13625; Gulf, +$.01875 @ $.10375; Dallas, -$.00625 @ $.09875; Tampa, +$.00875 @ $.19375; LA, -$.00625 @ $.19375

·       Ethanol RINs were firmer with 2018’s up 1.00 at @ 6 ½ -7 ½ and 2019’s 0.625 higher at @ 14 ¼ -15                                         &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       

·       The September RBOB/September ethanol spread widened $.0334 Tuesday to close at $.3549/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp; 

• Choice boxed beef was $1.30 lower on Tuesday and is down $4.94 versus a week ago  
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price unavailable Tuesday, vs $109.00 LW and NA, LY

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $4.15 Tuesday to $73.50 and is $8.59 lower v last week  

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.63/cwt vs. last week’s $43.57, last month’s $43.35 & last year’s $25.26

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather