HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mixed: CK, -$.0125; SK, -$.02; WK, +$.0050; KWK, +$.0075
• What caught my eye:  We probably need to sell China another 3+ MMT of 18/19 soybeans if the USDA’s 1.875 bbu export forecast is going to be achieved  Then, there’s the question is just how strong is their protein demand (ASF) this year?
• Equity markets still concerned about global economic growth.  Asia: Mostly lower-Nikkei, -0.23%; Shanghai, +0.85%; Hang Seng, +0.56%. EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.16%; FTSE, -0.28%; CAC, -0.33%.  WALL STREET: futures are Lower: DOW, -62; S&P, -4.50; NAS, -4.25. EXTERNALS: May crude: -$0.40 @ $59.54; Gold:  +$2.90 @ $1,318; Dec$ Index, NA
• Weather: In the U.S., mostly dry weather is forecast for the western Midwest today.  Temps average above to well above normal today and above normal on Thu.  Light to locally moderate rain develops in the south on Thu.  In the eastern Midwest, dry weather is projected for daytime hours today with light rain favoring north and west areas tonight.  Temps average above normal west today and below normal east before warming to above to well above normal on Thu.  Light to moderate rain occurs on Thu. 

·       CK, down $.0125 @ $3.76; CN, down $.0150 @ $3.8550.  The funds sold 4 K yesterday               

• SK, dn $.02 @ $8.9875; SN, dn $.0175 @ $9.1250.  Funds: Sold 4 SB, 5 SBM & 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.99, -5; LY, $1.47
• WK, up $.0050 @ $4.6975; WN, up $.0050 @$4.75.  Managed Money Accounts sold an estimated 3 K          

CORN/SORGHUM

·   ​;    Consultant: Brazil corn crop est. is unch at 93.5 MMT.  Early plantedsafrinha (double crop) corn in Mato Grosso is doing well as moisture has mostly been good.  However, dryness in April could impact later planted corn in the south

• Weather: In Brazil, favorable weather noted for safrinha (double crop) corn, but some are forecasting a drier April

·       Ethanol margins: $0.14 per gallon—down vs. $0.18 last week & well below $0.39 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

·       ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn exports forecast at 35-45 mbu per week v. 60.5 for the upcoming 4-weeks in 2018

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is unch at 54.0 MMT.  The early soybean harvest recently got underway in the core production region, with early yields higher than what had been expected and 15-20% higher than average

• Weather: In Argentina, rain could develop this coming weekend for key soybean areas and may briefly delay harvest
• ATI Research: U.S. wheat exports next 4 weeks are forecast at 15-20 mbu per week compared to 18.4 mbu last year

·       Weather: In the U.S., a new moderate to heavy rain event looks likely for Midwest SRW wheat at the end of this week

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLK19, -$0.40 @ $59.54; EBK, -$0.19 @ $67.78; EBK-QCLK, +$0.21; RBK, -.0082; NGK, -.017; HOK, -0.0072

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -1.2 (+1.9); Gasoline, -2.8 (-3.5); Distillates, -0.9 (-4.3).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.965 mbpd (range: 0.933-1.015).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 24.095 mb (range 23.641-24.912)

·       Chicago ethanol slipped $.01375 Tuesday to $1.40250; basis, Mixed: New York, +$.00375 @ $.18; Gulf, +$.01375 @ $.15250; Dallas, +$.00625 @ $.21750; Tampa, -$.00125 @ $.36250; LA, -$.00125 @ $.44250   

·       Ethanol RINs, weaker: 2017’s, 0.00 @ 2 -3; 2018’s, -0.25 @ 12 -13; 2019’s, -0.6250 @ 14 ¾ - 15 ½                          &nbs​p;                     

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·       The April RBOB/April ethanol spread was again wide, $.0258 to+$.5457/gallon    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            ​                     &nbs​p;     

• Choice boxed beef firmed 51-cents on Tuesday to $229.51, and is 18-cents higher compared a week ago
• Trade est. for Thursday’s USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs: All Hogs & Pigs, 102.0%; Breeding, 101.9%, Marketing, 102.1%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased $1.14 on Tuesday to $79.23, and is up $6.46 versus last week

• CME Lean Hog Index climbed $2.16 on Tue. to $67.13  April futures gained $1.075 and are $12.595 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN

 

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