HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—Mixed: CH, +$.0250; SH, +$.0950; WH, -$.0125; KWH, -$.0150. President Trump delays U.S. increase in tariffs on China imports
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What caught my eye: Simply, trade talks progressing “satisfactorily”; how much, when & what is the old/new crop C/SB split?
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Asia: Much higher--Nikkei, +0.48%; Shanghai, +5.60%; Hang Seng, +0.50%. EUROPE: Up—DAX, +0.41%; FTSE, +0.17%; CAC, +0.45%. WALL STREET: Futures, up: DOW, +169; S&P, +13.00; NAS, +45.00. EXTERNALS: April crude: +$0.13 @ $57.39; Gold: -$0.70 @ $1,332;Mar $ Index, -0.152 @ 96.215.
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T-storm Weather: In Brazil, thunderstorms occur in varying areas at varying times over the next two weeks, producing widespread coverage of near- and above-normal rainfall of 2.50” to 5.00”. In Argentina, most areas will be dry and unseasonably cool over the next five days with maximums mostly in the 70s, marking an end to last week’s heat wave. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms follow Fri.-Sun. (March 1-3), but better organized rainfall likely holds until next week
· CH, up $.0250 @ $3.7775; CK, up $.0250 @ $3.87. Funds were even in Friday’s trade
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SH, up $.0950 @ $9.1975; SK, up $.09 @ $9.3275. Funds: Even beans, even meal bot 1 SMB. Board Crush: $.98, +1; LY, $1.48
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WH, dn $.0125 @ $4.8550; WK, dn $.01 @ $4.9075. The funds bought 2 K to close out the week
CORN/SORGHUM
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 53.5 mbu needed; 37.1 last week. Milo—2.4 needed; 4.7 last week
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T-storm Weather: In Argentina, most corn producing areas are expected to remain drier than normal over the next two weeks. Some late-corn areas need rain
· Consultant: In Brazil, planting of safrinha (double crop) corn in some states is 10 to 15 days earlier than normal. This corn could receive 1-2 more rains than normal before the end of the rainy season, & would occur during grain fill
· USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum on Friday pegged 19/20 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.650 bbu vs. 1.735 in 18/19
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Secretary of Agriculture Perdue on Fri. confirmed China has committed to buy an additional 10 MMT of U.S. soybeans
· T-storm Weather: In Argentina, better organized rainfall develops March 4-8 for soybeans, although below-normal totals are forecast over the next 2 weeks. Soybeans will be in need of additional rain beyond the first week of March
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 35.9 mbu needed; 37.9 last week
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 28.1 mbu needed; 13.1 last week
· T-storm Weather: In the U.S., a total of 79% of the HRW wheat crop was wetter than normal over the last 180 days
ENERGY
· Higher: CLJ19, +$0.13 @ $57.39; EBJ, -$0.04 @ $67.08; EBJ-QCLJ, -$0.19;RBJ, -.0028; NGJ, +.042; HOJ, +0.0037
· Chicago ethanol eased $.02025 on Friday to $1.32350; basis values firmed: New York, +$.03025 @ $.1265; Gulf, +$.03525 @ $.12150; Dallas, +$.03025 @ $.10150; Tampa, +.03025 @ $.21150; LA, +$.03025 @ $.2165
· Ethanol RINs, again firmer: 2017’s, +0.75 @ 19-19 ½; 2018’s,+0.75 @ 20-20 ½; 2019’s, +0.50 @ 22 ½ - 23 ;
· The March RBOB/March ethanol spread gave up $.0058 on Friday and settled at +$.2652
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
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Choice boxed beef increased $1.32 on Friday to $219.39, and is $3.32 higher compared to a week ago
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Cattle on Feed: Jan. 1 on feed, 101.7% (102.2% avg est); Dec. placed, 98.2% (101.4%); Dec. Market, 99.4% (99.7%)
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.90 on Fri. to $57.16,and is $4.71 lower compared to last week
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CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.41 on Fri. to $53.65. April futures eased $0.50 but are still $1.80 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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