HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mixed: CH, +$.03; SH, -$.0150; WH, -$.0025; KWH, -$.0075
• MACRO:  Overseas markets are positive; U.S. futures nervousness over China trade talks persists.  Asia: Higher--Nikkei, +0.60%; Shanghai,+0.20%; Hang Seng, +1.01%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.22%; FTSE,+0.14%; CAC, +0.19%.  WALL STREET: Futures are weaker: DOW, -37;S&P, -3.25; NAS, -2.75.  EXTERNALS: March crude: -$0.31 @ $55.78;Gold:  +$2.30 @ $1,347; Mar $ Index, +0.086 @ 96.435 
• Weather: In Brazil, scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers favor Goias and Mato Grosso through Thursday. Temps average near to above normal during this period.  In Argentina, mostly dry today.  Showers may develop through southern areas during Thursday, but continued dry central and north.  Temps average above normal during this period with highs mostly in the low to mid 90s F.  Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers develop in the south and spread north Fri.-Sat.

·       CH, up $.03 @ $3.7275; CK, up $.03 @ $3.81.  ASF rumor related heavy fund selling on Tuesday, estimated at 15 K       

• SH, dn $.0150 @ $8.9925; SK, dn $.0125 @ $9.1325.  Funds: Sold 7 K SB, 4 K SBM, 3 K SBO.  Board Crush: $.98, +2; LY, $1.52
• WH, dn $.0025 @ $4.8950; WK, dn $.0025 @ $4.92.  The funds began the week selling 10 K          

     CORN/SORGHUM

· &n​bsp;     Consultant: Argentina corn production est. is unchanged at 42.0 MMT; planting is complete.  Yields from early planted corn in core areas are going to be very good, but there is uncertainty about crop is the south due to recent dryness

·       Weather: In Argentina, mostly dry weather impacts corn in the far southern provinces of Buenos Aires and La Pampa through Sunday.  A few light showers with locally heavier amounts occur during Monday or Monday night.

·       ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 corn ending stocks estimate is 1.865 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 1.735 bbu

·       Base pricing period for 2019 crop insurance continues; month-to-date avg. for December 2019 corn futures is $4.0069

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. is unch at 113.0 MMT with a neutral bias going forward.  Weather has improved 

·       Weather: In Brazil, rain and thunderstorms totaling 1.00”-2.00” (and locally heavier), occurred in soybean areas of Mato Grosso and Goias during the weekend.  This could delay harvest in some areas, although others may benefit

·       ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 soybean ending stocks estimate is 0.969 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 0.910 bbu

·       Base pricing period for 2019 crop insurance continues.  Month-to-date avg. November 2019 soybean futures: $9.5542

·       ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 SRW wheat ending stocks estimate is 0.156 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 0.163 bbu

·       T-storm Weather: In Russia and Ukraine, fluctuating temps with some rain and snow over next 7-10 days for wheat

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLH19, -$0.31 @ $55.78; EBJ, -$0.50 @ $65.94; EBJ-QCLJ, -$0.14;RBH, -.0100; NGH, +.009; HOH, -0.0121

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.02250 @ $1.3150; basis values mostly firmer: New York, -$.0075 @ $.0650; Gulf, +$.0250 @ $.0925; Dallas, +$.0125 @ $.0750; Tampa, +.02250 @ $.1750; LA, +$.01 @ $.19250   

·       Ethanol RINs, lower: 2017’s, -0.50 @ 18 1/3- 18 ¾; 2018’s,+0.75 @ 19 ¼ -19 ¾; 2019’s, -0.25 @ 22 – 22 ½                                ​       

·       The March RBOB/March ethanol spread widened $.0059 yesterday to+$.2498; trading $.2278 this am    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    &nbs​p;                  

​

• Choice boxed beef firmed 42-cents on Tuesday to $217.27, and is up 11-cents versus last week 
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $0.02 v. last week at $124.96/cwt, and is $4.79 lower v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.42 on Tuesday to $58.65, and is down $5.17 versus a week ago

• CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.31 on Tue. to $54.43.  April futures fell $3.00 but are still $2.095 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

                   

​