HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Lower:  CZ, -$.0475; SX, -$.0650; WZ, -$.06; KWZ, -$.04. 
• What caught my eye: two weeks do not an export year make, but inspections of both corn and soybeans are off to a less than stellar start and risk falling short of 1^st quarter ideas of 300-350 for the former and 500-525 for the latter (subject to China)

·       Markets most lower, geopolitical worries back in the news.  ASIA: Mostly lower--Nikkei, +0.06%; Shanghai, -1.74%; Hang Seng, -1.23%.  EUROPE: Mostly lower—DAX, -0.24%; FTSE, +0.17%; CAC, -0.01%.  WALL STREET—Futures are weaker-- DOW, -41; S&P, -3.25; NAS, -12.75.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: -$1.10 @ $61.57; Gold:  +$12.000 @ $1,512; $ Index: +.033 @ 98.643

·       T-storm Weather®: Unseasonable mildness continues the central U.S. into the weekend, followed by a seasonably-cooler pattern, but killing freezes are unlikely for at least two more weeks.  This week will be dry in much of the central U.S. (except IA and MN), followed by pockets of rain and thunderstorms within a wide area over Sep. 20-23, including wet spring wheat.  Brazil slowly receives some rain with time (including Paranà this week and Mato Grosso next week), but not heavy totals

• CZ, dn $.0475 @ $3.6925; CH, dn $.0425 @ $3.8175.  Fund buying was estimated at 15 K, follow-through on biofuel hopes    
• SX, dn $.0650 @ $8.9350; SF, dn $.07 @ $9.0675.  Funds: Even SB, sold 3 K SBM, & bot 8 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.83, +3; LY, $1.45
• WZ, dn $.06 @ $4.8275; WH, dn $.06 @ $4.8925.  The Funds began the week buying 2 K, bolstered by some support from oil  

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn crop is rated 55% Good/Excellent, unchanged from last week but well below 68% last year.  Corn mature is 18% vs. 51% last year and the 5-year avg. of 39%.  Corn harvest is 4% vs. 8% last year and the 5-year avg. of 7%

·       ATI Research: Updated 2019/20 U.S. corn ending stocks estimate is 2.283 bbu versus September USDA est. of 2.190

·       U.S. sorghum crop is rated 65% Good/Excellent, down 3 points versus last week but well above 53% last year

• T-storm Weather®: some light frost cannot be ruled out for corn in northern MN next week (Sep. 23-29), but no killing freezes are likely due to 1) wet soils; 2) warm soils; and 3) only marginally-cool air masses for at least two weeks

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean crop is rated 54% Good/Excellent vs. 55% last week and 67% last year.  Setting pods is 96% vs. 100% both last year and the 5-year avg.  Dropping leaves is 15% vs. 50% last year & the 5-year avg. of 38%

·       ATI Research: Updated 2019/20 U.S. soybean ending stocks est. is 0.662 bbu versus September USDA est. of 0.640

• U.S. spring wheat harvest: 76% v. 96% last year & 93% avg; U.S. winter wheat planting: 8% v. 12% for last year & avg.
• T-storm Weather®: Argentina wheat is forecast to be much drier than normal through at least late-month
• ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to continue to range from 15-20 mbu per week short-term

ENERGY

·       Down: CLX19, -$1.10 @ $61.57; EBX, -$1.12 @ $67.90; EBX-QCLX, +.08; RBX, -.0129; NGX, -.006; HOX, -.0155

·       Chicago ethanol rose $.03 on Monday to $1.39625; basis values were mostly weaker:  NYC, -$.02250 @ $.11875; Gulf, +$.0125 @ $.12125; Dallas, -$.0175 @ $.10625; Tampa, -$.0175 @ $.21625; LA, -$.0250 @ $.21375

·       Ethanol RINs were again firmer: 2018’s, +3.00 at @ 12 ½ -13; 2019’s, +1.375 @ 19 -23                                                       ​                         ​               

·  ​;     The October RBOB/October ethanol spread surged $.1573 to $.3544 as the oil sector rallied sharply

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              &nbs​p;                        

• Choice boxed beef eased 26-cents on Monday to $220.62 and is $6.33 lower versus last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $1.66. last week to $100.07/cwt and is $10.59 lower v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 32-cents on Mon. to $67.609 but is still $3.12 lower vs. a week ago  

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $44.58/cwt vs. last week’s $41.34, last month’s $40.75 & last year’s $35.81                          

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather