HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Lower: CU, -$.0450; SQ, -$.0550; WU, -$.0350; KWU, -$.0350
• What caught my eye: Corn market was sharply lower yesterday and a little more of the same this morning as ratings improve a point and weather outlook turns more favorable for the crop 
• China’s Q2 growth slows to weakest pace in 27 years—trade war toll. Asia: Mostly weaker--Nikkei, -0.69%; Shanghai, -0.16%; Hang Seng, +0.23%. EUROPE: Slightly firmer—DAX, -.03%; FTSE, +0.18%; CAC, +0.19%.  WALL STREET—Futures are mixed: DOW, -9; S&P, +1.00; NAS, +5.25.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude: +$0.20 @ $59.78; Gold:  +$3.00 @ $1,417; $ Index: +.241 @ 97.174

·       T-storm ® Weather: Heat affects the central U.S. until a cool front passes within July 22-24 and several days of seasonableness begin.  Most rain over the next 10 to 14 days is front-loaded over the next several days, which will ultimately result in near-normal totals for ~45% and ~55% of corn and soybeans, but leaves an arc from the central / southern Plains into the I-80 corridor of the Corn Belt sharply drier

• CU, dn $.0450 @ $4.3650; CZ, dn $.0425 @ $4.4275.  Funds reverse course with weather, sell 10 K
• SQ, dn $.0550 @ $8.9650; SU, dn $.06 @ $9.0175.  Funds: Sell 7 K SB, 4 K SBM, even  SBO.  Board Crush: $0.95, +3; LY, $1.99
• WU, dn $.0350 @ $5.0425; WZ, dn $.0350 @ $5.1650.  The funds also sold 10 K wheat on Monday 

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U​.S. corn crop is rated 58% Good/Excellent versus 57% last week and 72% last year.  Crop development remains very sluggish: silking is pegged at 17% compared to 59% last year & the 5-year average of 42%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2019 U.S. corn crop is 167.9 bpa versus the July USDA projection of 166.0.  U.S. corn ending stocks for 19/20 are now forecast at 1.345 bbu

• T-storm ® Weather: A system slides across Canada & sends a cool front through central U.S. July 22-24, marking the start of several days of near-normal temps; some rain is seen then, but only scattered 0.25”- 0.50” totals are expected

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean crop rated 54% Good/Excellent v. 53% last week & 69% last year.  Blooming at 22% v. 62% last year & the 5-year avg. of 49%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2019 U.S. soybean crop is 47.6 bpa versus July USDA projection of 48.5

• ATI Research: U.S. hard red spring crop estimate is up 1 mbu to 562 mbu.  U.S. winter wheat harvest is pegged at 57% compared to 72% last year and below the 5-year average of 71% 

·       T-storm ® Weather: Near -normal rain is forecast over the next seven days across the vast majority of U.S. HRS wheat

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLQ19, +$0.20 @ $59.78; EBU, +$0.13 @ $66.61; EBU-QCLQ, -.07; RBQ, -.0021; NGQ, -.033; HOQ, +.0041

·       Chicago ethanol lost $.0185 on Monday, slipping to $1.5540; basis values were mixed: NYC, -$.0015 @ $.1160; Gulf, -$.0365 @ $.0660; Dallas, +$.0085 @ $.0960; Tampa, +$.011 @ $.2060; LA, -$.0015 @ $.1860  

·       Ethanol RINs were firmer:  2018’s,+.25 @ 17 ½  -18 ½; 2019’s, +.25 @ 21 ½ - 22                                     &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                  

&m​iddot;       The August RBOB/August ethanol spread narrowed $.0107 on Monday to $.3723 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               ​;                        

• Choice boxed beef firmed 47-cents on Monday to $213.27 but is still down $4.19 compared to a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price gained $2.13 v. last week to $113.37/cwt and is $2.87 higher v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.11 higher on Monday at $71.68 and is up 64-cents vs. last week

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $37.59/cwt vs. last week’s $35.59, last month’s $41.13 & last year’s $25.40                        <​wbr>     <​/wbr>

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather