HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—Lower: CU, -$.06; SQ, -$.0575; WU, -$.0925; KWU, -$.0625. Del’y: SB: 1,232; SBM: 576; SBO: 223
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What caught my eye: Well, so much for cooler heads prevailing in the trade war . . . the Chinese government has asked its state- owned enterprises to suspend imports of U.S. agricultural products after Trump’s 10% tariff on another $300 billion in goods
· Trade uncertainty = market uncertainty = lower start. Asia: Down sharply--Nikkei, -1.741%; Shanghai, -1.62%; Hang Seng, -2.85%. EUROPE: Lower, again—DAX, -1.26%; FTSE, -1.80%; CAC, -1.75%. WALL STREET—Futures, down hard: DOW, -314; S&P, -36.50; NAS, -126.80. EXTERNALS: Oct crude: -$0.46 @ $55.21; Gold: +11.70 @ $1,469; $ Index: -.254 @ 97.820
· T-storm Weather®: Near- to below-normal temps & near- to below-normal rain are likely for most corn, soybeans, & spring wheat over next two weeks as central U.S. remains divided by heat to immediate southwest & coolness to immediate northeast. Some rains affect all areas at one point or another, but best chances generally just outside the pocket of dryness that recently developed in central Corn Belt, though some rain is expected in driest areas, & it would not take much for chances to improve with time
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CU, dn $.06 @ $3.9350; CZ, dn $.0625 @ $4.0325. Funds buy 9 K Friday, oversold & drier outlook for the ECB
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SQ, dn $.0575 @ $8.4450; SU, dn $.0625 @ $8.4950. Funds: Bot 2 K SB, 6 K SBO, even SBM. Board Crush: $1.04, +2; LY, $1.50
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WU, dn $.0925 @ $4.8150; WZ, dn $.0850 @ $4.83. Fund buying Friday totaled 5 K to close out the week
CORN/SORGHUM
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Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg U.S. corn Good/Excellent 56-58% v. 58% last week and 71% last year
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ATI Research: Delayed development of 2019 U.S. corn crop is illustrated in dough stage. The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn dough increases approx. 19% from July 28-Aug. 4 to 42%; but corn dough for 2019 as of July 28 was only at 13%
· T-storm Weather®: Widely-scattered thunderstorms dot corn producing areas across the central U.S. over today-Wed. as a cool front passes, but only produce scattered 0.20” to 0.50” rainfall totals
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 71.5 mbu needed; 25.4 last week. Milo—2.5 needed; 0.4 last week
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg U.S. soybean Good/Excellent 52-54% v. 54% last week & 67% last year
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ATI Research: Delayed development of 2019 U.S. soybean crop is illustrated in setting pods. The 5-year avg. for U.S. soybeans setting pods rises ~18% from July 28-Aug. 4 to 63%; but setting pods for 2019 on July 28 was only at 21%
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 43.8 mbu needed; 37.9 last week
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.4 mbu needed; 14.4 last week
· T-storm Weather®: Rain this week for Victoria, South Australia wheat, but drought intensifies elsewhere in E Australia
ENERGY
· Lower: CLV19, -$0.46 @ $55.21; EBV, -$0.60 @ $61.29; EBV-QCLV,-.16; RBV, -.0157; NGV, -.028; HOV, -.0158
· Chicago ethanol was $.01225 firmer on Friday at $1.46875; basis values were firmer: NYC, +$.00025 @ $.10125; Gulf, +$.00275 @ $.10125; Dallas, +$.00525 @ $.12875; Tampa, +$.00775 @ $.24125; LA, +$.00775 @ $.20125
· Ethanol RINs were off .75 with 2018’s @ 15 ½ -15; and 2019’s @ 19 ½ -20     ;
· The September RBOB/August ethanol spread gained $.0236 on Friday to settle at $.3365/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef firmed 49-cents on Friday to $214.73 and is $2.56 higher compared to a week ago
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U.S. cattle slaughter for week end Aug. 3 est. up 0.3% v. 2018 but beef production dn 1.3% due to lighter weights
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 62-cents on Fri. to $86.20 but is still up $2.98 versus last week
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.53 higher on Fri. at $84.64. August futures fell $0.525 and are $8.365 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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