HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Lower:  CU, -$.06; SU, -$.0675; WU, -$.0225; KWU, -$.0275 
• What caught my eye: USDA is at a 169.5 bpa national average corn yield; private estimates out on Friday by the more tech oriented services ranged between 153 and 163 bpa. Pro Farmer Tour will be closely watched this week

·       White House tempers trade war fears, no recession on the horizon.  ASIA: Firmer-Nikkei, +0.71%; Shanghai, +2.10%; Hang Seng, +2.17%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.91%; FTSE, +0.98%; CAC, +0.90%.  WALL STREET—Futures are higher--DOW, +242; S&P, +26.0; NAS, +268.99.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: +$0.64 @ $55.45;Gold:  -$14.30 @ $1,509; $ Index: +.033 @ 98.175

·       T-storm Weather®: Rainfall over the weekend expectedly affected much of the driest areas of the Corn Belt, and a couple more rounds of thunderstorms occur this week (especially within the southern half of the Corn Belt over Wed.-Fri.).  Some thunderstorms also follow from next weekend forward, but heavy rain is not expected.  Temperatures remain near normal over the next two weeks as sustained heat and coolness remain outside key corn and soybean areas

• CU, dn $.06 @ $3.65; CZ, dn $.06 @ $3.7475.  The funds bought 5 K on Friday    
• SU, dn $.0675 @ $8.6050; SX, dn $.0675 @ $8.73  Funds: Bought 4 SB, 2 K SBM, even SBO.  Board Crush: $1.02, -2; LY, $1.55
• WU, dn $.0225 @ $4.6850; WZ, dn $.0350 @ $4.74.  The fund went home even in Friday’s trading               

CORN/SORGHUM

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• Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg U.S. corn Good/Excellent 56-58% v. 57% last week and 68% last year
• T-storm Weather®: Over the next five days, scattered 0.50” to 1.50” rainfall totals affect corn across the southern third to half of the U.S. Corn Belt, while widely-scattered 0.25” to 0.50” totals occur to the north.  
• Updated NWS forecast for month of September is for above to much above normal rain across the Northern Plains, as well as all of Minnesota and Nebraska.  Below to much below normal temps also impact the Northern Plains

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 101.2 mbu needed; 27.7 last week.  Milo—2.9 needed; 3.3 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg U.S. soybean Good/Excellent 53-55% v. 54% last week & 65% last year
• T-storm Weather®: Over the next five days, scattered 0.50” to 1.50” rainfall totals affect soybeans across the southern third to half of the U.S. Corn Belt, while widely-scattered 0.25” to 0.50” totals occur to the north.  

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 48.3 mbu needed; 34.7 last week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.9 mbu needed; 25.3 last week

·       T-storm Weather: Drought intensifies near-term for wheat in Queensland & northern New South Wales in Australia

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLV19, +$0.64 @ $55.45; EBV, +$0.64 @ $59.28; EBV-QCLV, +.020;RBV, +.0138; NGV, -.034; HOV, +.0141

·       Chicago ethanol recovered Thursday’s loss & more, up $.0395 to $1.3120; basis values were mostly weaker: NYC, +$.0305 @ $.1230; Gulf, -$.0145 @ $.093; Dallas, -$.0095 @ $.1480; Tampa, -$.0195 @ $.248; LA, -$.0085 @ $.2380

·       Ethanol RINs were lower: 2018’s off $.50 @ 2 ½- 4 and 2019’s down $.6250 @ 10 ¾ -11                                              &nbs​p;                        ​;               

·  &nb​sp;    The September RBOB/September ethanol spread narrowed $.0146 to $.3538/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   ​;                    

• Choice boxed beef was $2.57 higher on Friday at $238.69 and is up $22.32 compared to a week ago
• Limited cash castle sales occurred on Fri. in Nebraska at $106 per cwt--generally $7 per cwt lower than the prior week

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.97 on Fri. to $84.88 and is down $3.71 versus the previous week  

·       CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.32 on Fri. to $79.02.  October futures plummeted $3.00 & are $17.02 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather