HIGHLIGHTS
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USDA Supply/Demand (WASDE) report at 11:00 am CDT
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TRENDS—Lower: CU, +$.0075; SU, +$.05; WU, +$.01; KWU, -$.0126. Del’y: SB: 966; SBM: 185 SBO: 99
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What caught my eye: Just wondering which side of the new crop corn balance sheet will bear the brunt of today’s report . . . production or demand as export competition looks formidable
· Markets fearful trade dispute could lead U.S./global recession. Asia: Mixed--Nikkei, Closed Shanghai, +1.45%; Hang Seng, -0.44%. EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, +0.03%; FTSE, -0.27%; CAC, -0.28%. WALL STREET—Futures are down, again: DOW, -147; S&P, -16.50; NAS, -45.00. EXTERNALS: Oct crude: -$0.73 @ $53.64; Gold: +$8.20 @ $1,517; $ Index: +.007 @ 97.56
· T-storm Weather®: Temps fluctuate between cool & hot periods over next two weeks, averaging near to slightly warmer than normal. Near-normal rain of 1.00”-2.00” remains probable in most areas, primarily from a swath of significant rain within parts of central/northern Plains & northern half of Corn Belt the next 36 hours, & then scattered thunderstorms next weekend forward
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CU, dn $.03 @ $4.0725; CZ, dn $.0275 @ $4.15. The funds concluded Friday’s trading activity even
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SU, dn $.04 @ $8.6975; SX, dn $.0550 @ $8.7350. Funds: Bot 6 4 SB, 2 K SBM, 3 K SBO. Board Crush: $1.04, +1; LY, $1.66
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WU, dn $.0425 @ $4.9525; WZ, dn $.0425 @ $4.9725. The Funds were also even in SRW trading Friday
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for 2019 U.S. corn crop: 13.193 bbu (range: 12.723-13.550) and 13.875 in July
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USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn carryout--18/19, 2.392 bbu (2.340 in July); 19/20, 1.620 (2.010)
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Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg U.S. corn Good/Excellent 55-57% v. 57% last week and 70% last year
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ATI Research: Delayed development of 2019 U.S. corn crop is illustrated in dough stage. The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn dough increases approx. 19% from Aug. 4-11 to 61%; but corn dough for 2019 as of Aug. 4 was only at 23%
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T-storm Weather®: Swath of significant rain (0.50”-1.50”) occurs today within key U.S. corn areas; esp. near I-80
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for 2019 U.S. soybean crop: 3.800 bbu (range: 3.633-3.974) and 3.845 in July
· USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess U.S. soybean carryout--18/98, 1.065 bbu (1.050 in July); 19/20, 0.821 (0.795)
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Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg U.S. soybean Good/Excellent 52-54% v. 54% last week & 66% last year
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ATI Research: 5-year avg. soybeans setting pods +13% to 76% as of Aug. 11; but ‘19 setting pods Aug. 4 was only 37%
· USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for 2019 U.S. all wheat crop: 1.925bbu (range: 1.873-1.990) and 1.921 in July
· USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. all wheat carryout--19/20, 0.999 bbu (range: 0.918-1.072):
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLV19, -$0.73 @ $53.64; EBV, -$0.49 @ $58.04; EBV-QCLV, +.23; RBV,-.0155; NGV, +.009; HOV, -.0125
· Chicago ethanol was $.00375 higher at $1.4750; basis values were firmer: NYC, +$.00125 @ $.10750; Gulf, +$.0050 @ $.09750; Dallas, +$.00125 @ $.12250; Tampa, +$.00225 @ $.24850; LA, +$.00625 @ $.2025
· Ethanol RINs were sharply lower/wide range on Friday: 2018’s down 5.25 @ 6 -15 and 2019’s 4.50 lower @ 11 -20    
· The September RBOB/September ethanol spread gained $.0252 on Friday to close at $.2320/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef fell 51-cents on Friday to $216.37 but is still $1.64 higher versus last week
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U.S. cattle slaughter for week end Aug. 10 est. down 0.3% v. 2018 but beef production dn 1.6% due to lighter weights
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 83-cents on Fri. to $88.59 and is $2.39 higher versus a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.52 on Fri. to $82.33. August futures firmed $1.675 but are still $3.305 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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