HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—Lower: CU, -$.03; SQ, -$.0050; WU, -$.0225; KWU, -$.0175
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What caught my eye: Trade expecting a “slight” decline in harvested corn acres in Thursday’s WASDE, dropping from 83.6 to an implied average of 81.9 million; harvested bean acres up slightly versus June Acreage Report, 79.55 from 79.27 million
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Still waiting on Fed Chair’s comments, markets muddle lower. Asia: Mostly Lower--Nikkei, -0.15%; Shanghai, -0.44%; Hang Seng, +0.31%. EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.51%; FTSE, -0.26%; CAC, -0.11%. WALL STREET—Futures are lower-DOW, -71; S&P, -8.50; NAS, -28.00. EXTERNALS: Aug crude: +$1.37 @ $58.14; Gold: -$2.90 @ $1,398; $ Index: -.087 @ 97.402
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T-storm ® Weather: Beyond some thunderstorms through today as a cool front passes, the most likely scenario is for very warm & hot weather to affect a wide area from Fri.-Sat. forward as upper-level high pressure bounces within the central U.S. Occasional thunderstorms affect northern areas as energy rides edge of heat, but much less-so to the south as a tropical system: 1) disrupts an influx of low -level winds for thunderstorms into the central U.S., & 2) diminishes somewhere in the southern U.S. next week
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CU, dn $.03 @ $4.2950; CZ, dn $.0325 @ $4.34. Heavy fund selling Tuesday, estimated at 10 K
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SQ, dn $.0050 @ $8.8550; SU, dn $.0050 @ $8.9125 Funds: Bot 5 K SB, 4 K SBM, Even K SBO. Board Crush: $1.01, +1; LY, $1.94
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WU, dn $.0225 @ $5.0050; WZ, dn $.0225 @ $5.1325. The funds continued selling, with 7 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
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T-storm ® Weather: Substantial rain occurs today in ND with scattered 0.25”-0.50” totals elsewhere. Temperatures fall by ~10°F after a cool front passes to leave most areas slightly to moderately cooler than normal through Thursday
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ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn export range declines to 25-30 mbu per week with a bias towards the lower end
· Consultant: Argentina corn production est. was unch this week at 49.0 MMT with a neutral bias; harvest at 49.3%
· Ethanol margins: $0.00 per gallon—dn vs. $0.10 last week and well below $0.36 in 2018. EIA report at 9:30 am CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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T-storm ® Weather: Substantial rain occurs today in ND with scattered 0.25”-0.50” totals elsewhere. Temperatures fall by ~10°F after a cool front passes to leave most areas slightly to moderately cooler than normal through Thursday
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ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports remains in the 20-30 mbu per week range
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T-storm ® Weather: Above-normal rainfall occurs over the next 14 days across most U.S. hard red spring wheat
· ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports is increased to 16-21 mbu per week range
ENERGY
· Higher: CLQ19, +$1.37 @ $59.20; EBU, +$1.25 @ $65.40; EBU-QCLQ, -.12;RBQ, +.0289; NGQ, +.009; HOQ, +.0404
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -3.1 (-8.1); Gasoline, -1.3 (-0.3); Distillates, +0.7 (+3.7). Estimates for ethanol production avg. 1.072 mbpd (range: 1.070-1.075). Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 22.951 mb (range 22.759-23.094)
· Chicago ethanol fell $.0365 yesterday to $1.4710; basis values were mixed: NYC, -$.01850 @ $.1140; Gulf, +$.01150 @ $.1115; Dallas, -$.0085 @ $.0990; Tampa, +$.0015 @ $.2190; LA, -$.01850 @ $.2540
· Ethanol RINs were weaker: 2018’s, -0.55 @ 17 -18; 2019’s, -1.00 @ 20 ¾- 21 ¼   ;
· The August RBOB/August ethanol spread widened $.0626 to $.4429 yesterday; trading $.4874 this morning
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
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Choice boxed beef plummeted $2.73 on Tuesday to $214.73 and is down $5.74 compared to a week ago
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Steep drop in corn futures on Tue. helped boost August feeder cattle futures to highest settlement price since May 24
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $1.26 on Tuesday to $72.30 and is up 82-cents versus last week
· CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.67 on Tue. at $71.26. July futures increased $1.30 and are now $0.115 above the index  
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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