HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Lower: CU, -$.0275; SU, -$.0475; WU, -$.0475; KWU, -$.0175.  Del’y: SBM, 24; SBO, 0

·       What caught my eye:   Iowa corn ratings declined 4 points last week and three the previous week.  Makes one wonder how such a significant drop in the U.S. largest producing state (18-19%) can still result in a 180+ national average yield?   

·       U.S. stocks futures are “wavering” this morning, market weighs generally better than expected earnings vs # of virus cases

• Asia—Higher:  Nikkei, +1.70%; Shanghai, +0.11%; Hang Seng, +2.00%;
• EUROPE: Mostly easier—DAX, -0.44%; FTSE, -.05%; CAC, +0.15%. 
• WALL STREET: Futures, lower --DOW, -53; S&P, -10.25; NAS, -43.25
• EXTERNALS: Oct crude, -$0.68 @ $40.63; Gold: +$6.60 @ $1,993; Sep $ Index, -.132 @ 93.375

·       T-storm Weather®: unseasonable coolness continues over the next few days across the U.S. Corn Belt, then slowly breaks from west to east over Wed.-Fri.  Warming triggers some showers and thunderstorms in the Plains and western Corn Belt over Wed.-Fri., but a better-organized thunderstorm cluster or two wait until the weekend when a couple waves of energy and a weak cool front pass

• CU, dn $.0275 @ $3.1475; CZ, -$.0250 @ $3.26.  The funds were again buyers of 2 K on Monday                                     
• SU, dn $.0475 @ $8.8825; SX, dn $.0525 @ $8.91.  Funds: Bot 2 SB, 7 SBO, sold 3 SBMO.  Board crush: $0.87 (U/U), +8; LY, $1.04
• WU, dn $.0475 @ $5.1625; WZ, dn $.0450 @ $5.2475.  Funds sold 8 K on a Russian crop estimate 3 MMT above the last USDA              

CORN/SORGHUM

·&n​bsp;      USDA estimates U.S. corn silking as of Aug. 2 at 92% vs. 72% last year and the 5-year avg. of 87%; updated corn crop conditions peg combined Good/Excellent rating at 72%, which is unchanged versus last week but above 57% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: temps range from above-normal west to near-normal east over Aug. 10-16 across the U.S, Corn Belt.  We are forecasting near-normal rainfall totals of 0.50" to 1.50" in / near the Corn Belt and Delta next week

·       ATI Research: U.S. ending stocks of corn for 20/21 pegged at 2.723 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 2.648 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: corn in much of E.U. & Ukraine stay much drier than normal through mid-month, with heat in E.U.

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       US soybeans setting pods: 59% v. 32% last year, 5-year avg. 54%; Good/Excellent, 73% v. 72% last week, 54% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: temps range from above-normal west to near-normal east over Aug. 10-16 across the U.S, Corn Belt.  We are forecasting near-normal rainfall totals of 0.50" to 1.50" in / near the Corn Belt and Delta next week

·       ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 20/21 pegged at 0.473 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 0.425 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: heavy rains in recent days broke dryness on spring wheat in Russia’s South and Volga Districts

·       ATI Research: adjusting for results from ATI HRS Crop Tour, U.S. HRS wheat crop is up 2 mbu v. last week at 562 mbu

ENERGY

·       Weaker:  CLV20, -$0.68 @ $40.63; EBV, -$0.68 @ $43.48; EBV-QCLV, +0.01; RBV, -.0096; NGV, +.044; HOV, -.0154

·       Chicago ethanol slipped $.00625 yesterday to $1.19; basis, mostly firm: NYC, +$.03125 @ +$.10; Gulf, +$.00125 @ +$.09; Dallas, +$.00625 @ +$.0950; Tampa, +$.00125 @ +$.2150; LA, -$.00875 @ +$.21

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +.625 @ 45 -46 ½ 2020’s: +.25 @ 47 ½ -48                                  ​                        &​nbsp;                                                 &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                 

·       The Aug RBOB/August ethanol spread is trading -$.0169 lower at $.03620/gallon, premium RBOB

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                       ​;                

• Choice boxed beef was $1.40 higher on Monday at $204.66, and is up $2.11 versus a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $1.42 v. last week at $98.66/cwt, but is dn $15.16 v. last year
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.44 on Mon. to $66.11, but is still $4.40 lower versus last week
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $31.97/cwt vs. last week’s $32.74, last month’s $30.23 & last year’s $36.23

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®