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TRENDS Lower CU, Down 2, SQ, Unchanged, WU, Unchanged

July 11, 2019 06:56 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Lower: CU, -$.0125; SQ, -$.0075; WU, -$.0125; KWU, -$.01.  USDA Supply/Demand (WASDE) report at 11:00 am CDT          
  • What caught my eye: Nothing really strikes the fancy this morning and wondering what, if anything, the USDA will do with corn and bean acres today.  History would say harvested acreage for both are likely to change; but not the planted number
  • Fed buy notes “broad global weakness”, supports easy money case. Asia: Firm--Nikkei, +0.51%; Shanghai, +0.08%; Hang Seng, +0.81%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.11%; FTSE, +0.16%; CAC, +0.23%.  WALL STREET—Futures, up: DOW, +64; S&P, +7.00; NAS, -24.75.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude: +$0.37 @ $60.80Gold:  +$11.00 @ $1,424$ Index-.161 @ 96.943
  • T-storm ® Weather: Temperatures average warmer to much-warmer than normal over the next 10 to 14 days as upper-level high pressure bounces within the central U.S.  Best rainfall generally focus on northern areas, though substantial totals affect parts of the Delta (especially near New Orleans) from a tropical storm this weekend.  A low chance exists for the remnant circulation to produce a swath of rain within part of the southeast half of the Corn Belt Tue.-Wed.
  • CU, dn $.0125 @ $4.3375; CZ, dn $.0225 @ $4.3725.  The funds were buyers of 4 K ahead of today’s WASDE release 
  • SQ, dn $.0075 @ $8.9375; SU, dn $.0075 @ $8.9950.  Funds: Bot 5 K SB, 2 K SBM, Even 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.95, -6; LY, $2.07
  • WU, dn $.0125 @ $5.0350; WZ, dn $.0125 @ $5.1550.  Fund trading on Wednesday was estimated at “even”

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·      &nbs​p;USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess 18/19 U.S. corn carryout, 2.179 bbu; avg. guess 19/20, 1.642 bbu

  • WASDE: Avg. guess 2019 U.S. corn crop, 13.511 bbu (range 12.566-13.880); avg. yield est., 164.6 bpa (162.0-167.0)

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 6-16 mbu for 18/19 corn

  • T-storm ® Weather: Temps quickly warm from west to east Fri.-Sat. for central U.S. as hot upper-level high pressure forms in the Plains.  Best rain chances near-term along northern periphery of the high; drier with southward extent
  • Ethanol grind: Total of 1,047,000 barrels/day for week end July 5—dn 34 thou v. prior week but up 1.4% versus 2018

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess 18/19 U.S. soybean carryout, 1.038 bbu; avg. guess 19/20, 0.812 bbu

  • USDA WASDE report: Avg. guess 2019 U.S. soybean crop, 3.850 bbu (3.700-4.015); avg. yield est., 48.4 bpa (47.0-50.0)

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 7-15 mbu for 18/19 soybeans; soymeal, 50-200 K MT; soyoil, 5-25 K MT 

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess 19/20 U.S. all wheat carryout, 1.028 bbu (range 0.925-1.092)

  • USDA Crop Production report: Avg. guess 2019 U.S. Other Spring wheat prod. is 0.581 bbu (range 0.550-0.625)

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 9-20 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLQ19, +$0.37 @ $60.80; EBU, +$0.38 @ $67.39; EBU-QCLQ+.01;RBQ, +.0215; NGQ, +.020HOQ, +.0205

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0140 higher at $1.4850; basis values were mostly lower: NYC, -$.0040 @ $.11; Gulf, +$.0065 @ $.1050; Dallas, +$.0010 @ $.10; Tampa, -$.0090 @ $.21; LA, -$.0240 @ $.23  

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker:  2018’s, -0.6250 @ 16 ½ -17 ¼; 2019’s, -0.3750 @ 20 ½ - 20 ¾                                                               &nb​sp;                 

· &​nbsp;     The August RBOB/August ethanol spread was again wider, out $.0712 to $.5002 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   &​nbsp;                   

  • Choice boxed beef eased 31-cents on Wednesday to $214.42 and is $4.83 lower versus last week
  • Limited cash cattle has occurred this week; asking prices are $184 plus in the North and $114 in the South

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.97 on Wed. to $70.33 and is 12-cents lower vs. a  week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index was $0.49 lower on Wed. at $70.77.  July futures firmed $0.375 & are $0.98 above the index                            ​

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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