HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Lower:  CU, -$.0025; SU, -$.0725; WU, -$.0050; KWU, -$.01
• What caught my eye: China’s weekly crush data is becoming a bit worrisome as after running an average of 4 to 5% ABOVE year ago levels, it has taken a distinct down-turn the past 3 months, averaging nearly 10% LESS.  ASF effects coming home to roost?

·       10 & 2 Yield curve inverts further, trade worries continue.  ASIA: Higher-Nikkei, +0.96%; Shanghai, +1.35%; Hang Seng, -0.06%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, +0.223%; FTSE, -0.37%; CAC, +0.05%.  WALL STREET—Futures are trying to open higher-- DOW, +5; S&P, +0.75; NAS, +5.25.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: +$0.64 @ $54.27; Gold:  +$2.80 @ $1,540; $ Index: -.016 @ 97.93

·       T-storm Weather®: Precipitation will be favorable for much of the Midwest, Delta and Southeastern U.S. over the next 10 days to 2 weeks and likely ensuring a positive finish to the corn and soybean crops. Midwest temperatures are forecast to be near to below normal the first week of September. The Far West will be hotter than normal and, drier than usual during the upcoming two week period. As an aside, NW Russia will be frost/freezes this week with some crop damage possible

• CU, dn $.0025 @ $3.5825; CZ, dn $.0025 @ $3.68.  The funds began the week buying 2 K      
• SU, dn $.0725 @ $8.4650; SX, dn $.0675 @ $8.6050.  Funds: Bought 6 K SB, 3 K SBM, even SBO.  Board Crush: $1.02, -4; LY, $1.51
• WU, dn $.0050 @ $4.7250; WZ, dn $.0075 @ $4.7450.  The funds were buyers of 1 K on Monday               

    CORN/SORGHUM

• T-storm Weather®: Some warming occurs around Sep. 3-4, but does not last as another cool front quickly passes & reverts temps to near- or below-normal levels in 10-14 days.  There is no risk of a killing freeze over next two weeks

·       U.S. corn crop is rated 57% Good/Excellent versus 56% last week but below 68% last year.  Dough is 71% vs. 91% last year and the 5-year average of 87%.  Dent is 27 vs. 59% last year and the 5-year average of 46%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2019 U.S. corn crop is 167.8 bpa versus August USDA projection of 169.5

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• T-storm Weather®: Some warming occurs around Sep. 3-4, but does not last as another cool front quickly passes & reverts temps to near- or below-normal levels in 10-14 days.  There is no risk of a killing freeze over next two weeks

·       U.S. soybean crop is rated 55% Good/Excellent versus 53% last week and 66% last year.  Blooming: 94% vs. 100% last year and the avg. of 99%; Setting Pods: 79% vs. 94% last year & the 5-year avg of 91% 

• T-storm Weather®: 56% of Australia wheat production was drier than normal over the last 90 days, of which 89% is from eastern areas and 2% from Western Australia

·       ATI Research: U.S. wheat exports are forecast at 17-23 mbu per week over the near-term

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLV19, +$0.63 @ $54.27; EBV, +$0.62 @ $59.32; EBV-QCLV, unch; RBV,+.0189; NGV, -.015; HOV, +.0144

·       Chicago ethanol was steady at $1.3250; basis values were mixed: NYC, +$.00750 @ $.1325; Gulf, +$.0050 @ $.0850; Dallas, +$.01 @ $.1050; Tampa, -$.01 @ $.1850; LA, -$.01 @ $.2000

·       Ethanol RINs were lower with 2018’s off 3.00 at @ 5-7 and 2019’s 1.75 lower @ 13 ½ -14 ½                                  &n​bsp;                                                &nb​sp;     

·       The September RBOB/September ethanol spread gained $.0036 Monday and closed at $.3294/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                          ​;             

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• Choice boxed beef gained $0.54 on Monday to $238.06 and is $1.07 lower versus the previous week   
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price rose $0.44 Monday to $107.12/cwt and is $1.90 lower v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.02 on Mon. to $77.65 and is $5.64 lower compared to week ago 

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $41.47/cwt vs. last week’s $42.44, last month’s $42.99 & last year’s $21.94

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather