HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Lower: CU, -$.0150; SQ, -$.0175; WU, -$.0375; KWU, -$.0225
• What caught my eye: Lot of bearish, pre-report talk on the 19/20 corn export outlook; yet, the USDA left its U.S. estimate unchanged  at 2.15 bbu at the same time combined old/new unshipped sales are approaching a 15-year low
• Exuberance from possible Fed rate cut continues; overshadows Trump’s China trade tweet. Asia: Up--Nikkei, +0.20%; Shanghai, +0.44%; Hang Seng, +0.14%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, +unch; FTSE, +0.26%; CAC, +0.63%. WALL STREET—Futures, higher: DOW, +86; S&P, +7.00; NAS, +24.00. EXTERNALS: Aug crude: +$0.18 @ $60.38; Gold:  +$1.80 @ $1,409; $ Index:-.074 @ 96.976
• T-storm ® Weather: Upper-level high pressure floats near the central U.S. for at least 7 to 10 days, producing slightly above-normal highs in the mid-80s to mid-90s and much above-normal lows in the 70s, leaving a wide area substantially warmer than normal over the next two weeks by 4°F to 8°F.  Near-normal rainfall over the next two weeks in northern areas contrasts with above-normal totals in the Delta, and drier than normal weather in an arc from the central / southern Plains into the Corn Belt 
• CU, dn $.0150 @ $4.4275; CZ, dn $.0175 @ $4.4625.  Well, so much for a bearish S&D, funds buy 10 K  
• SQ, dn $.0175 @ $8.9725; SU, dn $.0225 @ $9.0275.  Funds: Bot 3 K SB, 2 K SBM, Even SBO.  Board Crush: $0.98, +3; LY, $2.05
• WU, dn $.0375 @ $5.1775; WZ, dn $.0425 @ $5.2850.  The funds also bot 10 K on some bullish, key exporter crop reductions

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Unshipped 18/19 U.S. corn export sales of 212 mbu are dn 53% vs. last year’s 454 mbu (a record for this time of year)

·       ATI Research: USDA WASDE report confirmed more export competition (another 2.0 MMT) coming out of South America from record crops in Brazil & Argentina; plus, Ukraine’s new-crop corn exports were also boosted 1.0 MMT 

·       T-storm Weather: Some thunderstorms dot the northern third to half of central U.S. over the next week, producing scattered 0.50”-1.00” totals; heavy rainfall of 2.00”-8.00” affects the Delta Sat.-Mon. as a tropical storm moves inland

·       December 2019 corn futures on Thu. closed at $4.48; one year ago, December 2018 corn futures settled at $3.59 ¼

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: New crop U.S. soybean exports lowered 75 mbu on greater competition from South America in Sep-Feb

·       T-storm Weather: Some thunderstorms dot the northern third to half of central U.S. over the next week, producing scattered 0.50”-1.00” totals; heavy rainfall of 2.00”-8.00” affects the Delta Sat.-Mon. as a tropical storm moves inland

·       USDA Crop Production report increases U.S. HRW wheat output 10 mbu to 804 mbu due to higher yields across the Central Plains.  First survey-based estimate of 2019 HRS production is 542 mbu; ATI model is 561 mbu

·       T-storm Weather: Near-normal rainfall is forecast over the next 14 days for most U.S. hard red spring wheat

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLQ19, +$0.18 @ $60.38; EBU, +$0.38 @ $66.90; EBU-QCLQ, +.24;RBQ, -.0038; NGQ, -.012; HOQ, -.0019

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0040 higher Thursday at $1.4850; basis values were again mostly lower: NYC, -$.01 @ $.10; Gulf, unch @ $.1050; Dallas, -$.01 @ $.09; Tampa, -$.01 @ $.20; LA, -$.0050 @ $.2250  

·       Ethanol RINs were unch:  2018’s, @ 16 ½ -17 ¼; 2019’s,  @ 20 ½ - 21                             &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                          

·       The August RBOB/August ethanol spread shed $.0597, to close at $.4405 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                        &​nbsp; 

• Choice boxed beef was 65-cents lower on Thursday at $213.77 and is down $5.48 compared to a week ago
• Cash cattle trading remained quiet on Thursday; asking prices are $184 plus in the North and $113 in the South

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 50-cents on Thu. to $70.83 and is 38-cents higher vs. last week

·       CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.12 on Thursday to $70.65.  July futures eased $0.150 but are still $0.95 above the index                         <​wbr>   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather