HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—Lower: CN, -$.03; SN, -$.0425; WN, -$.0175; KWN, -$.01
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What caught my eye: USDA’s 10 bpa drop in corn yield to 166 was a surprise; usually they are not that aggressive. Also noted 75 mbu drop in old crop sb export forecast to 1.7 bbu, despite record unshipped sales of 425 million & inspection pace picking up
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Trump: Beijing must agree to 5 major trade points or, no deal. Asia: Lower--Nikkei, -0.35%; Shanghai, -0.56%; Hang Seng, -1.73%. EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.52%; FTSE, -0.64%; CAC, -0.65%. WALL STREET—Futures are lower--DOW,-73; S&P, -9; NAS, -36.75. EXTERNALS: Aug crude: -$1.41 @ $52.11; Gold: +$8.40 @ $1,340; $ Index: -.014 @ 96.672
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T-storm Weather: Cool and wet weather generally dominate the central U.S. over the next two weeks, including drier and wetter areas. In particular, unseasonable coolness eases Fri.-Sat. in advance of a system and cold front that quickly turn all areas cool for next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms affect the Corn Belt and southern Plains over the next few days, after which a substantial event affects a wide area Sat.-Mon. (wettest in the southern Corn Belt)
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CN, dn $.03 @ $4.2475; CU, dn $.0325 @ $4.33. Bullish corn S&D drives Funds to buy 25 K
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SN, dn $.0425 @ $8.55; SQ, dn $.04 @ $8.6225. Funds: Bought 1 SB, 1 SBM, sold 2 SBO. Board Crush: $1.32, +2; LY, $1.55
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WN, dn $.0175 @ $5.1625; WU, dn $.01750 @ $5.1950. Corn leads, funds buy 8 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA Supply/Demand report pegs 2019 U.S. corn crop at 13.680 bbu vs. avg. trade guess of 14.040 bbu. Planted acreage lowered 3.0 mil to 89.8, but USDA surprised the trade with corn yield est. of 166.0 bpa v. avg. guess of 171.1
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T-storm Weather: Over June 15-17, increased rain occurs; 0.20”-0.50” across northern Plains & northwest third of Corn Belt; 0.50”-1.00” in the central & southern Plains; & 1.00”-2.00” across the southeast third of the Corn Belt
· Ethanol margins: $0.04 per gallon—dn vs. $0.09 last week and well below $0.32 in 2018. EIA report at 9:30 am CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA: 18/19 U.S. soybean carryout, 1.070 bbu (avg. trade guess 1.012); 19/20 carryout, 1.045 bbu (avg. guess 0.990)
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T-storm Weather: Over June 15-17, increased rain occurs; 0.20”-0.50” across northern Plains & northwest third of Corn Belt; 0.50”-1.00” in the central & southern Plains; & 1.00”-2.00” across the southeast third of the Corn Belt
· USDA increases Russia & Ukraine wheat production estimates by 1.0 MMT; export forecasts up 1.0 & 0.5, respectively
· T-storm Weather: More rain would be ideal for U.S. HRS wheat as 75% was drier than normal over the last 14 days
ENERGY
· Up: CLQ19, -$1.41 @ $52.11; EBQ, -$1.52 @ $60.77; EBQ-QCLQ, -.10; RBQ, -.0321; NGQ, -.009; HOQ, -.0259
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -0.6 (+4.9); Gasoline, +0.5 (+0.8); Distillates, +1.0 (-3.5). Estimates for ethanol production avg. 1.053 mbpd (range: 1.035-1.065). Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 22.438 mb (range 22.000-22.693)
· Chicago ethanol gained $.01675 Tuesday to $1.4875/gallon; basis values lower: New York, +$.01075 @ $.1650; Gulf, -$.00175 @ $.0950; Dallas, -$.01675 @ $.1025; Tampa, -$.01175 @ $.2025; LA, -$.01675 @ $.1125
· Ethanol RINs were again firmer: 2018’s, +.3750 @ 10 ½ -11 ½; 2019’s, +.3750 @ 14 ¾ - 1 ¼    
· The July RBOB/July ethanol spread eased $.0160 Tuesday to +$.2413/galyesterday; trading $.2074 this morning
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef was 73-cents higher on Tuesday at $222.39 but is still down 61-cents compared to a week ago
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August live cattle futures on Tuesday closed at $106.825, the highest settlement price for the contract since May 29
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 74-cents on Tue. to $82.25 but is unchanged versus last week
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.29 lower on Tue. at $79.66. June futures eased $0.20 and are $0.585 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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