HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Lower: CN, $.0550; SN, +$.02; WN, -$.0725; KWN, -$.0625 
• What caught my eye: Much market and apparently, wire service confusion over the possible details of the expected Trade Aid Package soon to be released by Washington—with the former perhaps saying incorrectly, it would result in more bean acres
• A weak U.S. retail sales report has equities wavering this morning.  Asia: Mostly higher--Nikkei, +0.05%; Shanghai, -0.49%; Hang Seng, +0.18%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.50%; FTSE, +0.53%; CAC, +0.24%.  WALL STREET—Futures are mixed--DOW, +4; S&P, -0.75;NAS, -7.00.  EXTERNALS: July crude: -$0.56 @ $62.57; Gold:  +$0.40@ $1,274; $ Index: NA
• T-storm Weather: The central U.S. will remain sharply divided by unseasonable coolness northwest and mildness southeast over the next 10 days.  Large- and small-scale systems ride the gradient to trigger t-storms in varying areas each day through then, producing 2.50” to 5.00” across much of the northwest two-thirds of the central U.S. and 1.50” to 3.50” elsewhere.  Scattered T-storms will continue to move across the Central U.S. into early June
• CN, dn $.0550 @ $3.8875; CU, dn $.05 @ $3.9775.  Additional fund buying on planting worries, estimated at 15 K          
• SN, up $.02 @ $8.24; SQ, up $.02 @ $8.3075.  Funds: Sold- 5 SB, 3 SBM, 5 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.25, 0; LY, $1.54
• WN, dn $.0725 @ $4.7150; WU, dn $.0725 @ $4.7875.  The funds sold 2 K on Tuesday 

 

CORN/SORGHUM

• ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn planting progress increases approx. 10% from May 19-26 to 90%
• Argentina and Brazil corn estimates unchanged at 49.0 and 57.0 million tonnees—Consultant
• Ethanol margins fall $.13 cents TW to $.02 as corn prices surge the equivalent of $.16 per gallon—EIA report 9:30 CDT
• T-storm Weather:  heavy rains the next week to extend from SE KS/S NE through N MO/All of IA/S MN into WI and much of MI as well as northern growing areas of IL, IN and OH

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• “Average” soybean planting progress between May 19^th-May 26^th the past 5 years is approximately 19%, 47 to 66%
• Trump readies new round of Trade War Aid—said to be on the order of $2/bushel to soybean producers; $.63 for wheat growers and 4 cents per bushel on corn; total package could exceed $15 billion—no specifics
• Occasional rains and cools is the forecast for U.S. spring wheat areas over the next 10 days
• ATI Research: As a % of the USDA’s May forecast, YTD exports are just 69% of the forecast—a 30-year low and should point to at least a  20 mbu reduction in the June estimate

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLN19, -$0.56 @ $62.57; EBN, -0.41 @ $71.77; EBN-QCLN, +.15; RBN, -.0097; NGN, +.005; HON, -.0188

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -1.4 (+2.4); Gasoline, -0.9 (+0.350); Distillates, -0.2 (-0.237).  Estimates for ethanol production for not available from the wire services

·       Chicago ethanol was $.01625 higher Tuesday at $1.3925; basis values were again mixed: New York, -$.00625 @ $.1075; Gulf, -$.00875 @ $.06250; Dallas, -$.00125 @ $.06250; Tampa, +$.00375 @ $.1775; LA, +$.025 @ $.2275  

·       Ethanol RINs were lower:  2018’s, -.625 @ 8 ¾ -0; 2019’s, -.125 @ 13 ¾ -14                                           &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol spread was $.0026 weaker Tuesday at+$.6273/gal; trading $.6196 this morning       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  &n​bsp;                    

• Choice boxed beef fell $1.87 on Tuesday to $219.58 and is down 54-cents versus last week 
• June live cattle futures on May 21 closed at $110.850, which is $1.350 higher compared to May 14

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $0.67 on Tuesday to $85.80 and is $1.17 lower versus a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index was down $.180 Tuesday at $84.37.  June futures lost $1.650 and are $5.730 above the index 

Sources: Bloombeg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather