HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—Lower: CN, -$.0375; SN, -$.0525; WN, -$.0625; KWN, -$.10. USDA Supply/Demand (WASDE) report at 11:00 am CDT
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What caught my eye: New crop production obviously in focus but note average trade corn stocks guess calls for a 54 mbu boost to old crop ending stocks. 15.8 million acres of corn still to plant, 3.0 in IL and 1.8 in both OH and IN
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Markets ignore White House threats for more tariffs on China, up sharply. Asia: Higher--Nikkei, +0.33%; Shanghai, +2.58%; Hang Seng, +0.76%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +1.31%; FTSE, +0.48%; CAC, +0.78%. WALL STREET—Futures are again higher--DOW, +116; S&P, +13.50; NAS, +47.00. EXTERNALS: Aug crude: +$0.44 @ $53.92; Gold: -$3.20 @ $1,326; $ Index: -.001 @ 96.75
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T-storm Weather: Unseasonably cool surface-level high pressure leaves a wide area sharply cooler than normal by 6°F to 12°F through Thu.-Fri. as maximums hold in the 60s-70s & minimums dip to the 40s-50s. A potent but humidity-starved system triggers scattered showers & thunderstorms across the eastern Dakotas and Corn Belt today-Wed., producing 0.10” to 0.30” in most areas, except for higher totals of 0.25” to 0.75” in / near WI, southern MN, & the northeast half of IA; mainly dry elsewhere
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CN, dn $.0375 @ $4.12; CU, dn $.05 @ $4.2075. The funds began the week trading even
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SN, dn $.0525 @ $8.5325; SQ, dn $.0525 @ $8.60. Funds: Bought 2 SB,38 SBM, 1 SBO. Board Crush: $1.30, -2; LY, $1.55
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WN, dn $.0625 @ $5.0125; WU, dn $.0650 @ $5.0525. The funds bought 3 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· U.S. corn planting is 83% vs. 99% last year; 2019 crop is rated 59% Good/Excellent v. 77% for the 2018 crop last year
· USDA WASDE at 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade guess 18/19 U.S. corn carryout, 2.149 bbu; avg. guess 19/20, 1.772 bbu
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WASDE: Avg. guess 2019 U.S. corn crop, 14.040 bbu (range 12.988-14.859); avg. yield est., 171.1 bpa (162.5-176.0)
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T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms likely focus on the southeast half of the Corn Belt and Delta Sat.-Sun. in response to a passing storm system; 0.67” to 1.33” most common with much lighter totals to the northwest
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA pegs soybean planting at 60% compared to 39% last week, 92% last year and 88% for the 5-year average
· USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess 18/19 U.S. soybean carryout, 1.012 bbu; avg. guess 19/20, 0.990 bbu
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USDA WASDE report: Avg. guess 2019 U.S. soybean crop, 4.118 bbu (3.850-4.240); avg. yield est., 49.0 bpa (47.5-49.6)
· T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms likely focus on the southeast half of the Corn Belt and Delta Sat.-Sun. in response to a passing storm system; 0.67” to 1.33” most common with much lighter totals to the northwest
· USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess 18/19 U.S. all wheat carryout, 1.119 bbu; avg. guess 19/20, 1.106 bbu
· USDA Crop Production report: Avg. guess for 2019 U.S. all winter wheat crop is 1.255 bbu (range 1.194-1.316)
ENERGY
· Up: CLQ19, +$0.44 @ $53.92; EBQ, +$0.12 @ $62.41; EBQ-QCLQ, -.32; RBQ, +.0186; NGQ, +.010; HOQ, +.0009
· Chicago ethanol was $.00925 weaker at $1.47075/gallon; basis values were mixed: New York, +$.00425 @ $.15425; Gulf, -$.00825 @ $.09765; Dallas, +$.01925 @ $.11925; Tampa, -$.00075 @ $.21425; LA, -$.04075 @ $.12925
· Ethanol RINs were again firmer: 2018’s, +.1250 @ 10 ¼ -11; 2019’s, +.250 @ 14 ½ - 14 ¾    
· The July RBOB/June ethanol spread was $.0004 wider at +$.2573/gal yesterday; trading $.2788 this morning
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
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Choice boxed beef declined 65-cents on Monday to $221.66 and is $1.54 lower versus last week
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5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was dn $1.98 v. last week at $113.76/cwt, and is dn $0.90 v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 89-cents on Mon. to $82.99 but is still dn 98-cents vs. a week ago
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $49.20/cwt vs. last week’s $52.28, last month’s $63.38 & last year’s $44.11
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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