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TRENDS Lower CN, Down 5, SN, Down 5,WN, Down 6

June 11, 2019 06:50 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Lower: CN, -$.0375; SN, -$.0525; WN, -$.0625; KWN, -$.10.  USDA Supply/Demand (WASDE) report at 11:00 am CDT   
  • What caught my eye: New crop production obviously in focus but note average trade corn stocks guess calls for a 54 mbu boost to old crop ending stocks.  15.8 million acres of corn still to plant, 3.0 in IL and 1.8 in both OH and IN
  • Markets ignore White House threats for more tariffs on China, up sharply.  Asia: Higher--Nikkei, +0.33%; Shanghai, +2.58%; Hang Seng, +0.76%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +1.31%; FTSE, +0.48%; CAC, +0.78%.  WALL STREET—Futures are again higher--DOW, +116; S&P, +13.50; NAS, +47.00.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude: +$0.44 @ $53.92; Gold:  -$3.20 @ $1,326$ Index-.001 @ 96.75
  • T-storm Weather: Unseasonably cool surface-level high pressure leaves a wide area sharply cooler than normal by 6°F to 12°F through Thu.-Fri. as maximums hold in the 60s-70s & minimums dip to the 40s-50s.  A potent but humidity-starved system triggers scattered showers & thunderstorms across the eastern Dakotas and Corn Belt today-Wed., producing 0.10” to 0.30” in most areas, except for higher totals of 0.25” to 0.75” in / near WI, southern MN, & the northeast half of IA; mainly dry elsewhere
  • CN, dn $.0375 @ $4.12; CU, dn $.05 @ $4.2075.  The funds began the week trading even                 
  • SN, dn $.0525 @ $8.5325; SQ, dn $.0525 @ $8.60.  Funds: Bought 2 SB,38 SBM, 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.30, -2; LY, $1.55
  • WN, dn $.0625 @ $5.0125; WU, dn $.0650 @ $5.0525.  The funds bought 3 K on Monday         

CORN/SORGHUM

·   ​    U.S. corn planting is 83% vs. 99% last year; 2019 crop is rated 59% Good/Excellent v. 77% for the 2018 crop last year

·       USDA WASDE at 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade guess 18/19 U.S. corn carryout, 2.149 bbu; avg. guess 19/20, 1.772 bbu

  • WASDE: Avg. guess 2019 U.S. corn crop, 14.040 bbu (range 12.988-14.859); avg. yield est., 171.1 bpa (162.5-176.0)
  • T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms likely focus on the southeast half of the Corn Belt and Delta Sat.-Sun. in response to a passing storm system; 0.67” to 1.33” most common with much lighter totals to the northwest

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA pegs soybean planting at 60% compared to 39% last week, 92% last year and 88% for the 5-year average

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess 18/19 U.S. soybean carryout, 1.012 bbu; avg. guess 19/20, 0.990 bbu

  • USDA WASDE report: Avg. guess 2019 U.S. soybean crop, 4.118 bbu (3.850-4.240); avg. yield est., 49.0 bpa (47.5-49.6)

·       T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms likely focus on the southeast half of the Corn Belt and Delta Sat.-Sun. in response to a passing storm system; 0.67” to 1.33” most common with much lighter totals to the northwest

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess 18/19 U.S. all wheat carryout, 1.119 bbu; avg. guess 19/20, 1.106 bbu

·       USDA Crop Production report: Avg. guess for 2019 U.S. all winter wheat crop is 1.255 bbu (range 1.194-1.316)

ENERGY

·       Up: CLQ19+$0.44 @ $53.92; EBQ, +$0.12 @ $62.41; EBQ-QCLQ-.32; RBQ, +.0186; NGQ, +.010HOQ, +.0009

·       Chicago ethanol was $.00925 weaker at $1.47075/gallon; basis values were mixed: New York, +$.00425 @ $.15425; Gulf, -$.00825 @ $.09765; Dallas, +$.01925 @ $.11925; Tampa, -$.00075 @ $.21425; LA, -$.04075 @ $.12925  

·       Ethanol RINs were again firmer:  2018’s, +.1250 @ 10 ¼ -11; 2019’s, +.250 @ 14 ½ - 14 ¾                              &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                  

​ ·       The July RBOB/June ethanol spread was $.0004 wider at +$.2573/gal yesterday; trading $.2788 this morning

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                          ​             

  • Choice boxed beef declined 65-cents on Monday to $221.66 and is $1.54 lower versus last week  
  • 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was dn $1.98 v. last week at $113.76/cwt, and is dn $0.90 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 89-cents on Mon. to $82.99 but is still dn 98-cents vs. a week ago

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $49.20/cwt vs. last week’s $52.28, last month’s $63.38 & last year’s $44.11  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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