HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Lower: CN, -$.0275; SN, -$.0325 WN, -$.08; KWN, -$.0925     
• What caught my eye: Market focus remains on supply side but . . . unshipped corn sales to the Far East 2^nd lowest in 17 years, 2^nd only to summer of 2013; USDA sees 3 major competitor 19/20 exports down 3 MMT; bias here is FH #’s could be UP that much!   
• Follow through gains on Trump’s trade optimism.  Asia: Firm--Nikkei, +1.72%; Shanghai, +0.96%; Hang Seng, +2.56%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, +0.05%; FTSE, -0.28%; CAC, +0.04%.  WALL STREET—Futures are firm--DOW, +20; S&P, +1.50; NAS, +6.50.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude: -$0.09 @ $54.02; Gold:  -$4.70 @ $1,346; $ Index: -.07 @ 97.57
• T-storm Weather: Thunderstorms affect varying areas of central U.S. each day over the next week, producing widespread totals of 1.50”-3.50” south & 1.25”-2.50” north.  Thunderstorms focus on southern half of Corn Belt (along/south of I-80) & Delta today & rain also impacts spring wheat in/near western ND.  Numerous waves of energy then trigger thunderstorms within a wide area Thu.-Mon.  Unseasonable coolness affects northwest two-thirds of central U.S. through June 24; seasonable temps elsewhere
• CN, dn $.0275 @ $4.47; CU, dn $.0350 @ $4.52.  Markets run out of steam?  Funds sell 8 K                    
• SN, dn $.0325 @ $9.125; SQ, dn $.0320 @ $9.17.  Funds: Even SB; sold 3 K SBM; bot 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.06, 49; LY, $1.64
• WN, dn $.08 @ $5.2350; WU, dn $.0850 @ $5.27.  The funds were also sellers of 8 K, despite a wet SRW outlook           

CORN/SORGHUM

• T-storm Weather: In the U.S., a sharply warmer period unfolds from June 24-25 forward; some thunderstorms accompany warmth, esp. in northern areas, though frequency & coverage of rain diminishes with southward extent
• ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn export est. is 25-35 mbu per week with a strong bias toward lower end of the range

·       Consultant: Argentina corn production est. was unch this week at 49.0 MMT with a neutral bias; harvest at 42.3%

• Ethanol margins: ($0.01) per gallon—dn vs. $0.04 last week and well below $0.33 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• T-storm Weather: In the U.S., a sharply warmer period unfolds from June 24-25 forward; some thunderstorms accompany warmth, esp. in northern areas, though frequency & coverage of rain diminishes with southward extent
• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports remains in the 20-30 mbu per week range
• T-storm Weather: Organized thunderstorms over June 25-July 1 are most likely across U.S. hard red spring wheat belt
• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports is lowered to the 15-20 mbu per week range

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLQ19, -$0.09 @ $54.02; EBQ, -$0.42 @ $61.72; EBQ-QCLQ, -.33; RBQ, -.0079; NGQ, unch; HOQ, -.0096

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -1.6 (-0.8); Gasoline, +0.4 (+1.5); Distillates, NA (-0.05).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 1.073 mbpd (range: 1.065-1.085).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 21.877 mb (range 21.777-22.052)

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.00850 to $1.60; basis values were firmer: New York, +$.016 @ $.1475; Gulf, +$.0060 @ $.09750; Dallas, +$.0185 @ $.09; Tampa, +$.0285 @ $.2150; LA, +$.0085 @ $.1950  

·       Ethanol RINs were up sharply:  2018’s, +3.1250 @ 15 ¾ -19 ¼; 2019’s, +3.1250 @ 20-23                                &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                   

​ ·       The July RBOB/July ethanol spread widened $.0336 Tuesday to +$.12140/gal 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                      &nb​sp;   

• Choice boxed beef was $1.29 lower on Tuesday at $220.53 and is down $1.86 versus last week 
• Estimates for Friday USDA Cattle on Feed: June 1 on feed, 101.3%; May placements, 95.9%; Marketed in May 100.8%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.57 on Tue. to $79.94 and is $2.31 lower compared to a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.01 on Tue. to $79.26.  July futures declined $1.575 but are still $2.215 above the index       

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

​