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TRENDS Lower CN, Down 10, SN, Down 5, WN, Down 11

May 31, 2019 07:21 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Lower: CN, $.0525; SN, -$.04; WN, -$.0725; KWN, -$.0450 
  • What caught my eye: 2 things . . .(1) It has been a while . . . the last time that nearby corn traded above $4.49 ¼ was back on June 30, 2014.  And (2) Mexican tariffs?  The country takes about 25% of U.S. corn/7-10% of U.S. beans; Brazil, ain’t that far away
  • Another trade war?  All Mexican imports to be taxed at 5%--immigration issues.  Asia: Lower--Nikkei, -1.63%; Shanghai, -0.24%; Hang Seng, -0.79%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, -1.92%; FTSE, -1.10%; CAC, -1.59%.  WALL STREET—Futures are not higher--DOW, -282; S&P, -34; NAS, -109.  EXTERNALS: July crude: -$1.16 @ $55.42; Gold:  +$11.30 @ $1,304$ Index-.140 @ 98.002
  • T-storm Weather: A cool front triggers scattered showers and some thunderstorms within / near much of the Corn Belt from tonight through Sat. night, especially from IA-MO east through IL, IN, and OH where 0.20” to 0.70” falls.  Much of the Corn Belt will be dry Sun.-Mon. as surface-level high pressure passes, while a sharp temperature gradient forms in the Plains and helps several thunderstorm clusters to erupt from NE south
  • CN, down $.0525 @ $4.31; CU, down $.0525 @ $4.40.  The funds were active buyers with an estimated 40 K total            
  • SN, dn $.04 @ $8.85; SQ, down $.0375 @ $8.9175.  Funds: Bot-- 20 SB, 10 SBM, 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.37, +2; LY, $1.49
  • WN, dn $.0725 @ $5.0725; WU, dn $.0750 @ $5.1475.  The funds were buyers yesterday, 15 K     

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 14-26 mbu for 18/19 corn

  • T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms form in southeast two-thirds of central U.S. June 4-5 forward.  Heavy rain  is probable next week in at least part of central & southern Plains; completely dry weather is unlikely in MN, SD & ND

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,057,000 barrels/day for week end May 24—dn 14 thou v. prior week but up 1.5% v. last year

  • USDA is scheduled to conduct its survey during the first two weeks of June for theAcreage report (release date June 28).  It’s possible a follow-up survey on actual plantings could then be done for the August Supply/Demand report

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 9-17 mbu for 18/19 soybeans; soymeal, 100-250 K MT; soyoil, 8-22 K MT 

  • T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms form in southeast two-thirds of central U.S. June 4-5 forward.  Heavy rain  is probable next week in at least part of central & southern Plains; completely dry weather is unlikely in MN, SD & ND

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is unch at 56.0 MMT; neutral to maybe slightly higher bias.  Harvest at 85%

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 2-9 mbu for 18/19 all wheat and 6-13 mbu for 19/20

  • T-storm Weather: Heavy thunderstorms occasionally affect HRW wheat from Nebraska south starting this weekend 

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLN19+$1.16 @ $55.42; EBN, -$1.97 @ $64.90; EBN-QCLN-.82; RBN, -.0352; NGN, +.017HON, -.0320

·       Chicago ethanol was $.03875 higher at $1.51375; basis values were again all firmer: New York, +$.01625 @ $.14125; Gulf, +$.00125 @ $.09125; Dallas, +$.00625 @ $.07125; Tampa, +$.01625 @ $.19125; LA, +$.01125 @ $.24625  

·       Ethanol RINs were mixed:  2018’s, unch @ 9 ½ -10; 2019’s, -.125 @ 13 ½ -14                                                     &​nbsp;                 

· ​;      The June RBOB/June ethanol spread snapped in, giving up $.1166 to close at+$.3586/gal

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               &n​bsp;                       

  • Choice boxed beef firmed a nickel on Thursday to $223.58 and is $2.79 higher compared to a week ago  
  • August live cattle futures on Thu. closed at $105.50—the lowest settlement price for the contract since May 16, 2018

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value plummeted $2.37 on Thu. to $80.69 and is $1.26 lower versus last week

·       CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.34 on Thu. to $82.22.  June futures were $1.525 lower but are $1.455 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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