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TRENDS Lower CH, Down 1, SH, Down 6, WH, Down 4

January 14, 2019 07:00 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—(5:05 am)—Lower: CH, -$.0050; SH, -$.0575; WH, -$.0325; KWH, -$.02
  • MACRO:  China trade data disappoints, December imports down 7.6%; exports fall 4.4%.  Asia: Lower--Nikkei, +closed;Shanghai, -0.71%; Hang Seng, -1.38%.  EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.75%; FTSE, -1.03%; CAC, -0.92%.  WALL STREET: Futures are down rather hard: DOW, -226; S&P, -24.75; NAS, -85.25.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: -$0.93@ $50.64; Gold: +$4.90 @ $1,294; Mar $ Index, -.021 @ 94.245.  Del’y: SBM, 63; SBO, 17; RR, 9; SB, 135
  • T-storm Weather: In South America, upper-level high pressure near eastern Brazil keeps the weather pattern stuck, generally causing similar weather to continue at any given location.  The end result is for central and northern corn and soybean areas of Brazil to remain drier than normal over the next 10 days.  Conversely, numerous heavy rain events affect Argentina to maintain wet and flooded conditions – especially in eastern areas.  Near-normal rainfall is forecast for Southern Brazil and Paraguay

·        CH, dn $.0050 @ $3.7775; CK, dn $.0050 @ $3.8625.  Funds buy 6 K on Friday            

  • SH, dn $.0575 @ $9.0450; SK, dn $.05 @ $9.1875.  Funds: Bot 3 K SB, 4 K SBO & sold 3 K SBM.  Board Crush: $0.94, -6; LY: $1.01 
  • WH, dn $.0325 @ $5.1625; WK, dn  $.0350 @ $5.2159.  Fund activity on Friday was estimated at purchases of 6 K                       

CORN/SORGHUM

·        Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 50.7 mbu needed; 19.7 last week.  Milo—2.3 needed; 1.2 last week

·        T-storm Weather: In Brazil, hints of a seasonably-stormier period exist in 10 to 14 days across currently dry central and northern full-season corn production areas when a cool front attempts to pass

·        Consultant: Full-season corn in Brazil was at varying levels of development when hot and dry weather hit, which may limit losses.  Some crop was pollinating and filling grain, while corn in other areas was still in vegetative development

·        March 2019 corn futures on Friday closed at $3.78 ¼; one year ago, March 2018 corn futures settled at $3.46 ¼

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 37.2 mbu needed; 24.7 last week

·        T-storm Weather: In Brazil, hints of a seasonably-stormier period exist in 10 to 14 days across currently dry central and northern soybean production areas when a cool front attempts to pass

·        Consultant: Virtually every major soybean producing state in Brazil is now forecasting that the soybean yields in 2018/19 will be lower than in 2017/18

·        Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 25.0 mbu needed; 9.6 last week

·        T-storm Weather: A colder period likely begins next weekend (Jan. 19-20) for U.S. HRW wheat production areas  

ENERGY

·        Down: CLG19, -$0.93 @ $50.64; EBG, -$1.01 @ $59.47; EBG-QCLG, -$0.02; RBG, -.0240; NGG, +.226HOG, 0.0082

·        Chicago ethanol was $.0225 firmer $1.28125; basis values were weaker: New York, -$.0225 @ $.10875; Gulf, -$.0075 @ $.10875; Dallas, -$.0175 @ $.06875; Tampa, -$.0225 @ $.17375; and LA, -$.01750 @ $.19375    

·        Ethanol RINs firmed: 2017’s, +.50 @ 10-11 ½; 2018’s, +0.3750 @ 14 1/2 -15; 2019’s, +0.1250 @ 17 -17 ½                               

·       &n​bsp;The Feb RBOB/Feb ethanol spread narrowed $.0470 on Friday to to +$.11370/gal 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;       

  • Choice boxed beef values fell $1.50 on Friday to $212.46, and are $2.05 lower versus a week ago

·        Light to moderate cash cattle trade developed on Fri. in the South at $122—generally $1 higher than the prior week

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 71-cents on Friday to $69.95, and is $1.57 higher versus last week

  • CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.70 on Fri. at $56.69.  February futures fell $1.425, but are $5.96 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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