HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS (5 am)—Lower: CH, -$.0050; SH, -$.0125; WH, -$.0250; KWH, -$.0125.
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MACRO: World stocks are little changed today, following Friday’s positive U.S. economic results; accommodative policy signals from the Fed & indications of trade dispute progress. Asia: Higher--Nikkei, +0.46%; Shanghai, Closed; Hang Seng, +0.21%. EUROPE: Mostly lower—DAX, -0.14%; FTSE, +0.24%; CAC, -0.40%. WALL STREET: Futures are slightly higher: DOW, +39; S&P, +3.75; NAS, +10.50. EXTERNALS: March crude: +$0.09 @ $55.35; Gold: -$7 @ $1,315; Mar $ Index, +0.160 @ 95.460
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T-storm Weather: In Brazil, a cool front shifts northward and dissipates from Tuesday-Wednesday forward, triggering scattered thunderstorms each day, and culminating in 3.50” to 5.00” over the next two weeks, compared to normal rainfall of 3.00” to 4.50”. In Argentina, dry weather diminishes wetness through at least Friday, but coolness through Tuesday will be offset by maximums in the 90s Thu.-Fri.
· CH, dn $.0050 @ $3.7775; CK, dn $.0050 @ $3.8650. The funds bought 5 K on Friday
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SH, dn $.0125 @ $9.1650; SK, dn $.0075 @ $9.3075. Funds: Bought 5 SB, 5 SBM & sold 3 SBO. Board Crush: $.97, -$.02 LY; $1.08
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WH, dn $.0250 @ $5.2175; WK, dn $.03 @ $5.2525. The funds bought 6 K to close out the week
CORN/SORGHUM
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 51.7 mbu needed; 35.2 last week. Milo—2.4 needed; 0.3 last week
· T-storm Weather: In Brazil, forecasted rainfall this week likely arrives too late for most first-crop corn in central areas given the late return of precip, but improves conditions for growth and development of safrinha (double crop) corn
· Consultant: Planting of safrinha (double crop) corn in Brazil is progressing at a record fast pace. Rapid planting will result in earlier-than-normal pollination, which may be important if there is an early end to the rainy season
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December 2019 corn on Fri. closed at $4.02 ¼, -$0.01 v. prior week. Last year, December 2018 corn settled at $3.92 ½
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 37.0 mbu needed; 34.2 last week
· T-storm Weather: In Argentina, soils are wet, but only ~12% of soybean production received at least twice normal rainfall over the 30 days ending Friday
· Consultant: In Brazil, forecasted rain developing this week across key soybean areas will arrive too late for some of the crop, but will help stabilize production potential in northeastern regions
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 26.2 mbu needed; 13.3 last week
· Chicago SRW March 2019 wheat on Fri. closed at $5.24 ½; one year ago, Chicago SRW March 2018 settled at $4.46 ¾
ENERGY
· Higher: CLH19, +$0.09 @ $53.35; EBJ, +$0.54 @ $630.29; EBJ-QCLJ, +$0.43; RBH, +.0214; NGH, -.025; HOH, +0.0141
· Chicago ethanol was $.03450 higher Friday at $1.3095; basis values were again mixed: New York, -$.0070 @ $.123; Gulf, +$.0005 @ $.1055; Dallas, +$.0005 @ $.0805; Tampa, +$.0030 @ $.1830 and LA, -$.0020 @ $.17050
· Ethanol RINs weakened: 2017’s, -0.75 @ 17 1/2 -19; 2018’s, -0.75 @ 18 ½ -20; 2019’s, -.3750 @ 21 ½-22 ¾
· The March RBOB/Feb ethanol spread widened $.0350 on Friday to at +$.1339/gal
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
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Choice boxed beef values were $1.13 lower on Friday at $214.26, and are down $2.75 compared to last week
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Dressed steer weight for week end Dec. 22: 891 lbs, dn 1 lb v. prior week, 897.25 for the 4-week avg. & 903 last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 74-cents on Fri. to $65.67, and is 48-cents lower versus a week ago
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CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.22 on Fri. to $57.18. February futures gained $0.10, but are $0.83 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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