HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—Higher: CZ, +$.0475; SX, +$.0525; WZ, +$.05; KWZ, +$.0350. Dely (09/09): SM, 111; BO, 30; RR, 5; C, 724; ETOH, 0: HRW, 7 SB, 401; SRW, 20
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What caught my eye: Declines of 8 and 4 points in the Illinois and Nebraska corn ratings sort of jumped out yesterday, as did a 5 point reduction in the former’s soybean numbers—markets responded accordingly overnight?
· Markets mostly lower as investors wring hands over future central bank rate cuts. ASIA: Mostly firm--Nikkei, +0.35%; Shanghai, -0.12%; Hang Seng, +0.01%. EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.14%; FTSE, -0.03%; CAC, -0.47%. WALL STREET—Futures are down-- DOW, -41; S&P, -4.75; NAS, -19.25. EXTERNALS: Nov crude: +$0.2534 @ $57.98; Gold: -$8.20 @ $1,503; $ Index: +.011 @ 98.390
· T-storm Weather®: Heavy rain affects the northern half of the central U.S. through Thursday, followed by 5-7 consecutive days of drying. Temperatures average considerably warmer than normal over the next 10 to 14 days with a killing freeze not expected in corn and soybean areas. In Brazil, significant rainfall is not foreseen away from Rio Grande do Sul over the next 10 to 14 days, limiting planting given widespread agricultural drought already exists. Rains will be limited on Argentina wheat for 7-10 days
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CZ, up $.0475 @ $3.59; CH, up $.0475 @ $3.72. The funds sold 2 K to begin the work week
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SX, up $.0525 @ $8.63; SF, up $.0525 @ $8.7725. Funds: Even SB, Bot 1 K SBM, sold 2 K SBO. Board Crush: $0.92, 0; LY, $1.60
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WZ, up $.05 @ $4.7950; WH, up $.0475 @ $4.8375. The funds bought 5 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· U.S. corn crop is rated 55% Good/Excellent versus 58% last week and well below 68% last year. Dent is 55% vs. 84% last year and the 5-year average of 77%. Mature is 11% vs. 33% for last year and 24% for the 5-year average
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T-storm Weather®: Heavy rain (1.50”-3.00”) impacts corn in northern half of the central U.S. the next several days
· USDA WASDE report Sep. 12: Avg. trade guess 2019 U.S. corn crop: 13.551 bbu (range 12.620-14.003), 13.901 in Aug.
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USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn carryout--18/19, 2.402 bbu (2.360 in Aug); 19/20, 1.930 (2.181 in Aug)
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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U.S. soybean crop is rated 55% Good/Excellent versus, which is unchanged versus last week but well below 68% last year. Soybeans setting pods are pegged at 92% vs. 100% last year and the 5-year avg. of 99%
· USDA WASDE report Sep. 12: Avg. trade guess 2019 U.S. soybean crop: 3.581 bbu (range 3.434-3.745), 3.680 in Aug.
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USDA WASDE: Avg. guess for U.S. soybean carryout--18/19, 1.046 bbu (1.070 in Aug); 19/20, 0.655 bbu (0.755 in Aug)
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T-storm Weather®: Heavy rain of 1.50”-3.00” in/near MN & the Dakotas next several days stops spring wheat harvest
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USDA WASDE: Avg. guess for U.S. all wheat carryout--19/20, 1.020 bbu (1.014 in Aug)
ENERGY
· Firm: CLX19, +$0.25 @ $57.98; EBX, +$0.28 @ $62.87; EBX-QCLX, +.05; RBX, +.0077; NGX, +.036; HOX, +.0072
· Chicago ethanol gained $.0025 on Monday, to $1.31; basis values were mixed: NYC, +$.00875 @ $.13625; Gulf, unch @ $.1075; Dallas, -$.0025 @ $.1150; Tampa, -$.0025 @ $.23; LA, -$.0125 @ $.2350
· Ethanol RINs were unchanged/lower: 2018’s steady at @ 8 -9 and 2019’s off .3750 @ 17 ¾ -18 ½      
· The October RBOB/October ethanol spread moved out $.0044 on Monday to $.27460/gal
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef was 36-cents lower on Monday at $226.95 and is down $3.71 compared to a week ago
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5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $3.86. last week to $101.73/cwt and is $5.94 lower v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.86 on Mon. to $70.72 and is down $4.23 versus last week
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.89/cwt vs. last week’s $44.39, last month’s $39.59 & last year’s $25.45  
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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