HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Higher:  CZ, +$.0425; SX, +$.0975; WZ, +$.0250; KWZ, +$.0450 

·       What caught my eye:  Yesterday’s Crop Production:  “All forecasts in this report are based on conditions as of October 1, 2019 and assume normal weather for the remainder of the growing season”.  Seems a bit friendly given immediate weather outlook

·       Hopes for progress in U.S./China trade negotiations?  ASIA: Higher--Nikkei, +1.15%; Shanghai, +0.88%; Hang Seng, +2.34%.  EUROPE: Higher —DAX, +1.93%; FTSE, +0.36%; CAC, +1.26%.  WALL STREET—Up, up & away, maybe-- DOW, +255; S&P, +28.75; NAS, +86.50.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: +$1.00 @ $54.55; Gold: -$3.20 @ $1,498; $ Index:-.157 @ 98.544

• Weather: Dry conditions or just some light mixed precipitation is forecast for western U.S. Corn Belt today-Sat.  Temps are projected to be below to much below normal today-Wed.; there is the chance of a growing season ending freeze in some areas Sat.-Wed.  Scattered showers & thunderstorms are forecast for eastern Corn Belt today.  Some moderate to heavy totals are possible.  Temps average above normal through today, but below to much below normal Saturday
• CZ, up $.425 @ $3.4450; CH, up $.0375 @ $3.9525.  Bearish report, funds sell 30 K             
• SX, up $.0975 @ $9.3325; SF, up $.0950 @ $9.47.  Funds: Bot 6 SB, sold 3 SBM, & bot 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.81, -3; LY, $1.58
• WZ, up $.0250 @ $4.9550; WH, up $.02 @ $5.0175.  Fund selling was estimated at 6 K on Thursday          

CORN/SORGHUM

• Weather: Dry weather is forecast for western U.S. Corn Belt for Sun.-Mon., although temps remain below normal.  Dry weather is also forecast for the eastern Corn Belt Sat.-Mon. with near to below normal temps Sun.-Mon.

·       ATI Research: The USDA’s updated 2018/19 U.S. corn carry-out forecast of 1.813 bbu came in 119 mbu below the average trade estimate, reflecting a 0.6 bpa reduction in yield (trade was expecting a 0.5 bpa INCREASE)

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 963,000 barrels/day for week end Oct. 5—up 5 thou v. prior week but dn 7.4% v. last year

·       Unshipped U.S. corn export sales as of Oct. 3 were 312 mbu, which is down 46% compared to 572 mbu last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• Weather: Dry weather is forecast for western U.S. Corn Belt for Sun.-Mon., although temps remain below normal.  Dry weather is also forecast for the eastern Corn Belt Sat.-Mon. with near to below normal temps Sun.-Mon.
• ATI Research: USDA only raised its U.S. soybean yield by 0.3 bpa—about one-half the amount expected by the trade.  That, and a 0.5 million-acre reduction in harv acreage kept the carry-out forecast from edging closer to 950 mbu

·       Unshipped U.S. wheat export sales as of Oct. 3 were 165 mbu, which is down 3% compared to 170 mbu last year

·       ATI Research: U.S. all wheat carry-out forecast of 0.956 bbu was right in line with the trade.  Reduction of 1.5 MMT in

ENERGY

·       Up: CLX19, +$1.00 @ $54.55; EBZ, +$0.86 @ $59.96; EBZ-QCLZ, -.18; RBX, +.01; NGX, +.006; HOX, +.0299

·       Chicago ethanol was up $.0475 @ $1.62; basis values weakened:  NYC, -$.08 @ +$.1750; Gulf, -$.0475 @ +$.05; Dallas, -$.0425 @ 0 vs Chi; Tampa, -$.0675 @ +$.08; LA, -$.0575 @ $.14

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker with 2018’s,-0.25 @ 7 ½ -10; 2019’s, -0.8750 @ 16 ½ -19                                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;        

·       The November RBOB/November ethanol spread captured all of Wednesday’s loss, widening $.0485 to $.1400/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr>                        &n​bsp; 

·      &nb​sp;Choice boxed beef was $1.03 higher on Thursday at $215.63 and is up $3.57 versus last week

• December live cattle futures on Wednesday settled at $111.425—a gain of $.25

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $0.46 higher on Thu. at $76.06 but is still up $0.86 versus a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.53 on Thu. at $60.65.  October futures eased $0.400 and are $1.75 above the index                             

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather