HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Higher:  CZ, +$.0175; SX, +$.0825; WZ, +$.0550; KWZ, +$.0550 

·       What caught my eye:  China to offer all private importers tariff-free quotas on U.S. soybeans up to a total of 10 MMT; equates to 150 cargoes; no time line given but would expect to have an impact during the Oct-Feb timeframe as S AM supplies tighten

·       Market focus on earnings, Wall Street wavering + and -.  ASIA: Firm--Nikkei, Closed; Shanghai, +0.50%; Hang Seng, +0.23%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.21%; FTSE, +.49%; CAC, +0.03%.  WALL STREET—Futures are slightly easier-- DOW, -2; S&P, -0.50; NAS, +3.75.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: +$0.34 @ $53.65; Gold: +$2.70 @ $1,491; $ Index: +.053 @ 97.381

• T-storm Weather®: Drying occurs across most U.S. corn and soybean growing areas for at least five days, after which an upper-level system passes Sat.-Sun. and potentially brings light rain to the southern half of the growing belt.  Cold fronts pass every few days this week to leave a wide area colder to much colder than normal with highs often in the 40s-50s and lows in the 20s-30s, inducing occasional freezes across the northwest third of the growing belt, and occasional frosts elsewhere
• CZ, up $.02 @ $3.8925; CH, up $.0150 @ $4.01.  The funds began the week selling another 5 K              
• SX, up $.0825 @ $9.4150; SF, up $.0850 @ $9.5525.  Funds: Even SB; sold 1 SBM & even SBO.  Board Crush: $0.79, 0; LY, $1.50
• WZ, up $.0550 @ $5.29; WH, up $.0550 @ $5.35.  Fund sales:  6 K           

CORN/SORGHUM

• Corn Good/Excellent at 56% v. 55% last week & 68% last year.  Harvest at 30% v. 48% in 2018 & 5-year avg. of 47%

·       ATI Research: Updated U.S. corn ending stocks estimate for 2019/20 is 1.871 bbu vs. October USDA est. of 1.929 bbu

• T-storm Weather®: In southern Brazil, a stormy period begins Sat.-Sun. and continues for 5-7 days; near- to above-normal rain totals of 1.50”-3.00”.  End result is that dryness eases over next 10 to 14 days for full season corn growth

·       Consultant: Brazil 19/20 corn crop est. lowered 2.0 MMT to 103.0 MMT.  Delayed soybean planting means some  safrinha (double crop) corn will be planted after the ideal planting window closes, increasing the risk of lower yields

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• Soybean Good/Excellent at 54% v. 54% last week & 66% last year.  Harvest at 46% v. 51% in 2018 & 5-year avg. of 64%

·       ATI Research: updated U.S. soybean ending stocks est. for 2019/20 is 0.444 bbu vs. October USDA est. of 0.460 bbu

• Consultant: dryness delaying south-central Brazil soybean planting; some replant also likely due to poor germination
• T-storm Weather®: in southern Brazil, a stormy period begins Sat.-Sun. and continues for 5-7 days; near- to above-normal rain totals of 1.50”-3.00”.  End result is that dryness eases over next 10 to 14 days for soybean growth

·       U.S. winter wheat planting pegged at 77% vs. 65% last week, 71% last year and the 5-year average of 75%

·       T-storm Weather®: total of 74% and 77% Argentina wheat was drier than normal over the 30 and 90 days ending Sat.

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLX19, +$0.34 @ $53.65; EBZ, +$0.31 @ $59.27; EBZ-QCLZ, +.07; RBX, +.0050; NGX, +.008; HOX, +.0043

·       Chicago ethanol began the week down $.0350 at $1.4950; basis values were mixed:  NYC, -$.01 @ +$.1150; Gulf, -$.0550 @ +$.0550; Dallas, +$.0150 @ +.1050; Tampa, +$.0150 @ +$.2050; LA, +$.0425 @ +$.3000

·       Ethanol RINs were steady/firm: 2018’s, +.50 @ 6 ¾ -7 ¼; 2019’s, +.25 @ 15 ¼ -15 ¾; 2020’s, unch @ 22 ¼ -22 ¾                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​; 

·       The November RBOB/November ethanol spread widened $.0022 to $.1882/gallon on Monday    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        &​nbsp;              <​/strong>

·       Choice boxed beef firmed $2.09 on Monday to $220.13 and is up $2.91 compared to a week ago  

• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price gained $0.52 last week to $109.73/cwt but is $0.32 lower v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $1.60 on Mon. to $77.89 and is 40-cents higher versus last week

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $51.49/cwt vs. last week’s $50.57, last month’s $50.14 and last year’s $34.88              

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather