HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Higher:  CZ, +$.02; SX, +$.0225; WZ, +$.06; KWZ, +$.0650. Dely: SM, 520; BO, 0; RR, 0; C, 694; HRW, 12; SB, 591; SRW, 293
• What caught my eye: Seems like the trade is beginning to “grudgingly” (?) accept the USDA’s August corn yield estimate of 169.5, or at least within 1-2 bpa of the latter.  While 100-200 mbu below the Gov, partial offset likely to be higher carry-over from 18/19

·       China/U.S. are talking.  ASIA: Mostly higher--Nikkei, +2.12%; Shanghai, +0.96%; Hang Seng, -0.03%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, +0.83%; FTSE, -0.75%; CAC, +0.90%.  WALL STREET—Futures are definitely higher-- DOW, +255; S&P, +26.50; NAS, +93.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: -$0.16 @ $55.94; Gold:  -$12 @ $1,548; $ Index: -.243 @ 98.208

·       T-storm Weather®: Dry weather dominates the central U.S. through at least Friday, followed by an uptick in rainfall from northwest to southeast over Sep. 7-13 as a number of waves of energy produce near-normal totals in at least central and northern areas over the next 10 days.  Temperatures will be seasonable to mild over the next two weeks with a killing freeze not foreseen.  Otherwise, Dorian brushes the eastern Carolinas as a low-end event Thu.-Fri. and then moves out to sea

• CZ, up $.02 @ $3.6050; CH, up $.0225 @ $3.74.  The funds were again trading on the sales side with 8 K sold Wednesday       
• SX, up $.0225 @ $8.7725; SF, up $.0175 @ $8.91.  Funds: Bot 6  K SB, 6 K SBM, sold 2 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.90, +1; LY, $1.49
• WZ, up $.06 @ $4.6675; WH, up $.0525 @ $4.7225.  The funds bought 5 K at mid-week                      

CORN/SORGHUM

• T-storm Weather®: temps will be seasonable to mild for U.S. corn much of next two weeks with highs generally in the 70s-80s & lows in the 50s; there remains little to no chance for a killing freeze (lows of 28°F / -2°C or colder) to unfold

·       Early private estimates of U.S. corn yield in Sep. 12 USDA Crop Production report are down slightly v. USDA August est

• ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. corn exports is unchanged at 15-25 mbu per week compared to 43.0 last year

·       Ethanol margins: $0.08 per gallon—unchanged vs. last week but below $0.22 in 2018.  EIA report at 10:00 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Early private estimates of U.S. soybean yield in Sep. 12 USDA Crop Production report are lower v. USDA August est.

• ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports is unchanged at 30-40 mbu per week vs. 28.5 last year

·       ATI Research: History suggests potential for decrease in Australia wheat crop in Sep. 12 USDA supply/demand report

• T-storm Weather®: at least near-normal rainfall is forecast over Sep. 7-13 for un-harvested U.S. HRS wheat

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLX19, -$0.16 @ $55.94; EBX, +$0.12 @ $60.82; EBX-QCLX, +.24; RBX, -.0016; NGX, +.002; HOX, +.0010

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -2.1 (+0.4); Gasoline, -2.0 (-0.9); Distillates, +0.4 (-1.2).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.026 mbpd (range: 1.015-1.032).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 22.797 mb (range 22.607-22.900)

·       Chicago ethanol edged up $.0035 to $1.32; basis values were mixed:  NYC, -$.0085 @ $.1250; Gulf, -$.00850 @ $.11; Dallas, -$.0085 @ $.1150; Tampa, +$.0065 @ $.23; LA, +$.0015 @ $.22

·       Ethanol RINs were again firmer, up .3750 with 2018’s @ 8  ½ -9 and 2019’s up .25 @ 15 ½ -16                               &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;          

·     &n​bsp; The October RBOB/September ethanol spread moved out $.0947 to $.2410/gal yesterday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  &​nbsp;                    <​/wbr>

• Choice boxed beef eased a penny on Wednesday to $230.65 and is $2.31 lower compared to last week 
• Cash trade in Nebraska on Wed. was $167-$170 per cwt dressed, which is generally $1-$4 per cwt lower v. last week

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.85 on Wednesday to $73.10 but is still $2.02 higher vs. a week ago  

·       CME Lean Hog Index fell $1.40 on Wed. to $66.57.  October futures gained $0.600 & are now $0.555 above the index                                  &nbs​p;        

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather