HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Higher:  CZ, +$.0125; SX, +$.0275; WZ, +$.0450; KWZ, +$.03. Dely: SM, 591; BO, 4; RR, 40; C, 946; HRW, 134; SB, 630; SRW, 175
• What caught my eye: Surprisingly strong soybean exports versus trade expectations yesterday with China accounting for 29 of the 47 mbu total. Also July crush was a bit better than expected.  Suggests USDA  overestimating 18/19 c/o by 60-70 million 

·       Chinese service sector expands fastest in 3 mos; UK says must have Brexit deal, Boris.  ASIA: Higher--Nikkei, +0.12%; Shanghai, +0.93%; Hang Seng, +3.90%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +1.05%; FTSE, +0.36%; CAC, +1.01%.  WALL STREET—Futures rebound?-- DOW, +196; S&P, +23; NAS, +81.25.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude:+$0.52 @ $54.28; Gold:  -$10 @ $1,546; $ Index: -.368 @ 98.632

·       T-storm Weather®: Seasonable to mild temperatures dominate the central U.S. over the next 10 to 14 days.  A killing freeze is not foreseen, and is climatologically only a low possibility in northern areas within Sep. 15-25.  Most areas will be dry through Friday, followed by an uptick in rainfall from west to east over Sep. 7-11.  Otherwise, agricultural drought is being monitored across Brazil, but planting season is generally four to eight weeks out, and rains generally become more common in October

• CZ, up $.0125 @ $3.6225; CH, up $.0125 @ $3.7550.  No immediate weather threats; funds sell 20 K       
• SX, up $.0275 @ $8.7125; SF, up $.03 @ $8.8525.  Funds: Sold 2  KSB, 2 K SBM, bot 3 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.89, -6; LY, $1.50
• WZ, up $.0450 @ $4.58; WH, up $.0350 @ $4.6325.  Funds were also sellers in wheat, 7 K                      

CORN/SORGHUM

·     ​  U.S. corn crop is rated 58% Good/Excellent versus 57% last week but below 67% last year.  Dent is 41% vs. 73% last year and the 5-year average of 63%.  Mature is 6% vs. 20% for last year and 13% for the 5-year average

• T-storm Weather®: temps over the next two weeks average near and warmer than normal with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s most days.  A killing freeze (28°F / -2°C or colder) is not foreseen over the next two weeks

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2019 U.S. corn crop is 168.2 bpa versus August USDA projection of 169.5

·       U.S. sorghum crop is rated 67% Good/Excellent versus 66% last week and 52% last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean crop is rated 55% Good/Excellent versus 55% last week but below 66% last year.  Soybeans setting pods are pegged at 86% vs. 98% last year and the 5-year avg. of 96% 

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2019 U.S. soybean crop is 48.5 bpa vs. August USDA projection of 48.5

• ATI Research: Updated est. of 2019 U.S. HRS wheat crop is 574 mbu v. 580 mbu last week; harvest at 55% v. 78% avg.
• T-storm Weather®: general rainfall of 0.75”-1.50” affects most un-harvested U.S. HRS wheat from Sep. 7-16

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLX19, +$0.52 @ $54.28; EBX, +$0.32 @ $58.58; EBX-QCLX, -.18; RBX,+.0094; NGX, -.003; HOX, +.0137

·       Chicago ethanol again weaker, off $.03725 at $1.31650 Tuesday; basis values were higher:  NYC, +$.00225 @ $.13350; Gulf, +$.02225 @ $.11850; Dallas, +$.01225 @ $.12350; Tampa, +$.02225 @ $.22350; LA, +$.01725 @ $.2185

·       Ethanol RINs firmed with 2018’s up .3750 @ 8 -8 ¾ and 2019’s up .25 @ 15 -15 ¾                                  &nbs​p;                                                 ​;       

·       The October RBOB/September ethanol spread weakened even further, down $.1262 to $.1472/gal Tuesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   ​;                    

• Choice boxed beef declined $1.11 on Tuesday to $230.66 and is down $7.40 versus a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $1.53 last week to $105.59/cwt and is $1.59 lower v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $3.34 higher on Tue. at $74.95 but is still $2.70 lower vs. last week  

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $44.39/cwt vs. last week’s $41.47, last month’s $42.85 & last year’s $20.78                                   &n​bsp;       

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather