HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Higher: CU, +$.06; SQ, +$.0450; WU, +$.02; KWU, +$.0225      
• What caught my eye:  trade said to be expecting a 1-2 point improvement in ratings this afternoon but the 6-10 & 10-14 day forecasts suggest a warmer, drier pattern which is causing the trade some concern
• Strong jobs report dims hopes for Fed rate cut.  Asia: Lower--Nikkei, -0.98%;Shanghai, -2.58%; Hang Seng, -1.54%.  EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.17%; FTSE,-0.15%; CAC, -0.22%.  WALL STREET—Futures are weaker-DOW, -67; S&P, -6.25; NAS, -29.25.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude: -$0.01 @ $57.50; Gold:  +$7.30@ $1,407; $ Index: -.062 @ 97.224
• T-storm ® Weather: The potential for a warmer to much-warmer period is further increased from Fri.-Sat. on as hot upper-level high pressure begins to bubble within U.S. Corn Belt, Delta, & Plains, leaving most areas considerably warmer than normal for at least 7-10 straight days; highs in mid-80s to upper-90s & lows in 70s.  Occasional thunderstorms form in northern areas with this setup, but diminish with southward extent, likely leaving at least southern half of central U.S. drier than normal over next 2 weeks
• CU, up $.0550 @ $4.4425; CZ, up $.05 @ $4.4725. 
• SQ, up $.0450 @ $8.8050; SU, up $.0475 @ $8.87.  Board Crush: $0.98, +3; LY, $1.86
• WU, up $.02 @ $5.17; WZ, up $.02 @ $5.2750. 

CORN/SORGHUM

·      T-storm ® Weather: Seasonable to slightly cool weather dominates through Tue. across central U.S.  Scattered rain affects Plains & western half of Corn Belt Mon.-Tue.; 0.50”-1.50” generally limited to parts of MN, NE, & the Dakotas

• USDA Crop Progress report: Some see a 1-2 point improvement in U.S. corn Good/Excellent; others see ratings unch

·      ATI Research: Combined total of unshipped U.S. export sales of old- and new-crop corn is very near a 14-year low, reflecting strong world competition.  Sep-Nov U.S. corn exports are estimated at 350 mbu v. 633 mbu last year

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 61.8 mbu needed; 10.7 last week.  Milo—2.3 needed; 2.2 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      T-storm ® Weather: Seasonable to slightly cool weather dominates through Tue. across central U.S.  Scattered rain affects Plains & western half of Corn Belt Mon.-Tue.; 0.50”-1.50” generally limited to parts of MN, NE, & the Dakotas

·      ATI Research: Lower Sep 1 Brazil soybean stocks could lead to a 40 mbu rise in U.S. Sep-Nov soybean exports v. 2018

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 37.4 mbu needed; 26.4 last week

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 17.3 mbu needed; 22.4 last week

·      T-storm ® Weather: Rain of 0.50”-1.50” on Mon.-Tue. to be limited to parts of the Dakotas (esp. spring wheat in ND)

ENERGY

·      Mixed: CLQ19, -$0.01 @ $57.50; EBU, +$0.12 @ $64.35; EBU-QCLQ, +.11; RBQ, -.0009; NGQ, +.012; HOQ, -.0008

·      Ethanol price service data was unavailable Friday: Chicago ethanol was up $.0370 Wed to $1.4525; Wed  basis values eased: NYC, -$.0245 @ $.10; Gulf, -$.0070 @ $.10; Dallas, -$.0120 @ $.10; Tampa, -$.0220 @ $.20 LA, -$.0170 @ $.23  

·      Ethanol RINs were weaker Wednesday:  2018’s, -0.75 @ 19 -21; 2019’s, -0.8750 @ 23 -24                                              ​                                 

·      The August RBOB/August ethanol spread lost $.0352 on Friday to close at$.3985/gal 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      &n​bsp;                 

• Choice boxed beef declined $1.58 on Friday to $217.67 and is $1.36 lower compared to a week ago
• August live cattle futures gained $1.55 on Fri. to close at $107.00—highest settlement price for contract since May 29

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $2.01 on Fri. to $72.46 but is still down 43-cents versus a week ago 

·      CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.40 on Fri. to $72.82.  July futures declined $1.425 and are now $0.695 below the index                             

​ Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather